/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/25253205/20130715_mjr_su5_249.0.jpg)
There are two things that fantasy managers want when they draft their teams: a productive player and a durable player. These attributes, more than any other, will determine how far your team will go in the playoffs. Since I believe this to be true I wanted to look at the state of each position on the diamond to see which positions had the most offensively productive players and which positions had the most durable players. Ray offered his thoughts on a similar idea using 5x5 categories and comparing the numbers from 2012 to 2013. It's a worthy exercise and you should check it out.
Although my methodology is a little different (and I'll explain why) we have the same goal in mind: to determine which positions you should draft first and which positions you on which you should wait. I tend to use two main categories to determine offensive value, namely wOBA and wRC+. I realize that these have no predictive value per se and can be difficult to translate to 5x5 categories. They just tell you what happened; who was above or below league average offensively. Really, that's all I care about...production. Counting stats will vary from year to year based on the team that surrounds the player as well as a number of other variables (e.g., park factors, weather, health, etc.). However, wOBA and wRC+ just tells me a player's offensive productivity without predicting what could happen in the future.
Today, we're going to look at the catcher position. I looked at all the catchers with a minimum of 400 PAs from 2011-13 (taking into account the beating these guys take on a daily basis, I felt like 400 PAs was a fair definition of durable) and sorted them by wOBA and wRC+. This basically tells me if the players at each position have trended positively (i.e., more durable and productive) or negatively (i.e., less durable and productive) over the past three seasons. This may give us some insight into how important it is to draft this position early or late in 2014.
Finally, before I finish, I will identify one player to target and one player to avoid in deep league drafts this year, for your further contemplation and scrutiny. So, without further ado:
2011 Stats
Name | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mike Napoli | Rangers | 113 | 432 | 30 | 72 | 75 | 4 | 13.40% | 19.70% | 0.312 | 0.344 | 0.32 | 0.414 | 0.631 | 0.445 | 179 |
2 | Alex Avila | Tigers | 141 | 551 | 19 | 63 | 82 | 3 | 13.20% | 23.80% | 0.211 | 0.366 | 0.295 | 0.389 | 0.506 | 0.384 | 140 |
3 | Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 139 | 518 | 14 | 55 | 65 | 4 | 6.40% | 8.50% | 0.16 | 0.311 | 0.305 | 0.349 | 0.465 | 0.353 | 126 |
4 | Miguel Montero | Diamondbacks | 140 | 553 | 18 | 65 | 86 | 1 | 8.50% | 17.50% | 0.187 | 0.317 | 0.282 | 0.351 | 0.469 | 0.353 | 118 |
5 | Carlos Santana | Indians | 155 | 658 | 27 | 84 | 79 | 5 | 14.70% | 20.20% | 0.217 | 0.263 | 0.239 | 0.351 | 0.457 | 0.351 | 124 |
6 | Brian McCann | Braves | 128 | 527 | 24 | 51 | 71 | 3 | 10.80% | 16.90% | 0.195 | 0.287 | 0.27 | 0.351 | 0.466 | 0.35 | 122 |
7 | Chris Iannetta | Rockies | 112 | 426 | 14 | 51 | 55 | 6 | 16.40% | 20.90% | 0.177 | 0.276 | 0.238 | 0.37 | 0.414 | 0.348 | 105 |
8 | Matt Wieters | Orioles | 139 | 551 | 22 | 72 | 68 | 1 | 8.70% | 15.20% | 0.188 | 0.276 | 0.262 | 0.328 | 0.45 | 0.34 | 110 |
9 | Wilson Ramos | Nationals | 113 | 435 | 15 | 48 | 52 | 8.70% | 17.50% | 0.177 | 0.297 | 0.267 | 0.334 | 0.445 | 0.335 | 111 | |
10 | Carlos Ruiz | Phillies | 132 | 472 | 6 | 49 | 40 | 1 | 10.20% | 10.20% | 0.1 | 0.308 | 0.283 | 0.371 | 0.383 | 0.333 | 108 |
11 | Russell Martin | Yankees | 125 | 476 | 18 | 57 | 65 | 8 | 10.50% | 17.00% | 0.17 | 0.252 | 0.237 | 0.324 | 0.408 | 0.324 | 100 |
12 | Geovany Soto | Cubs | 125 | 474 | 17 | 46 | 54 | 9.50% | 26.20% | 0.183 | 0.28 | 0.228 | 0.31 | 0.411 | 0.317 | 94 |
2012 Stats
Name | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Buster Posey | Giants | 148 | 610 | 24 | 78 | 103 | 1 | 11.30% | 15.70% | 0.213 | 0.368 | 0.336 | 0.408 | 0.549 | 0.406 | 163 |
2 | Carlos Ruiz | Phillies | 114 | 421 | 16 | 56 | 68 | 4 | 6.90% | 11.90% | 0.215 | 0.339 | 0.325 | 0.394 | 0.54 | 0.398 | 151 |
3 | Joe Mauer | Twins | 147 | 641 | 10 | 81 | 85 | 8 | 14.00% | 13.70% | 0.127 | 0.364 | 0.319 | 0.416 | 0.446 | 0.376 | 139 |
4 | Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 138 | 563 | 22 | 65 | 76 | 12 | 8.00% | 9.80% | 0.186 | 0.316 | 0.315 | 0.373 | 0.501 | 0.375 | 139 |
5 | Miguel Montero | Diamondbacks | 141 | 573 | 15 | 65 | 88 | 12.70% | 22.70% | 0.152 | 0.362 | 0.286 | 0.391 | 0.438 | 0.364 | 124 | |
6 | Wilin Rosario | Rockies | 117 | 426 | 28 | 67 | 71 | 4 | 5.90% | 23.20% | 0.26 | 0.289 | 0.27 | 0.312 | 0.53 | 0.356 | 109 |
7 | A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox | 135 | 520 | 27 | 68 | 77 | 5.40% | 15.00% | 0.223 | 0.28 | 0.278 | 0.326 | 0.501 | 0.351 | 119 | |
8 | Mike Napoli | Rangers | 108 | 417 | 24 | 53 | 56 | 1 | 13.40% | 30.00% | 0.241 | 0.273 | 0.227 | 0.343 | 0.469 | 0.349 | 115 |
9 | Carlos Santana | Indians | 143 | 609 | 18 | 72 | 76 | 3 | 14.90% | 16.60% | 0.168 | 0.278 | 0.252 | 0.365 | 0.42 | 0.344 | 121 |
10 | A.J. Ellis | Dodgers | 133 | 505 | 13 | 44 | 52 | 12.90% | 21.20% | 0.144 | 0.329 | 0.27 | 0.373 | 0.414 | 0.341 | 118 | |
11 | Ryan Doumit | Twins | 134 | 528 | 18 | 56 | 75 | 5.50% | 18.60% | 0.186 | 0.306 | 0.275 | 0.32 | 0.461 | 0.332 | 110 | |
12 | Matt Wieters | Orioles | 144 | 593 | 23 | 67 | 83 | 3 | 10.10% | 18.90% | 0.186 | 0.274 | 0.249 | 0.329 | 0.435 | 0.331 | 106 |
13 | Alex Avila | Tigers | 116 | 434 | 9 | 42 | 48 | 2 | 14.10% | 24.00% | 0.142 | 0.313 | 0.243 | 0.352 | 0.384 | 0.327 | 104 |
14 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Red Sox | 121 | 448 | 25 | 55 | 59 | 8.50% | 31.00% | 0.232 | 0.265 | 0.222 | 0.288 | 0.454 | 0.319 | 96 | |
15 | Russell Martin | Yankees | 133 | 485 | 21 | 50 | 53 | 6 | 10.90% | 19.60% | 0.192 | 0.222 | 0.211 | 0.311 | 0.403 | 0.316 | 95 |
2013 Stats
Name | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Joe Mauer | Twins | 113 | 508 | 11 | 62 | 47 | 12.00% | 17.50% | 0.153 | 0.383 | 0.324 | 0.404 | 0.476 | 0.383 | 144 | |
2 | Carlos Santana | Indians | 154 | 642 | 20 | 75 | 74 | 3 | 14.50% | 17.10% | 0.187 | 0.301 | 0.268 | 0.377 | 0.455 | 0.364 | 135 |
3 | Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 136 | 541 | 12 | 68 | 80 | 3 | 5.50% | 10.20% | 0.158 | 0.338 | 0.319 | 0.359 | 0.477 | 0.362 | 134 |
4 | Jason Castro | Astros | 120 | 491 | 18 | 63 | 56 | 2 | 10.20% | 26.50% | 0.209 | 0.351 | 0.276 | 0.35 | 0.485 | 0.361 | 130 |
5 | Buster Posey | Giants | 148 | 595 | 15 | 61 | 72 | 2 | 10.10% | 11.80% | 0.156 | 0.312 | 0.294 | 0.371 | 0.45 | 0.357 | 133 |
6 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Red Sox | 121 | 470 | 14 | 68 | 65 | 4 | 9.10% | 29.60% | 0.193 | 0.372 | 0.273 | 0.338 | 0.466 | 0.349 | 117 |
7 | Wilin Rosario | Rockies | 121 | 466 | 21 | 63 | 79 | 4 | 3.20% | 23.40% | 0.194 | 0.344 | 0.292 | 0.315 | 0.486 | 0.348 | 107 |
8 | Brian McCann | Braves | 102 | 402 | 20 | 43 | 57 | 9.70% | 16.40% | 0.205 | 0.261 | 0.256 | 0.336 | 0.461 | 0.347 | 122 | |
9 | Jonathan Lucroy | Brewers | 147 | 580 | 18 | 59 | 82 | 9 | 7.90% | 11.90% | 0.175 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.455 | 0.345 | 118 |
10 | Welington Castillo | Cubs | 113 | 428 | 8 | 41 | 32 | 2 | 7.90% | 22.70% | 0.124 | 0.347 | 0.274 | 0.349 | 0.397 | 0.331 | 106 |
11 | Salvador Perez | Royals | 138 | 526 | 13 | 48 | 79 | 4.00% | 12.00% | 0.141 | 0.311 | 0.292 | 0.323 | 0.433 | 0.329 | 105 | |
12 | Russell Martin | Pirates | 127 | 506 | 15 | 51 | 55 | 9 | 11.50% | 21.30% | 0.151 | 0.266 | 0.226 | 0.327 | 0.377 | 0.315 | 101 |
Observations:
1. The overall number of players that qualified (from 2011-13) goes 12 - 15 - 12, so that doesn't tell us much as far as trends. Catcher looks about as durable and productive as it always has been.
2. Only three players qualified all three years: Yadier Molina, Carlos Santana, and...wait for it...Russell Martin.
Rebound candidate/Target: Miguel Montero
Howard Bender notes Montero's decline, but the beauty of this is that his value has tanked and he has been a VERY productive guy before. All I'm saying in double-digit HRs is still in the picture, and I don't think he'll kill you in any one category.
Avoid: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Who's the only catcher to strike out at a 30% clip the past three years? Yeah. Moving to that cavern of a park with that lineup will not help him. Just say no and pick up Russell Martin later.
Opine below as you see fit. Who are you targeting this year deep-league managers? Follow me on Twitter (@agape4argentina) and be looking for the 1b article soon.