2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: Washington Nationals

The prospect staff here at Fake Teams will be taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2014. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. We will be reviewing two teams per week until we are through all 30 teams, and you can see the schedule of when your favorite team will be reviewed below.

System Schedule

AL East	AL Central	AL West	NL East	NL Central	NL West
Baltimore	Chicago	Houston	Atlanta	Chicago (12/23)	Arizona (1/9)
Boston	Cleveland	Los Angeles	Miami	Cincinnati (12/26)	Colorado (1/13)
New York	Detroit	Oakland	New York	Milwaukee (12/30)	Los Angeles (1/16)
Tampa Bay	Kansas City	Seattle	Philadelphia	Pittsburgh (1/2)	San Diego (1/20)
Toronto	Minnesota	Texas	Washington (Today)	St. Louis (1/6)	San Francisco (1/23)

Organizational Overview
By Andrew Ball(@andrew_ball)

Depending on whom you ask, the Washington Nationals very well might have been the most disappointing team in baseball in 2013. Coming off of a 98-win campaign and the team's first playoff appearance since way back in 1981 (when they were still the Montreal Expos), expectations were about as high as they could get in the nation's capital. Unfortunately, big-time contributors like Adam LaRoche, Danny Espinosa, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez all saw their performance regress last season, and new acquisitions Denard Span and Dan Haren weren't enough to keep the team from finishing ten games behind the Braves in the National League East.

Still, the core of Washington's team is as exciting as any across either league. Outside of Mike Trout, Bryce Harper very well could be the most valuable commodity in baseball, and although he's got some ground to make up, it wouldn't be a shock if he ends up the better player once their careers are over. On the pitching side, Stephen Strasburg is essentially the counterpart to Harper and one of the most talented young hurlers in the game today. Both should improve in 2014 and that gives Washington potentially the best outfielder and starter in the National League.

Beyond those two, the offense is loaded with talent including Ian Desmond, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmermann, and NL wOBA and wRC+ leader Jayson Werth. Rendon is another player primed to take a step forward this year after a rookie year that saw him hit league average while playing a new position. Long-term, he'll probably slide back to third base, but for now he's a top option as a middle infielder. The same can be said for Desmond who gets lost in the shuffle at shortstop, but really has solidified himself as one of the better players in the National League.

Pitching-wise, the team boasts one of the best rotations in baseball with Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Zimmermann all producing more than three wins above replacement last year. Add in recent acquisition Doug Fister, who is one of the most underrated pitchers in the game, and there's little doubt that the team will get a sizable contribution from their starters. And the bullpen is nothing to scoff at either, with Rafael Soriano, Tyler Clippard, and Drew Storen providing Matt Williams with three solid late inning options that all have closing experience.

2013 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time prior to September 1st of this year.

Anthony Rendon (at bats), Jhonatan Solano (service time), Tanner Roark (innings), Ian Krol (service time), Taylor Jordan (innings)

Major League Opportunities in 2014
By Andrew Ball(@andrew_ball)

The one downside to the Nationals having such a quality major league roster is that there doesn't appear to be much room for any of their prospects to get playing time this year. The team has well above average major league regulars at all eight positions, and bench players Danny Espinosa, Nate McClouth, Tyler Moore, and Scott Hairston could all start for various clubs around the league. That leaves Brian Goodwin, Michael Taylor, Steven Souza, and Matt Skole in the minors until September more than likely, which isn't necessarily a good thing.

Same story for the pitching staff -- this team is not only loaded with talent, but they are deep in major league quality arms. Taylor Jordan and Tanner Roark would both be in the opening day rotation for many teams, yet with the Nats they're regulated to Triple-A until an injury pops up. Outside of Nate Karns it seems rather unlikely that too many youngsters will find the mound in Washington, though that's not necessarily a bad thing given that their top talents are still a ways away.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
By Jason Hunt(@jasonsbaseball)

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors prior to September 1st.

#1 Lucas Giolito (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
2	0	1.99	1.16	39
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
36.2	0.25	2.20	9.5%	26.5%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
19	R/R	Not On 40 Man Roster (Must Protect After 2016 Season)		Rk, A-

A right handed pitcher out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Studio City, California, Giolito came into his senior year viewed as a possible top overall pick, potentially the first high school righty ever taken there. Unfortunately, Giolito left his start on March 6th due to an injury, and never stepped foot on a high school field again. The diagnosis was a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament, but he did not have surgery immediately. Draft day approached, and when Giolito was unable to get back on the mound before the draft, the questions about how far he would fall on draft day got even louder.

The Nationals took a shot on Giolito at #16 overall, a very nice get in a player that had projected to go top five at the start of the year. They signed him to a bonus of just under $3 million, and he was able to throw two innings for the team's GCL affiliate in 2012. Unfortunately, the same UCL injury reared its' head again, this time as the ligament was torn, and would require Tommy John surgery. Fast forward to July of this year, when Giolito returned to the GCL, and was able to make a total of 11 starts during the 2013 season.

Giolito's initial claim to fame has been his fastball, which routinely sits in the mid-to-high 90s, and touches 100 at times even after the surgery. He is one of the few prospects in the minors with two pitches projected with grades of 70 or higher, as his curveball is an absolutely filthy pitch as well. As if that weren't enough to make him stand out as a prospect, his changeup has the potential to be another above-average to plus offering as well, but reports on the pitch note that it still needs work to get to that level. He also has shown excellent command of all three pitches, and gets rave reviews about his maturity and overall makeup.

Giolito remains a dream at this point, the possibility of a true ace starting pitcher that has yet to pitch in full season ball. He could be a top 10 fantasy starting pitcher if he reaches his ceiling, with the downside that he ends up as a mid-rotation starting pitcher. He'll likely start the year in full season Low-A this year, and could potentially be a quick mover if it goes well there. I would put an ETA of 2016 on him as of right now, with establishing himself in the rotation more likely in 2017.

Taken by the Nationals in the 4th round of the 2010 draft, Cole has had the rare pleasure to be traded from, and then back, to the same team while still in the minor leagues. Cole threw just one inning that year as a professional, but was sent to full season Low-A in 2011, where he struck out 108 in just 89 innings pitched. That offseason, Cole was one of four prospects sent to Oakland in exchange for another pitcher traded to and from an organization, lefty Gio Gonzalez.

The 2012 season was a struggle for Cole, starting out with seven losses in eight starts along with a 7.82 ERA and 60 hits allowed in just 38 innings at High-A Stockton. That performance earned him a trip back to Low-A, where he was much better in 19 starts. Surprisingly, the A's sent Cole back to the Nationals as a part of a three team trade that sent Mike Morse out to Seattle, and Cole didn't miss a beat in his return engagement. A strong performance in 18 starts led to a late-July promotion to AA, where Cole flashed dominance over his last seven starts.

Cole features a mid-90s fastball to go along with a changeup which profiles as a potential above-average offering and a curveball which remains a work in progress at this point. He throws from a 3/4 arm slot, and it appears from video of his delivery that it can be difficult at times to repeat. How much progress he makes on improving his curveball could determine how effective he will be long-term, but there is the potential for a mid-rotation starting pitcher in there. He reached AA in 2013, and while I think he starts the season there again in 2014, I don't think he's there all year long, and could get a look in Washington by season's end.

Brian Goodwin was drafted by the Nationals in the supplemental first round back in 2011, but did not sign soon enough to play that year. He was sent directly to full season Low-A to start his pro career, and hit .324/.438/.542 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases in just 58 games there. The organization skipped him past High-A, opting instead to send him to AA Harrisburg. He struggled to hit for average there, but did still show power (5 HR, 8 2B) and speed (3 SB) in 42 games to finish the year. He returned to Harrisburg this year, and while the batting average appeared a bit lower than anticipated, he still showed the power/speed combination that led our prospect staff to rank him as the #10 outfield prospect last offseason.

Goodwin is easily the prospect with the most tools in the Nationals' system currently. He is a true five tool talent, and while his above-average defense in center field and solid throwing arm aren't likely to be useful to many fantasy owners, it's good to see that it will likely help him out should the bat falter somewhat. His speed is considered above-average to potentially plus, and should help him to approach 20 stolen bases in the major leagues with relative ease. He isn't likely to be a major power threat as he continues toward the bigs, but it's possible we could see 10-15 home runs most years, with an outside shot at 20 home runs a few years. I personally love seeing the high walk rate, even if it is paired with a high strikeout rate, and there are signs in his month-to-month splits that he is improving on the strikeouts. The biggest concern for me is his platoon split, which point to a hitter who has struggled pretty mightily against same-side pitching.

Goodwin has the potential to be a star for fantasy, providing double digit speed and power totals to go along with a solid batting average and high run totals. The questions about his ability to hit lefties, as well as the contact issues related to the high strikeout rate, could keep him from reaching that potential. He'll likely head to AAA to start the 2014 season, and could be in line for a call up at some point during the year.

It's a bit hard to rank a player that only appeared in two games this year so high, but the potential for a strong fantasy contributor remains in spite of the lost development time. Skole was drafted in the 5th round in 2011 out of Georgia Tech, and quickly made an impact with the Nationals' short-season team in the NY-Penn League. He split the 2012 season between the organizations' two single-A affiliates, clubbing 27 home runs and hitting .291/.426/.559 in just 119 games. The team moved him aggressively again to start 2013, sending him to AA despite playing just 18 games at High-A. Unfortunately, a fluke injury where he tore his non-throwing elbow and broke his wrist in a collision at first base ended his season. He was able to return to the Arizona Fall League by the end of the year, where he hit three home runs in 64 plate appearances.

Skole's calling card in the majors is going to be his bat, and specifically his power potential. He could be a 25-30 home run bat in the major leagues, and pairs that with an excellent understanding of the strike zone. He has posted excellent walk rates at all his stops in the minors, even reaching over 20% in multiple seasons. Both the power and the eye come with a high strikeout rate as well, but it doesn't seem to keep him from making enough contact to provide value. His defense is considered passable at third base, but will likely defer to better defenders like Ryan Zimmerman or Anthony Rendon and end up at first base instead.

It wouldn't surprise me if the organization continued to push Skole up the chain despite playing so little at AA, and I think he ends up getting a shot in the majors at some point during the 2014 season. It remains to be seen what the Nationals intend to do long-term with both Zimmerman and Rendon, although it sounds like Zimmerman will see some time at first base this year. If the team keeps Zim at third, look for Skole to get a shot at the starting first base job in 2015.

#5 Drew Ward (3B)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.292	24	1	28	2
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
199	0.402	0.387	12.6%	22.1%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
19	L/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2017 Season)		Rk

A 3rd round pick in this year's draft, Ward took an unusual path to get to the professional ranks. Ward was actually a high school junior this year, and made the effort to graduate early and make himself eligible for this year's draft rather than the 2014 draft as was expected. The move paid off for Ward, as he signed for a bonus of $850K. He appeared in 49 games with the Nationals' GCL affiliate this year, posting a high walk rate to go with a good batting average.

Ward's calling card will be his power, as it has the potential to be above-average down the line. How much it develops will determine a lot of his value for fantasy owners, as there are concerns about many other parts of his game. He has shown an advanced approach in the professional ranks so far, and reports on him coming into the draft agree with that sentiment. He played shortstop primarily in high school, but was moved to third base after the draft. It sounds like he has the potential to stick at third base long-term, but it's still early with that transition. He isn't expected to provide value in the stolen base category, likely only a token one or two a season at best.

Ward could see time in full season ball in 2014, and has the potential to be an impact bat at a corner infield spot down the line. He's still a long way from the majors, but the dream is that we see him hitting .275-.285 with 25+ home runs for the Nationals in a few years.

#6 Sammy Solis (LHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
2	0	3.34	1.32	43
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
59.2	0.46	1.18	7.8%	17.7%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
25	R/L	On 40-Man Roster (3 Options Remaining)		A+

Solis' development as a prospect has been slow going at times, as he has still not pitched above High-A. Taken in the first round of the 2010 draft, Solis has missed time due to multiple injuries, with the most notable being Tommy John surgery which knocked him out for the 2012 season. He was sent to High-A in May 2013 when his rehab was complete, and made 13 starts there before a 29 inning stint in the Arizona Fall League to wind up his year.

Solis has the potential to have three average or better offerings, including a fastball which sits in the low 90s, an above-average changeup, and a breaking ball that remains a work in progress. His delivery is repeatable, and gets good downward plane from a 3/4 arm angle. The biggest questions surround his health, having already had surgery on his elbow and suffered through a number of other injuries dating back to college.

Solis' timetable could be sped up given that he was added to the 40 man roster this offseason, and is already 25 years old. He seems likely to head to AA to start the 2014 season, and could potentially debut before the end of the year. He can be a mid-rotation type starter if it all clicks, and would likely be a back-end starter for fantasy owners if that turns out to be the case, providing decent but not amazing strikeout totals to go with solid ratios.

Drafted in the 12th round back in 2009, Karns has taken a long time to develop, unfortunately due to injuries. He did not pitch as a professional until 2011 after tearing his labrum after signing. He threw 55 innings between the Nationals' two short-season affiliates that year, struggling some with his control (5.4 BB/9).

He made his full season debut in 2012, and emerged as a top pitching prospect within the Nationals' organization with his performance that year. He split the season that year between both levels of A-ball, striking out 148 and walking 47 in just 116 innings pitched. Moved up to AA to start the 2013 season, Karns made nine starts before getting called up to take the place of the injured Ross Detwiler. He made three starts for the big club, but was hit around pretty good and returned to AA for the rest of the year.

His fastball is considered his best offering, sitting in the mid-90s and generating a ton of grounders due to heavy sink. He also features a plus curveball, but struggles with his changeup. If the changeup does not develop further, it is likely that he ends up as a bullpen candidate given the two plus pitches. He has the potential to be another mid-rotation starter if he can improve the changeup, providing high strikeout totals with some risk involving his ratios.

Karns will likely head to AAA to start the year, but could be one of the first starters called should the team need a spot starter due to injury. With no clear opening in the rotation for the foreseeable future, it's possible that the team could look to trade him, but it seems unlikely given his injury history.

#8 Michael Taylor (OF)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.263	79	10	87	51
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
581	0.340	0.426	9.5%	22.5%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
22	R/R	On 40 Man Roster (3 Options Remaining)		A+

Not the prospect acquired by the A's a few years ago, Taylor was a 6th round draft pick of the Nationals back in 2009. He struggled in his first season as a pro (2010), hitting .199/.276/.298 across 55 games. After hitting 13 home runs and stealing 23 bases in 2011, Taylor was moved up to High-A for the 2012 season. He wasn't able to repeat that kind of offensive performance there, and returned to the level for a second go-around in 2013. He had his best season at the plate so far, posting career bests in games played, doubles (41), stolen bases, walk rate, and batting average, along with wOBA (.351) and wRC+ (113).

Taylor is going to reach the majors based on his defensive profile, as he is expected to be an above-average defender out in center field, using his plus speed to help track down fly balls. While that will help him move up the system, it doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy. There are questions about Taylor's ability to translate his power potential and plus speed into production for fantasy owners, as his hit tool (specifically his contact ability) remains suspect.

The organization had to protect Taylor from the rule 5 draft this offseason, so the clock on his time to the majors is ticking to some extent. With no openings in the majors for 2014 likely, the team can give Taylor more time in the minors to continue his development, and could potentially be a candidate to replace Denard Span in 2015. Even if he struggles to provide batting average, he could provide at least reasonable stolen base totals in a full time role, and could be a threat to steal 30-40 bases in the majors if he hits some.

#9 Steven Souza (OF)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.297	57	15	46	22
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
338	0.396	0.548	13.0%	23.7%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
24	R/R	On 40 Man Roster (3 Options Remaining)		AA

The Nationals drafted Souza out of a Washington high school in 2007, an extremely toolsy third baseman that the organization converted to the outfield after the 2011 season. However, his development path has been bumpy, as there were questions about his maturity as well as a 50-game suspension for a positive PED test in 2011. His 2012 season was an unqualified success, hitting .297 with 23 home runs and 14 stolen bases between Low and High-A. He moved up to AA for the 2013 season, and was able to keep up the performance despite missing nearly a month due to an oblique injury. He finished up the campaign with a stint in the AFL, hitting .357 with a home run.

Souza remains a potential five-tool prospect, although not without risk. His best tool is power, which projects as above-average to plus potentially down the line. He also has above-average speed, and has been able to translate that into stolen bases at every stop. He profiles as a corner outfielder long term, and should be able to stick at either of those positions. The question surrounds his hit tool, but the performance at AA helps ease those concerns somewhat. The maturity questions appear to have been resolved at this point, but the potential for injuries remain given that he has not played in more than 97 games in a season since 2011.

He will likely head to AAA for the 2014 season, and with Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper locked into both corner spots for the foreseeable future, his path to playing time is unclear as of now. The potential for a 20 HR/20 SB outfielder is there, but it may not happen in Washington given those obstacles.

Jokes about this picture aside, Matt Purke has been on prospect radars since he was initially drafted by the Rangers back in 2009 with the 14th overall pick. The lefty ended up not signing with the Rangers after a pre-draft deal worth $6 million was not approved by the commissioner's office, who were running the Rangers at the time. He attended TCU, but after going 16-0 as a freshman, missed significant time in his draft year due to a shoulder injury. Amid concerns about that injury, he fell in the draft to the 3rd round, where the Nationals scooped him up for an over-slot bonus of $2.55 million. The team sent him to Low-A Hagerstown to start the 2012 season, but he was shut down after just 15 innings pitched as the shoulder injury reared its' ugly head again. He ended up having surgery on the shoulder, but was back in Hagerstown by the end of May 2013.

Purke features a three pitch repertoire, all of which have the potential to be at least average or better. His fastball was sitting in the low-90s in the most recent reports, and I wonder if it moves up a little more as he continues to build up innings. His changeup is considered an above-average offering, and was commanding it well in the Arizona Fall League ($). He also features a curveball which shows good break, but isn't necessarily going to be a key strikeout pitch for him. The delivery is very fluid and easy, and reports on his makeup are excellent as well.

At this point, Purke seems like he is a lottery ticket. There is still the potential that he turns it all around and shows what put him in the discussion for the top overall pick in a deep 2011 draft, but those odds are getting longer each year. He still has a more realistic mid-rotation ceiling, and could be moved quickly given that he will need to be added to the 40-man roster next offseason. Look for him to head to AA to start the 2014 campaign.

Other Interesting Prospects
By Jason Hunt (@jasonsbaseball)

Zach Walters - Walters presents an interesting case as a prospect evaluator: Do you look at the 29 home runs he hit last year and say it is a breakout? Or do you see the fact that he hit just 25 in the three seasons prior to last year and wonder if it is a total fluke? Walters reached the Majors last year at the end of the season, but it doesn't seem that he will be likely to get a shot at a starting job with the Nationals any time soon. Given that he can play shortstop reasonably well, look for him to end up filling the utility infielder role for the big club in 2014 if Danny Espinosa doesn't.

Jake Johansen - Johansen was the Nationals' top draft pick this year, albeit in the 2nd round overall. The Nationals are working him as a starting pitcher right now, and if he can continue to develop in that role could be a mid-rotation starter. There are questions about how well his repertoire translates to that kind of role, and it is possible he ends up in the back end of a bullpen as a result.

Austin Voth - A 5th round draft pick this year, Voth pitched well across three levels, albeit in a small sample size. The range on Voth is pretty wide, as he could be a back-end of the rotation starter down the line, or end up as a middle reliever. The low walk rate matches up with reports that he has excellent command, but it sounds like his secondary offerings are extremely raw at this point.

Eury Perez - Perez finished up the 2013 season with 7 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 96 games at AAA before a late season callup. It's hard to believe in his bat as a viable fantasy option given the previous lack of power (just four home runs in the previous three seasons), and how much his low walk rate will affect his ability to steal bases. He could end up as the fourth outfielder for the Nationals this season, and as of now is only worth a flier in reserve rounds in deep or NL-only leagues.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Andrew Ball is a contributing writer for Beyond the Box Score and Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @Andrew_Ball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

Matt Mattingly is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @MattMattingly81

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
Federal Baseball
Vimeo
Youtube