2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: Philadelphia Phillies

The prospect staff here at Fake Teams will be taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2014. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. We will be reviewing two teams per week until we are through all 30 teams, and you can see the schedule of when your favorite team will be reviewed below.

System Schedule

AL East	AL Central	AL West	NL East	NL Central	NL West
Baltimore	Chicago	Houston	Atlanta	Chicago (12/23)	Arizona (1/9)
Boston	Cleveland	Los Angeles	Miami	Cincinnati (12/26)	Colorado (1/13)
New York	Detroit	Oakland	New York	Milwaukee (12/30)	Los Angeles (1/16)
Tampa Bay	Kansas City	Seattle	Philadelphia (Today)	Pittsburgh (1/2)	San Diego (1/20)
Toronto	Minnesota	Texas	Washington (12/19)	St. Louis (1/6)	San Francisco (1/23)

Organizational Overview
By Brian Creagh(@briancreagh)

"This too shall pass". These words should be muttered over and over again by Phillies fans as they look on at the inevitable ending of Ruben Amaro's career as general manager of the Phillies. There are two years left on Ruben Amaro's contract and every day that passes and he refuses to accept the need to rebuild, the larger the hole he is digging for the next GM to climb out of. The Phillies are old, oft-injured, and financially constrained through at least 2015 when Utley, Byrd, and Papelbon come off the books. It is often difficult to get a firm grasp on the depth of a front office's analytical devotion, but given the recent comments of RAJ, it's difficult to imagine they are anywhere near the cutting edge. When discussing the merits of Kyle Kendrick vs. Matt Garza, Amaro had this to say of Kendrick:

It's amazing. We talked about it this morning. He has 64 wins. Do you know how many wins Garza has? Sixty-seven. He's benefited from some run support and defense. But wins are wins.

I don't know much, but using career wins as a key metric to player evaluations puts a GM on the fast track to the unemployment line. The poor methodology is starting to catch up to him after succeeding in the first three years of his tenure, mainly off the solid foundation built by Pat Gillick. As the team has aged, Amaro has done little to stock the pipeline with fresh talent and the downward trend in win totals is starting to reflect it. The NL East figures to be strong going forward, and the Phillies are going to have to take their lumps and possibly blow the whole thing up in order to return to playoff contention.

The organization did make a couple of solid moves that could offer hope for the future. I love the pick of J.P. Crawford and believe the ceiling for him is that of a superstar. The Miguel Gonzalez signing is also a high risk/high reward move, but part of me sees this as more of an attempt at a quick-fix solution since Gonzalez is already 27 years old and doesn't represent a true investment in youth overseas. Regardless, it's a step in the right direction for an organization void of young talent.

This off-season the Phillies opted to reload instead of rebuild, and the result was the signing of multiple veteran free agents, none of which are worthy of getting excited about for fantasy purposes: Marlon Byrd ($16MM/2 years), Carlos Ruiz ($26MM/3 years), Wil Nieves (1.25MM/1 year), Roberto Hernandez ($4.5MM/1 year), and two intriguing minor league deals in Brad Lincoln and Reid Brignac. None of these players project to be a factor in standard 12 team leagues, so there isn't much to see here.

2013 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time prior to September 1st of this year.

Darin Ruf (at bats), Cody Asche (at bats), Jonathan Pettibone (innings), Jake Diekman (service time), Tyler Cloyd (innings), Justin de Fratus (service time)

Major League Opportunities in 2014
By Brian Creagh (@briancreagh)

Amaro was recently quoted for saying, "We should be contending with this kind of payroll, at $165 or $170 million, wherever it shakes out to be," and currently after projecting the arbitration eligible players, the Phillies will sit right around $165 million. I expect the Phillies' Opening Day roster to look very similar to the one we see now, and any openings in the lineup or rotation will be filled internally or by another veteran at the league minimum.

The most glaring hole or opportunity on the roster is in the back end of the rotation. Miguel Gonzalez and Roberto Hernandez currently project to fill in the #4 and #5 roles, but there's also some talk of Gonzalez spending some time in the minor leagues and Roberto Hernandez is leaving Tampa Bay where he was forced to the bullpen at the end of the season. Fantasy owners should be hoping Jesse Biddle gets a shot to fill one of these rotation spots. Biddle is the best arm in the Phillies minor league system. and after spending all of 2013 in AA, there is a case to be made he is ready to a big league debut at 22 years old. Adam Morgan is another intriguing arm that is knocking on the door. Ethan Martin is the final contender for a spot and he received a 40 inning cup of coffee last season that came with mixed results. The 25% K% is very useful for fantasy owners, but when mixed with a 14% walk rate, the damage he does in WHIP nullifies the strikeout value.

The offense for Philadelphia is almost set in stone. The only real opportunity for a prospect to break in to the fold is at 3B where young guns Cody Asche and Maikel Franco will compete for the starters gig. Asche is the favorite heading into spring training. He is two years older than Franco and held his own in 50 games for the Phillies last season. Franco's power gives him the higher ceiling of the two and makes him the more intriguing fantasy option, but he only played half a season at AA and needs more time in the minors before he's ready to handle the hot corner in Philadelphia.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
By Andrew Ball(@andrew_ball)

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors prior to September 1st.

#1 Maikel Franco (3B)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.320	89	31	103	1
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
581	0.356	0.569	5.2%	12.0%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
21	R/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2014 Season)		A+, AA

Despite running a pedestrian 7.7 60-yard dash as a Dominican teenager, the Phillies saw enough potential in Franco and his hitting ability to sign him for $100,000 in 2010. After signing, Franco spent the majority of his first two years in short season leagues before heading off to the South Atlantic League for the 2012 season. Over the first three months in Lakewood, Franco appeared overmatched and managed to hit just .216 against the advanced completion. But then, curiously, around the first of July something seemed to click and Franco finished the year by hitting .357 with 26 extra-base hits in his final 58 games, and he hasn't slowed down since. In 2013, Franco was named Philadelphia's Minor League Player of the Year after posting a .320/.356/.569 line with 31 home runs and 103 runs driven in between Clearwater and Reading.

His game really starts and ends with the power, which ranks among the best in the minor leagues. Franco hits them high and he hits them far, thanks to high quality bat speed and powerful forearms. He's very aggressive at the plate -- sometimes too aggressive -- but for a power hitter he makes a ton of hard contact and he struck out just 70 times last season. He doesn't walk a ton, a trait that works hand in hand with his aggression and shouldn't work against him as long as he can keep stinging the baseball with the same ferocity as he's shown to this point. He could stand to take a few more pitches, but it certainly appears that Franco has the tools to be a very special player at the plate, putting up .285, 30+ home run seasons for years to come.

Defensively, he's done enough to stick at third so far. His actions, hands, and arm strength are all good enough to play at the hot corner; it's just his foot speed and range that really give pause when projecting his future position. Part of it will depend on the development of Cody Asche as well because if Asche turns into an above average hitter in the big leagues, Franco will likely slide to first to keep both of them in the lineup. Although his bat will play at either spot, Franco just isn't as valuable in fantasy leagues if it's at first base. Look for him to start the season back in Double-A, and barring a setback we should see him in Philadelphia before season's end.

The ultimate home-grown talent for the Phillies, Biddle grew up and played his amateur baseball just 20 minutes from Citizen's Bank Park. That allowed Philadelphia to get a ton of looks at him during his senior year of high school and the team gladly scooped him up with their first round pick in that year's draft. Biddle is one of the top southpaw pitching prospects in the minors, combining pitchability, athleticism, and stuff in a 6-foot-4 frame that looks able to handle the heavy workloads of starting in the majors.

Biddle can run his fastball up to 94 with ease, sitting in the low 90's with that natural lefty run that the baseball world has grown accustomed to. The heater sets up his curveball, a giant overhand breaker that reminds many of Barry Zito's hook due to the shape and speed of the pitch. He also throws a slider and a changeup, though neither is particularly special at present. This past season, Biddle spent the entire year in Double-A Reading as a 21-year-old. Despite dealing with a case of whooping cough and some minor plantar fasciitis throughout the year, the lefty never missed a start and finished third in the league with 154 strikeouts and led the circuit in opponent batting average at .210.

Where he struggles is in the area of control and command. Biddle also topped the Eastern League in walks with 82, and for his minor league career he's allowed more than four free passes per nine innings. His stuff is good, but it's not good enough to get away with that kind of wildness in the big leagues. Part of his command troubles stem from his inconsistencies in his delivery between the fastball and the curveball, so the hope is that cleaning those up will help him moving forward.

On the plus side, looking at his big, strapping frame, it's easy to say that Biddle will be a starter once he gets to the big leagues, and he has a chance to pitch at the front of a big league rotation. He'll begin the year in the rotation of the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs with his sights on joining Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee at CBP before long.

#3 Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
0	0	0.00	0.00	0
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
0	0.00	0	0.00	0.00
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
27	R/R	On 40 Man Roster (3 Options Remaining)		DNP

Gonzalez isn't a typical prospect, as he's a 26-year-old Cuban defector that assumedly will slot right into Philadelphia's rotation in 2014. The right-hander was initially signed to a six-year, $48 million contract, but after a physical, the deal was reworked to a three-year, $12 million commitment instead.

As is the case with most Cuban players, scouts are a bit divided on his future. Gonzalez works with a 90-94 mph fastball that touches 96, a fringy breaking ball, an improving changeup, and an above-average splitter. He also added a cutter very recently which gives him another weapon against left-handed hitters. His command wavers from time to time, especially at the upper ends of the velocity spectrum, and he has shown a tendency to get short and throw uphill. That said, he's pitched as the ace of the Cuban national team in several large tournaments and he has the frame and mentality to succeed in a big league rotation -- he just might have some growing pains seeing that he hasn't pitched much over the last two years.

Gonzalez lacks the big time ceiling of players like Crawford, Quinn, and Altherr, but he's big league ready now and he very well might turn into an above average big league starter. I probably wouldn't be the one to reach for him in 2014 given his recent time off, but there's some upside in the strikeout department if he does nail down a rotation spot in spring training.

#4 JP Crawford (SS)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.308	34	1	21	14
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
228	0.405	0.400	14.0%	15.4%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
18	L/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2017 Season)		Rk, A

The son of a professional football player and the cousin of Dodgers' outfielder Carl Crawford, J.P. is exactly the type of athlete you'd expect given his bloodlines. From very early on, Crawford stood out as the top shortstop available in the 2013 draft and Philadelphia scooped him up with the 16th overall selection. In his brief pro debut, he hit .308/.405/.400 in the GCL and SAL, drawing high marks from managers in both circuits.

The first thing that stands out about Crawford is his play at shortstop. His athleticism is ever evident in the field and it looks like he'll be an above average defender with soft hands, a strong arm, and outstanding range to his glove side. Offensively, Crawford hits from the left-side with an advanced approach that allowed him to walk nearly as often as he struck out during his debut. He makes a ton of hard contact and though his swing can get long at times, it's reasonable to expect high batting averages and on base numbers at maturation. Unfortunately he'll probably never offer much in the power department and he's more of a 20-25 stolen base type than a true burner.

By all accounts, many evaluators already feel that Crawford will develop into a star. Replacement level at shortstop is quite low right now and a shortstop that can hit for average, get on base, and play defense is a valuable commodity -- just not necessarily in a fantasy sense, which pushes Crawford down the list a bit. If he develops a bit more power, that forecast will change, but for now he's a solid fantasy prospect who looks like the heir to Jimmy Rollins in a few years.

#5 Roman Quinn (SS)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.238	37	5	21	32
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
298	0.323	0.346	9.1%	21.5%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
20	B/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2015 Season)		A

Once Billy Hamilton becomes a permanent member of the Cincinnati Reds, the title of "fastest player in the minor leagues" might very well fall to Roman Quinn. The Phillies drafted Quinn 66th overall in the 2011 draft and gave him $775,000 to keep him away from a Florida State commitment. Because he signed late, he didn't make his debut until the following season when he led the New York-Penn League in steals and runs scored.

His speed is far and away his best tool, one of the few true 80-grade tools you'll see on any prospect. Quinn regularly gets down the line in the 3.8-4.0 range which means that he has the ability to turn nearly any ball on the ground into a hit. And of course, his speed makes him a threat to steal every time he gets on first. Since high school, Quinn has moved from the outfield to shortstop and he's picked up switch-hitting so it's understandable that he's still considerably raw on both sides of the ball. His swing is different from both sides of the plate, using a shorter line-drove stroke from the right side and a longer, slight uppercut as a lefty. As he gets more repitions the swings should start to look more similar and he could be an average hitter. For his size, Quinn has surprising strength and pop and he actually might develop into a double digit home run hitter in the future, but he's got a lot of work to do to reach his offensive potential.

Defensively he probably won't stick at short in the long-term. He committed 31 errors in 61 games last season, mostly on throws. Plus, the selection of J.P. Crawford will likely push Quinn to second base or even centerfield where his speed will be a big asset. A wrist injury that cut his season short last year took a big chunk of his development time, and a ruptured Achilles could take with it all of his 2014 season unfortunately. Hopefully he will be able to return some time before the end of the season.

#6 Aaron Altherr (OF)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.275	57	12	69	23
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
527	0.337	0.455	8.5%	26.6%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
22	R/R	On 40 Man Roster (3 Options Left)		A+

As you're seeing throughout this list, the Phillies have a propensity for drafting very raw, yet very toolsy players in hopes that they can develop the players into stars. Aaron Altherr fits that description perfectly, and in 2013 we might have seen the athleticism finally materializing into baseball skills. The 6-foot-5, 190 pound outfielder spent all of 2013 in the Florida State League, establishing new career highs in home runs, walks, and slugging percentage while hitting .275.

His swing is still far from picture perfect, as he will collapse on his back side now and again, but it has improved a ton since he first entered the system. While he probably will never contend for batting titles, Altherr has a chance to bat in the .270 range in the big leagues. The power is somewhat the same -- he'll never be a big-time bopper -- but 12-17 round-trippers a year looks doable. Combine that with the speed to swipe 20-25 bases and Altherr looks like a future Alex Rios in the making. Right now he patrols centerfield, though given the plethora of up-the-middle talent in the organization he may have to settle in a corner down the road.

Altherr is exactly the type of high-risk, high-reward player that piques my interest. He's got length in his swing, some recognition problems, and he strikes out far too much for his power profile. Still, athleticism like his doesn't grow on trees and he started to a turn a corner in 2013. This season he'll get a real test against better pitching in Double-A, but don't count him out if it doesn't go swimmingly immediately.

#7 Severino Gonzalez (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
7	0	2.01	1.03	119
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
103.2	0.44	0.63	5.4%	29.3%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
21	R/R	Not On 40 Man Roster (Must Protect After 2015 Season)		A, A+, AA

Gonzalez doesn't necessarily have the big tools of other pitching prospects, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the results as he continues his journey up the organizational ladder. Signed as an 18-year-old, Gonzalez spent his first two professional seasons in the Venezuelan summer league before coming stateside this past season where he reached Reading as a 20-year-old. For his career, Severino has a 1.88 ERA in 239 innings (28 starts) with 234 strikeouts against just 31 walks.

His arsenal includes a low-90's fastball that cuts and sinks, two breaking balls, and a changeup that he uses every now and again. No pitch really stands out as above average, but the overall package plays way up because of outstanding command and his ability to add and subtract velocity as needed. Despite the command, Severino's detractors still point to his slight frame and inability to get lefties out (.380 OBP in 2013) as signs that he belongs in the bullpen long-term, a real concern.

Severino has surprised at every level he's pitched thus far, and he might continue to do so all the way up the ladder. His ceiling is probably that of a mid-rotation starter, but the control and command puts him miles ahead of most 21-year-olds and gives him a real shot if he can add some weight and develop a changeup. If not, he'll make a nice bullpen piece for Philadelphia.

#8 Carlos Tocci (OF)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.209	40	0	26	6
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
459	0.261	0.249	4.8%	16.8%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
18	R/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2015 Season)		A

Although many organizations have given seven-figure bonuses to international free agents over the years, the Phillies have taken a more cautious approach to the market. So when Tocci signed for $759,000 on his 16th birthday, it represented the largest international bonus ever handed out by Philadelphia. Since the signing, the team has been very aggressive with the Venezuelan outfielder. In 2012, they sent him to the GCL, where he was the youngest player on his team by nearly a full year and this past season he played for Lakewood as the second youngest player in the league after Raul Adalberto Mondesi.

His numbers to this point have been, well, rather abysmal. He's hit just .222 with a .274 OBP and virtually no power to speak of. Physically, he's got tons of projection left and he could use a good helping of those famous Philly cheesesteaks to fill out his rail thin frame. Seriously, Tocci is listed at 170, but seeing him in person there's just no way that he weighs that much. He has good pitch recognition and he allegedly barreled a ton of balls this season; they just didn't go anywhere because he lacks present strength. As he fills out and matures, Philadelphia (and others) feels that he'll be an above average hitter with at least fringe average power. Much like J.P. Crawford, though, a lot of Tocci's value will come defensively where he effortlessly glides in the outfield and flashes enough arm strength to profile anywhere.

If you just look at the numbers and write Tocci's fantasy stock off entirely, you're doing it wrong. He's been very young everywhere that he's been and there's still a Coco Crisp-like upside to his game. Without a doubt it's going to take time, but look for some improvements from Tocci this year in Lakewood or Clearwater.

#9 Zach Green (3B)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.252	52	13	41	8
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
311	0.344	0.478	10.0%	29.3%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
19	R/R	Not on 40 Man Roster (Protect After 2016 Season)		A-

In an organization that already has Maikel Franco and Cody Asche, Green's 2013 performance should remind us not to forget about him. The 19-year-old third baseman totaled 34 extra-base hits and a .225 isolated power in the New York-Penn League. That's what he offers -- power. Green already stands a mature 6-foot-3, 210 pounds and his long arms and strength give him 65-grade raw power that he's already started to tap into in games. When he can get extension, Green hits the ball with as much authority as anyone in the system outside of Franco.

Making contact is another story. Green's swing has some length to it and he bars his front arm a bit selling out for power. He also has had problems adjusting to better velocity, which in turn causes him to cheat and struggle with breaking pitches away from him. He struck out 15 times more than any other player in the NYPL last year and he was facing competition that was often younger. That said, he also ranked seventh in the league in walks so there is a bit of a three true outcomes profile going on that means he might have value even if he never cuts down on the strikeouts.

At third he's a solid defender with good athleticism and footwork. He still needs to add polish at the position, but that should come with repitions. The bigger obstacle will be the aforementioned players ahead of him who might cause a move to another position. For now, however, Green will stay at third and make his full season debut in 2014.

Morgan's stock took a big hit after arm troubles cut his 2013 season short, but he's still got the potential to have a nice future in Philadelphia. Drafted in the third round in 2011 out of Alabama, Morgan entered the system as an inconsistent starter with some promise. He pitched well enough that season and in spring training the following year that the Phillies sent him to the Florida Start League to start 2012. There, Morgan really excelled leading the league in strikeouts per nine innings and WHIP before finishing the year with six strong starts in Double-A.

In 2013, Morgan got his first taste of Triple-A, but a partial tear in his shoulder limited his season to just over 70 innings. The first thing he'll have to do next year is prove his health. If he does that, Morgan will be back on the fast track to Philly. He's not ace-material, but the southpaw has two well above average to plus offspeed pitches in his slider and changeup that he pairs with an average fastball. The arsenal reminds some of Cliff Lee, though Morgan is miles behind Lee in the command department. Athletic and durable, Morgan shouldn't have a problem sticking in a rotation as long as he's healthy, a point he'll try to prove back in Lehigh Valley this season.

Other Interesting Prospects
By Andrew Ball (@andrew_ball)

Ethan Martin, RHP - Martin has some of the best raw stuff in the system, predominantly featuring an electric mid-90's heater and a heavy curveball that misses bats. His brief big league stint didn't go great last year (6.08 ERA), but he did manage to whiff more than a batter per inning in his time in Philadelphia. If I thought he was a starter he'd make the list, but more than likely Martin will turn his sights towards a back end spot in the bullpen.

Larry Greene, 1B - 2013 was a forgettable season for Greene. He came into camp out of shape, and he never really got over that, hitting .213 with 165 strikeouts in 111 games. Considering that the entirety of his value is tied to his bat, Greene just has to be better than that. The power potential remains, but he has a long way to repair the damage that was done last year.

Dylan Cozens, OF - Philadelphia's second round pick in 2012, Cozens is an absolutely monster of a man standing 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds. Before signing with the Phillies, he had committed to the University of Arizona as a defensive end, so there should be little surprise that his game revolves around power. There are a lot of baseball skills that need developing in his game, but the ceiling is there for an all-star talent that might shoot up this list next year.

For more on the Phillies, be sure to check out SBNation's The Good Phight . For more on the minor leagues and prospects in general, check out SBNation's Minor League Ball.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Andrew Ball is a contributing writer for Beyond the Box Score and Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @Andrew_Ball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

Matt Mattingly is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @MattMattingly81

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
The Good Phight
Vimeo
Youtube