Starting Pitcher Draft Strategy: Strikeouts per 100 Pitches

In a Twitter conversation on Friday, discussing my Friday article on drafting ground ball pitchers who keep the ball on the ground at a 45% rate, strikeout seven or more batters per nine innings, and walk less than three batters per nine innings, a follower reminded me of an article I read several years ago over at Baseball Analyst. The article was written by Rich Lederer, and in his research evaluating starting pitchers based on strikeouts per nine innings, he dug deeper and created strikeouts per pitch, calculated as total strikeouts/innings pitched.

The number that resulted was hard to conceptualize because what did it really mean? So, he decided to multiply this number by 100 to give us strikeouts per 100 pitches:

Strikeouts/innings pitched x 100

Here is his reasoning for the new measurement:

All of us like pitchers who can rack up strikeouts. There is no argument between statheads and the scouting community over the value of missing bats. In a nutshell, Ks are the out of choice. The more, the merrier.

We also know that pitch counts are important. The fewer, the better. As such, it seems logical that combining high strikeout and low pitch totals is a recipe for success . . . The best way to measure such effectiveness is via K/100 pitches. The formula is (strikeouts divided by total pitches) x 100.

With that said, here is a look at the 2013 leaders in strikeouts per 100 pitches (stats courtesy of FanGraphs). The data below includes all starters who pitched 80 or more innings in 2013. I will group them based on K/100 > 7.0, K/100 > 6.0, and so on:

K/100 > 7.00

This group produced an average ERA of 2.58, but includes just four starting pitchers, and they are four of the best. Harvey will miss the 2014 season, but should be back to his normal strikeout ways in 2015. The other three starters in the table above are ranked in my top 10-12 starters for 2014.

K/100 > 6.00 < 7.00

This group of starters (two relievers) produced an average ERA of 3.06, which is pretty darn good. It includes the best pitcher in the game, Clayton Kershaw, as well as several other ace starting pitchers, including Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Adam Wainwright and others. The low ERA in this group belongs to Kershaw at 1.83, with the high ERA (4.34) going to Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija.

Excluding the two relievers , Stammen and Gorzelanny, Samardzija's ERA is an outlier, as the next highest ERA is 3.49, and some of them should be available in the later round of your 2014 drafts, including Tyson Ross, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tony Cingrani and Samardzija.

K/100 > 5.00 < 6.00

This group produced an average ERA of 3.67, with ERAs ranging from Clay Buchholz's 1.74 ERA to Josh Johnson's 6.20 ERA. The list includes several ace-cailber starters like Matt Cain, David Price, Zack Greinke and others, but also includes a large number of starters who will be available in the later rounds of drafts next season, and these are the guys you should target to complete your pitching staff on draft day.

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