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I knew I was a day late posting this for a reason. I would have dwelled on keeping Adam Eaton in the top 5. Now I don’t have to although I’m not excited about anyone outside of Paul Goldschmidt, which brings me to Diamondback’s number 1 and Fantasy Baseball’s number 3 overall projection. You can find all my year to year projections over at Rotobanter in positional tier format. All the projections will be updated after the winter meetings.
1) Paul Goldschmidt: I have probably the most optimistic BA for him that I’ve seen for 2014. I have 2 ways of landing on my batting average projections. One is by looking at his individual balls in play type (GB, FB and LD) and looking at his career BABIP and BA on each balls in play type. Then there’s this formula: ((HR+xBABIP*(AB-K-HR+SF))/AB) which outputs an expected batting average based on expected BABIP. My first strategy lands me on .299 and the later outputs .309, which is associated to my projected .332 BABIP/.345 xBABIP. I haven’t updated his Runs Produced counting stats prior to the Adam Eaton-Mark Trumbo swap, but we should still see 90+ R and 110+ RBI along with 35 HR (22.5% HR/FB ratio again). He’ll only be 26 next year and I can see his FB% elevating a bit which would positively effect his HR total so 37+ HR won’t surprise me a bit.
*To understand the approach to all of my projection, feel free to ask away in Rotobanter’s Fantasy Baseball Forum.
2) I have to go Mark Trumbo over Patrick Corbin, Gerardo Parra, Martin Prado and Aaron Hill. The categorical value of HR is too significant and I technically have his overall value (5x5 line) beyond Prado, Parra and Hill as well. Prior to the swap today, I had Trumbo at the following: 590 AB; 71.1% Contact Rate; 39% FB Rate; 20.75% HR/FB rate = 34 HR. If you want his updated projection prior to the re-release after the new year, you can send me a request here. The rest of his line was 79 R and 97 RBI with a .249 BA (and this came from a BABIP higher than most other system have). Chances are we see something closer to .245. I won’t ever target Trumbo, but if these three counting stats fall for me and I’m in need of power, then I don’t have a big issue. If you incorporate OBP, then I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 round pole.
3) I’m going to have Patrick Corbin in my #3 slot. He might be a bit overvalued next year based on his 2013 dominance, but I’m still projecting the following line, which you can find in my current top 75 SP: 13 W - 3.68 ERA – 1.23 WHIP – 177 K. If you’re into the ‘holy trinity of pitching,’ then here are those three rates: 7.6 K/9; 2.4 BB/9 (3.2 K/BB Ratio) and a 1.5 GB/FB ratio…solid rates.
4 through 6 is a bit of a toss up for me really. I have Gerardo Parra, Martin Prado and Aaron Hill ranked in this order based on their projected 5x5 value:
|
5x5
|
Age
|
Name
|
Pos
|
Tm
|
G
|
PA
|
AB
|
Ct%
|
BB/K
|
IFFB%
|
IFH%
|
HR/FB%
|
GB/FB
|
GB%
|
FB%
|
LD%
|
BABIP
|
xBABIP
|
OBP
|
OPS
|
SLG
|
AVG
|
HR
|
SB
|
R
|
RBI
|
|
3
|
26
|
Paul Goldschmidt
|
1b
|
ARZ
|
158
|
698
|
568
|
0.760
|
0.89
|
0.038
|
0.055
|
0.243
|
1.19
|
0.425
|
0.358
|
0.218
|
0.3319
|
0.3456
|
0.4322
|
0.9894
|
0.5572
|
0.2998
|
37
|
14
|
101
|
121
|
|
88
|
27
|
Gerardo Parra
|
of
|
ARZ
|
142
|
497
|
442
|
0.818
|
0.53
|
0.058
|
0.055
|
0.083
|
2.16
|
0.540
|
0.250
|
0.210
|
0.3217
|
0.3373
|
0.3460
|
0.7424
|
0.3963
|
0.2768
|
7
|
10
|
80
|
61
|
|
95
|
30
|
Martin Prado
|
2b
|
ARZ
|
154
|
661
|
605
|
0.910
|
0.87
|
0.090
|
0.050
|
0.075
|
1.66
|
0.490
|
0.295
|
0.215
|
0.2929
|
0.3269
|
0.3358
|
0.7457
|
0.4099
|
0.2836
|
12
|
3
|
72
|
79
|
|
112
|
32
|
Aaron Hill
|
2b
|
ARZ
|
137
|
569
|
511
|
0.844
|
0.63
|
0.145
|
0.072
|
0.099
|
1.03
|
0.400
|
0.390
|
0.210
|
0.2998
|
0.3077
|
0.3457
|
0.8016
|
0.4559
|
0.2775
|
17
|
6
|
70
|
67
|
Hill is where he is based on the G/PA/AB total, and while we finally know what he is more consistently, he’ll already be 32 next year. With enough PA though, if his IFFB% regresses back positively, then the HR/FB ratio could pop his HR total up to 20 once more. Maybe he steals 10 bases again. If these stats align then he would wind up right after Ben Zobrist (#8 overall) and prior to Martin Prado in my 2B positional tiers. I personally draft Hill right before Prado for the HR and SB counting stats. Prados a close 2nd being 2b and 3b eligible because while I have Parra projected ahead of them both, I have the 2+ GB/FB ratio. If you’re expected a BA approaching .280, then we would need some lucky BABIP. I had projected Parra where he is based on potential time atop of the lineup. If so, he should provide 80+ runs, but we’re not sure that’s the case even with the Eaton trade. Rotochamp has AJ Pollock atop of the lineup.
Daniel Schwartz owns Rotobanter.com and projects players year to year. You can customize fantasy baseball posts on Rotobanter.com or by sending him requests via twitter to @Rotobanter.
