The Top 5 Fantasy Blue Jays: The Same New Look…For Now

The top 5 Fantasy Blue Jays: The Same New Look Toronto Blue Jays…For Now

It was supposed to be an exciting 2013 with the acquisitions of Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, John Buck (sent to the Mets) and Emilio Bonifacio (now on the Royals) from the Marlins and R.A. Dickey among others from the Mets.

Instead, they finished in dead last of the AL East behind the bounce-back World Series champions, Wild Card Rays, Crush Davis’ Orioles and naturally the New York Yankees…imagine me saying "Hanging ‘round, Hanging ‘round" like Teddy KGB from Rounders.

Despite losing top notch pitching prospects Justin Nicolino (MIA) and Noah Syndergaard (NYM) in addition to IF Adeiny Hechavarria, top-catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud and supplement P Prospect Anthony DeSclafani among others, they still have 3-6 translatable pitching prospects heading up their farm system.

For a better in-depth fantasy perspective into their farm system as is, check out This Post by the Fake Teams Prospect Staff…all must follows on Twitter:

Jason Hunt (@jasonsbaseball)
Andrew Ball (@andrew_ball)
Brian Creagh (@briancreagh)
Kevin Nielsen (@kevinnielsenmlb)

…Along with Ray @faketeams

While there’s talk that the Blue Jays could/would trade Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes or even Edwin Encarnacion and have interest in Gordon Beckham, here’s a look into their top 5 fantasy assets as is in order:

1. Edwin Encarnacion

2. Jose Reyes

3. Jose Bautista

4. Brett Lawrie

5. Casey Janssen

…Don’t stop here…

Let’s take a look at the 2014 Rotobanter projections for the above and others from the Jays that you should consider:

	G	AB	AVG	HR	SB	R	RBI	Ct%	BB/K	HR/FB%	GB/FB	LD%	BABIP	xBABIP	BABIPdiff
EE	152	559	0.2712	36	8	95	113	0.8424	1.06	0.1725	0.84	0.190	0.2614	0.3050	-0.0435
Reyes	140	569	0.2948	12	27	88	57	0.8978	0.89	0.0720	1.45	0.218	0.3071	0.3246	-0.0175
Bautista	128	478	0.2556	30	7	84	83	0.8107	0.83	0.1780	0.91	0.160	0.2563	0.2710	-0.0147
Lawrie	130	482	0.2735	15	11	58	64	0.8248	0.48	0.1075	1.29	0.183	0.3002	0.3203	-0.0201
	G	AB	AVG	HR	SB	R	RBI	Ct%	BB/K	HR/FB%	GB/FB	LD%	BABIP	xBABIP	BABIPdiff
Rasmus	140	479	0.2469	27	1	66	77	0.7101	0.35	0.1740	0.73	0.204	0.2873	0.3035	-0.0163
Lind	135	440	0.2565	19	0	58	60	0.7786	0.49	0.1650	1.42	0.200	0.2873	0.3204	-0.0331
Melky	101	399	0.2761	6	9	54	43	0.8605	0.50	0.0540	1.54	0.208	0.3065	0.3218	-0.0153

For projections prior to the 2014 Fake Teams projections launch, send me requests on Rotobanter.com. Our full list will be available in January. I can customize the ranking and associated $ values based on your league type and scoring.

My pitching projections are not yet complete, so here is the Rotochamp’s projection for Casey Janssen:

	W	Sv	ERA	WHIP	K
Casey Janssen	3	34	3	1	58

Here are notes for each player. I highlighted the peripherals/ratios and 5x5 stats that are mentioned in the above matrices:

1) Edwin Encarnacion - BABIP only thing keeping him from top 5

a. Eligibility: EE played 10 games at 3b last year. If he’s 3b eligible in your league than I would project him to be the 6^th most valuable asset in 2014. As a 1b, he comes in at #10. That’s not necessarily where I would draft him, but that’s what his output should provide up to $29 if you’re in a 25 man league meaning approximately 176 hitters are drafted

b. Elite BB/K and GB/FB ratios: I’m projecting EE to have the 5^th best BB/K ratio (1.06) and 18^th best GB/FB ratio (0.84) which bodes extremely well for a power hitter. For context, last year he had the 3^rd best BB/K ratio after Aoki and Scutaro and 15^th ‘best’ GB/FB ratio.

c. BABIP: The only thing keeping EE from being top 4 value is his consistently low BABIP. Based on his hit expectancy and BIP data I am projecting a positive regression to .2614 (it was .247 last year) so between this and his BB/K ratio we should see a .271/.272 avg. as a worse-case scenario. The BABIP differential (expected BABIP – actualBABIP) that I highlighted above is the 20^th biggest BABIP differential I’m projecting next year further validating a lower than expected overall BABIP.

2) Jose Reyes - If he stays on the field, he stays in the top 20

a. In a 140+ games, there’s no reason not to expect 10+HR/25SB and 85+R/55+RBI and beyond meaning top 15 value with the 20^th best contact for 2014 (90%) leading to a .295 avg.

b. If he does somehow get traded, I hope it’s back to the Mets ;

3) Jose Bautista - GB% and BB% getting back to pre-breakout levels. Balls in Play breakdown and at-bat total could prevent more than a 25-80-80-5 line

a. Injury Concerns: The contingency here is his AB total. In 2012, he only played in 92 games and last year it totaled 118. The above projection is based on 128 games/478 At-bats, which should ensure 30 HR and 80/80, but…

b. Balls in Play: His infield fly ball percentage (IFFB%) and bad-trending groundball rate (especially if his flyball percentage also continues to drop) could impede on such a HR total, but let’s hope the GB/FB rebounds without affecting his linedrive percentage/BABIP which would cause a avg. closer to .240 like 2012 (.215 BABIP and 13.6% LD rate).*Just keep in mind that his GB% and BB% is back to pre-breakout levels.

4) Brett Lawrie – He’ll meet expectations, but probably not yet this year due to GB/FB ratio

a. GB/FB & Age – At only 24, we could see another big skill jump. The last 2 years, his GB/FB exceeded 1.42. I projected 1.29 next year which is probably too kind. When I watch him, he hits the ball hard, and I think a lot of the groundballs will turn into line drives next year which could elevate his babip yielding an avg. closer to .290.

b. Staying on the field – like Bautista, Lawries AB total might prevent more Runs Produced. I don’t think a line of 20HR/15SB and 65R/75RBI would be out of hand at all. I just can’t draft that assumption yet. I’d still consider Lawrie a 4^th tier 3b at this point:

	Avg	HR	SB	R	RBI
Miguel Cabrera	0.3251	38	2	106	128
Adrian Beltre	0.3021	27	1	83	87
Evan Longoria	0.2737	32	2	80	94
Ryan Zimmerman	0.2792	25	4	83	90
Josh Donaldson	0.2795	23	4	83	91
Kyle Seager	0.2661	24	9	86	76
David Wright	0.2927	17	14	72	70
Pedro Alvarez	0.2460	34	1	67	95
Manny Machado	0.2809	16	6	78	67
Brett Lawrie	0.2737	20	12	64	71
Will Middlebrooks	0.2576	25	5	69	76
Pablo Sandoval	0.2807	16	1	64	82
Nolan Arenado	0.2762	14	2	66	72
Matt Dominguez	0.2544	22	0	59	79
Chase Headley	0.2602	15	7	64	67
Aramis Ramirez	0.2767	16	0	57	66
Alex Rodriguez	0.2523	19	9	60	56
Chris Johnson	0.2837	11	0	53	66

5) Casey Janssen – unless there’s a bad luck chain of games where he blows it, the CL job is safely his

a. Trifecta: The K/BB ratio approaching 4.0; 1.5 GB/FB ratio and expected ERA’s (SIERA/xFIP) that back up his surface ERA all point to continued success

b. BABIP/FB%: Two years running sub .255 BABIP and a HR/FB ratio with a sub 30% FB-rate will help keep the balls in the year and runners stranded.

c. Continued CL Success: He now has more CL success under the belt converting 34 of 36 saves last year dismissing all Delabar/Santos concerns. I don’t love projecting saves, and on the surface it seemed like there was less turnover than usual last year. I’d be comfortable making him my #1 closer (assuming others reach for the elite closers sooner than I’m ready to)

Dan Schwartz (@Rotobanter on twitter) owns Rotobanter.com - dedicated to your fantasy baseball requests and live discussions. He developed Rotobanter MAPPS's (Manual Approach Play Projections), which you can learn about through his 2014 projections, positional tiers and prospect impact pages.

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