2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: Cleveland Indians

The prospect staff here at Fake Teams will be taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2014. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. We will be reviewing two teams per week until we are through all 30 teams, and you can see the schedule of when your favorite team will be reviewed below.

System Schedule

AL East	AL Central	AL West	NL East	NL Central	NL West
Baltimore	Chicago	Houston (11/18)	Atlanta (12/5)	Chicago (12/23)	Arizona (1/9)
Boston	Cleveland (11/4)	Los Angeles (11/21)	Miami (12/9)	Cincinnati (12/26)	Colorado (1/13)
New York	Detroit (11/7)	Oakland (11/25)	New York (12/12)	Milwaukee (12/30)	Los Angeles (1/16)
Tampa Bay	Kansas City (11/11)	Seattle (11/28)	Philadelphia (12/16)	Pittsburgh (1/2)	San Diego (1/20)
Toronto	Minnesota (11/14)	Texas (12/2)	Washington (12/19)	St. Louis (1/6)	San Francisco (1/23)

Organizational Overview
By Andrew Ball(@andrew_ball)

After finishing 2012 with the second-worst record in the American League, Cleveland spent the past offseason changing just about anything and everything they could. First, they made a splash in free-agency, shelling out $104 million to sign two of the best position players on the market in Michael Bourne and Nick Swisher. Then, GM Christ Antonetti used the remaining year on outfielder Shin-Soo Choo's contract to acquire two former first round picks in Trevor Bauer and Drew Stubbs in the mega-three-way deal with the Diamondbacks and the Reds. Finally, the organization added some new leadership, hiring Red Sox' skipper Terry Francona to manage the new-look Tribe.

Interestingly enough, though, those weren't the moves that took Cleveland to the brink of the playoffs in just a year. Sure, Bourn and Swisher were an upgrade over the likes of Casey Kotchman, Shelley Duncan, and Johnny Damon, but neither player lived up to expectations. And the trade actually hurt the team for 2013, with Choo turning in his finest year as a professional while Bauer's season only raised more concerns regarding his future without erasing any of the doubts from his big league debut. Instead, the team was led by strong offensive years from Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Yan Gomes, as well as a remarkable improvement in the starting rotation. Seriously, check out the difference between Indians' starters from 2012 to 2013:

Year	W	IP	ERA	K%	BB%	fWAR
2013	59	924.2	3.92	22.3	8.5	13.5
2012	48	914.2	5.24	15.3	8.7	3.2

What's most impressive about the pitching turnaround is that most of the arms stayed the same. Defacto ace, Justin Masterson dropped his ERA from 4.93 all the way to 3.45 thanks to a nearly 7% increase in his strikeout rate. At the same time, Zach McCallister and Corey Kluber built off of their fine first years, rounding into the quality mid-rotation starters we knew that they could be and Ubaldo Jimenez started to finally look like the dominant pitcher we saw in Colorado, finishing the year with the tenth lowest ERA among American League starters.

Rounding out the rotation were Scott Kazmir and Danny Salazar who came to Cleveland in very different manners. Kazmir was signed in the offseason as a minor league free agent, having spent the 2012 season with the Sugar Land Skeeters of the independent-Atlantic League. The last time he was even remotely relevant to a big league club was in 2009, but somehow the Indians managed to milk 158 innings and a 3.51 FIP out of the former strikeout champ. Salzar, on the other hand, came up through the farm system and he surpassed even the loftiest expectations in his rookie campaign. The southpaw was lights out and he'll be a target for fantasy owners in 2014 after striking out 65 batters in 52 innings with an average fastball velocity of nearly 96 mph.

All in all, 2013 was a massive success for the franchise. They won 92 games and finished just one win behind the Detroit Tigers for the AL Central crown, reminding the fan base that Cleveland still has a team with uniforms and everything. Additionally, the farm system showed signs of improvement. Shortstop Francisco Lindor took a big step forward in 2013, reaching Double-A as a 19-year old and solidifying himself as one of the top prospects in the game, though a large chunk of that value is tied to his glove and relatively useless for fantasy owners. Plus, thanks to their lackluster 2012 season, the Tribe used the fifth overall selection in the draft to take Clint Frazier, one of the most dynamic talents in the whole class. It may not be the deepest system in the big leagues, but Cleveland has a system with some definite impact potential.

2013 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time prior to September 1st of this year.

Danny Salazar (Innings), Cody Allen (Innings), Nick Hagadone (service time)

Major League Opportunities in 2014
By Andrew Ball(@andrew_ball)

For better or worse, the majority of Cleveland's 2013 club will be back next season. Again the lineup will be anchored by Kipnis, Santana, Swisher, and Bourn with expanded roles for Gomes and maybe Lonnie Chisenhal and four of Cleveland's top-six starters will be back as well. The other two, Jimenez and Kazmir, are free agents, though one or possibly both will likely at least be offered qualifying offers. If they both leave, there is a chance that Bauer or Cody Anderson would open the season in the rotation with a strong showing in spring training. In the scenario that Anderson is the one that wins the job, he would at least warrant AL-only attention. The only other core player that may not return is Drew Stubbs, thought I would imagine he'll be retained. Lastly, in an surprising move Cleveland cut ties with former closer Chris Perez and they may elect to give the ninth inning to Cody Allen or Vinnie Pestano. There are other spots (third base, designated hitter) that the Tribe should look to upgrade, but only Jesus Aguilar looks to be an in-house option. So for a second straight year, if the Indians are going to improve offensively they will do so through free agency or in a trade.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
By Brian Creagh(@briancreagh)

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors prior to September 1st.

In a system short on high-upside fantasy talent, Clint Frazier stands out as a future difference maker for Cleveland. Drafted 5th overall out of Loganville High School in Georgia, Frazier generates plus power from his elite bat speed and he will be an impact fantasy contributor from the moment he steps on Progressive Field. At 18 years old, Frazier hit the ground running in the Arizona Rookie League hitting .297/.362/.506 with 5 HRs, 3 SBs in 196 PAs.

Frazier's plus-plus power is on full display every batting practice, but most encouraging is how easily it transfers to in-game power. The hit tool is advanced enough (but still needs improvement as he advances) to let the power play to its full potential, which could be upwards of 30 HRs at peak. Frazier's biggest offensive hurdle at this point, is to fine tune his approach at the plate. His aggressive, pull-heavy tendency can succeed in the lower minors, but as he moves up to the higher levels, he will have to quit expanding the strike zone and trust his excellent bat-to-ball skills by taking some balls the other way. Frazier's spray chart below (courtesy of MLBFarm) highlights, his pull-happy approach as all 5 of his HRs are to left or center field, and almost everything to the right hand side is a flyout. His ability to barrel pitches in any locations are a good indicator of his future ability to hit it to all fields, and I have little doubt that the proper adjustments will be made.

Power will be Frazier's calling card for fantasy value, but he does have some other tools that will help supplement his value. An excellent athlete, Frazier is a good runner and is more than capable of swiping a few bags. Given his physical maturity, it's difficult to project Frazier as a consistent double-digit steals threat but it wouldn't be out of the question to see that type of production early in his career.

Centerfield is new territory for Clint Frazier as he played the left side of the infield during high school, but early reports show he's making good progress and might be able to hold his own long-term. He has the speed/athleticism to hang there, but if he gets moved to a corner he has the arm strength to excel in right field.

Frazier might not have the projectability of other Top-5 draftees, but his tools are still elite and very mature, making him one of the safer bets to reach the majors and be an impact player. He plays the game with a reckless abandon and attacks everything at the plate. In time, he will learn to rein in the aggression and work counts more consistently in his favor. The high strikeout rates will always be a part of his game, but it won't inhibit his ability to produce in the middle of a major league lineup.

Often pigeon-holed as a glove-first, "more valuable in real life" type of prospect, Francisco Lindor deserves far more love in fantasy baseball circles. The power is not eye-popping and will never be an asset, but a shortstop hitting .290, drawing a bunch of walks atop a major league lineup and stealing double digits bases is a starter in every format. Lindor is incredibly advanced for his age, reaching AA in 2013 as a 19 year old. At this point in his development, Lindor is arguably the safest bet in the entire organization to make a positive impact at the major league level.

Use any superlative to describe Lindor's defensive abilities at shortstop and you'll probably still be underselling him. Silky smooth with every action, athleticism to both sides, and the instincts giving him range few can match, Lindor's defensive prowess is second to none in the minor leagues. A lock to play shortstop in Cleveland for the foreseeable future, I feel comfortable with Lindor holding a lot of fantasy value even without the power projection. The SS position is seeing a dearth of power and any player who doesn't kill you in AVG and can tack on some steals, is worth taking a flier on.

Lindor will likely head to AA to start the 2013 season and could end up spending the entire year there. Asdrubal Cabrera is signed through 2014 and should block Lindor's promotion until 2015, barring injury or a poor season, for the Indians. Some evaluators see some power developing for Lindor as his body matures, and 2014 might be the year it finally takes off. If he shows double digit power next year, he has a legitimate case for jumping Clint Frazier, in my opinion.

#3 Dorssys Paulino (SS)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.246	56	5	46	12
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
523	0.297	0.349	5.7%	17.4%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
19	R/R	Not On 40-Man Roster (Protect After 2015)		A

On a similar developmental track as Francisco Lindor, Dorssys Paulino is playing at a level far advanced for his age, and he's more than holding his own. Signed as a 16-year old out of the Dominican Republic in 2011 for a $1.1 million bonus, Paulino's designation as a shortstop appears to be short lived. Not only because the best defensive shortstop is in the same organization, but Paulino's glove has some question marks and his body is likely to outgrow the position. Second base and third base are both possible homes for Paulino, but third base is more likely since Paulino definitely has the arm for the position and the keystone is currently blocked by Jason Kipnis.

Paulino projects to have a plus hit tool and average power, which would play better at 2B, but can be useful at 3B. His 2013 season didn't do much to help his prospect stock as he slashed .246/.297/.349, but considering he was playing full season A ball as an 18 year old, the lumps he took should be beneficial for Paulino's long term development. He did make adjustments as the season went on, hitting .266 with 3 HRs in the final 2 months of the season - not earth shattering, but encouraging improvements. Paulino has already showed the propensity to hit the ball to all fields and he should see more success as he develops a better approach.

2014 should see Paulino move to Hi-A Carolina where he will spend the majority of the season and will continue to play SS. Paulino is always going to be an offense-oriented prospect, making him an excellent fantasy target. The down year in 2013 may have turned some owners off on Paulino, but I'm still very much a believer in his future role as an excellent fantasy middle infielder.

In my first iteration of this list, I left Bauer off the Top 10 so his ranking at the 4 slot is more a result of how our other writers feel about Trevor Bauer. The wheels have fallen off for Bauer since his trade from Arizona to Cleveland and his prospect stock has never been lower, ultimately bottoming out when Cleveland declined to include him in their expanded roster despite Bauer holding on to a 40-man roster spot. It's becoming obvious that what is ailing Bauer is between the ears, therefore the cure is almost anyone's guess.

Bauer threw 17 innings for Cleveland in 2013 and they were somehow even worse than his 16.1 innings for Arizona in 2012. His control has been all over the place and as you can see below (courtesy of Brooks Baseball), there is more red outside the strike zone than in.

The troubling part is following Bauer's demotion, the strikeout numbers reached all-time lows in AAA (7.86 K/9) and the walk rate wandered up to an all-time high (5.41 BB/9). Bauer did not react well to failure on the big stage and that is a difficult flaw to overcome.

The tools are all there for Bauer to still be an excellent pitcher and that is why he finds himself on the top half of this list. Bauer features a fastball, changeup, curveball, slider, and a screwball and can befuddle hitters at the plate with his diverse arsenal. His delivery is quirky and extremely deceptive, which helps all of his stuff play up but it's also a source of contention as he fights himself and micro manages every aspect. The fastball velocity dropped to about 92 mph towards the end of the year, but I'm chalking this up to fatigue as I think Bauer still has the excellent "stuff" to put himself in a rotation.

An intelligent pitcher is always fun to watch, but Bauer takes it to an extreme and treats pitching like advanced calculus. Miguel Montero had a problem with Bauer when he shook off the very first sign in his MLB debut. Montero and Bauer never were on the same page, and Miguel was extremely critical of Bauer after he was shipped to Cleveland. He decided to pitch from the stretch one start against the Chicago White Sox and seems to think he's developed the ultimate stretching/long toss routine that no one can disrupt. I'm not optimistic it'll ever happen, but it would be a lot of fun to watch Bauer just rear back and fire for one night and see what sort of damage he could do.

Bauer's immediate future is unclear since Cleveland's rotation appears to be set with Masterson, Salazar, and McAllister locked in, Carrasco on board plus the possibility of the Indians re-signing a revived Scott Kazmir or Ubaldo Jimenez. Cleveland also might not feel that Bauer is ready for a role in the rotation and could send him back to AAA to work on the command and psychological issues.

#5 Ronny Rodriguez (SS/2B)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.265	62	5	52	12
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
498	0.291	0.376	3.2%	15.3%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
21	R/R	Not On 40-Man Roster (Protect After 2014)		AA

A third Latin American middle infielder, Ronny Rodriguez is another toolsy shortstop with a lesser offensive profile than Lindor and Paulino. Rodriguez is a great athlete with an aggressive approach that is covered up by his excellent contact abilities. There is some pop in Rodriguez's swing, and his drop in HRs from 19 in 2012 to 5 in 2013 doesn't change his double digit HR ceiling. Rodriguez still shows excellent bat speed and when paired with his contact skills the offensive ceiling is substantial.

There is some question on what position Rodriguez settles in at, with 2B and 3B being more probable than staying at SS. His fantasy value shouldn't be tied tightly to his defensive future, since his offensive profile plays from SS and 2B, and is average at 3B. Rodriguez will likely repeat AA next year and should see a lot of time at 2B with Lindor likely headed to Double-A Akron as well. These two could turn into a formidable middle infield combo and will be a lot of fun to watch.

Cleveland's first round draft pick in 2012, Naquin is a polished, college bat that has been moving quickly through the system. There isn't a lot of power in Naquin's bat and there's little chance of him developing some in the future. Naquin has an easy, line drive swing allowing him to make solid contact on a consistent basis. His 20+ steals in college, and 15 steals this year are a bit of a mirage as Naquin isn't a burner and doesn't project for double digit steals in the major leagues.

Naquin's fantasy value is tied directly to his batting average and if he can hit anywhere close to .300, he should be ownable in standard formats. Little speed and less power is not a good start for a fantasy baseball profile, and the possibility of Naquin settling into a fourth outfielder's role is a big concern. He's shown the ability to take a walk (8.2% BB% in Hi-A), but strikes out too much (22.5% K%) for a player bringing very little power to the table.

2013 was spent mostly in Hi-A for Naquin as he hit .277/.345/.424 in 108 games before being promoted to AA for the final 18 games of the season. I expect Naquin to begin 2013 in AA with a very real chance of him sniffing the big leagues at the end of the year. A low ceiling, but high likelihood of reaching the major leagues.

#7 Dylan Baker (RHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
7	0	3.65	1.30	117
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
143.2	0.19	1.37	10.2%	19.2%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
21	R/R	Not On 40-Man Roster (Protect After 2015 Season)		A

A 5th round pick in 2012, Baker is a projectable right-handed pitcher who seemed to figure things out at the end of the season. Baker was drafted out of junior college, due to being under recruited out of his Juneau, Alaska high school. When selected he was viewed as a boom or bust type with a power reliever label already slapped on him.

Baker spent all of 2013 at Single-A Lake County striking out 7.3 batters per 9 innings and walking 3.9. The walk rates don't jump off the page but it is a large improvement from his small sample in 2012 and the whispers of a future in the bullpen appear to be growing faint.

Baker's fastball sits in the mid-90's and he has a great curveball/slider combo that are put away options. His 6'2", 215 lb. frame can definitely handle the workload of a starter, but the question is whether the control will ever come around enough for him to be effective. The changeup is another big variable in Baker's ultimate role and it still needs to make some strides next year for the whispers to dissipate entirely.

#8 Sean Brady (LHP)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
0	0	1.97	0.94	30
SECONDARY STATISTICS
IP	HR/9	GO/AO	BB%	K%
32	0.56	1.17	4.7%	23.6%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
19	L/L	Not On 40-Man Roster (Protect After 2017 Season)		Rk

Another 5th Round draft pick, this time in 2013, Sean Brady is a stark contrast to Dylan Baker. Brady is a lefty who gets by on excellent command of all his pitches. He throws a fastball that ranges from 88-91, a polished changeup that is beyond his years, and a curveball with sharp downward action. Brady always appears in control of his stuff and is extremely polished for a high school arm.

Brady threw 32 innings in rookie ball in 2013 and succeeded right out of the gate. An 8.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 are enticing and a 1.97 ERA and 0.94 WHIP is downright dominating. It's strange to see these numbers from a "pitchability" guy, and the results are extremely encouraging. Brady should see a big challenge when he's promoted to full-season ball, hopefully sometime next season.

Brady's fantasy ceiling is limited because of the projected low strikeout totals, but he could easily develop into a mid-rotation starter for the Indians and there's always value in a guy who takes the ball every 5 days. If the changeup takes another step forward and the curveball is consistently plus, there is still a chance we see his ceiling rise and establish himself as a prospect worth owning in all dynasty leagues.

Aguilar has been in the Indians system since signing in 2007 and his prospect stock has always been held back due to his first base profile. He always had to prove himself at every step and show that the bat can play at 1B. At 23 years old, Aguilar spent all of 2013 at AA Akron and has continued to prove his bat worthy of consideration on prospect lists.

The power is a little light in the HR category, but Aguilar shows plus power in batting practice and has slowly transitioned it into in-game power. At 6'3" 250 lbs there is no speed in Aguilar's game and his defensive abilities are limited, but the frame supplies ample power and he could be an impact bat if given an opportunity in Cleveland.

Odds are Aguilar ends up only being a factor in deep leagues, but the bat is legit and should carry him to a major league debut sometime in 2014.

#10 Tony Wolters (C)
FANTASY STATISTICS (ALL LEVELS)
AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
0.277	36	3	33	3
SECONDARY STATISTICS
PA	OBP%	SLG%	BB%	K%
340	0.369	0.353	12.1%	17.1%
OTHER INFORMATION
AGE ON 1/1/2014	B/T	ROSTER STATUS		LEVELS
21	L/R	Not On 40-Man Roster (Protect After 2014)		A+

Wolters' fantasy value took a huge step forward as he transitioned from shortstop to behind the dish. There was little chance he emerged as a middle infielder considering Lindor, Paulino, and Rodriguez's presence and his path to playing time is a lot clearer at catcher. Wolters has the athleticism and the arm strength to succeed behind the dish, but he hasn't played there since his freshman year of high school so some development time is still very much required.

On offense, Wolters receives praise for his quick bat speed and patient approach at the plate. He had a 58/41 SO/BB ratio in 80 games at Hi-A this year due to his pitch recognition skills and ability to put bat to ball. He has a small 5'10" frame and doesn't generate a ton of power, but he has gap power and the offense shouldn't hinder his chance as a starting catcher.

The transition to catcher throws a wrench into Wolters development curve. I'm guessing he's another 2-3 years away from seeing the big leagues because of how much he has to learn defensively. The upside is that with Carlos Santana seeing a 50/50 split behind the dish already in his career, there should be plenty of room for Wolters and Yan Gomes to play if Wolters' glove develops far enough.

Other Interesting Prospects
By Brian Creagh (@briancreagh)

Kieran Lovegrove - A 3rd Round Pick in 2012, Lovegrove is a big right-handed pitcher born in South Africa. He repeated rookie ball in 2013 and the results weren't fantastic, but he's only 19 years old and has two seasons of professional experience to his credit. Even if it doesn't work out for Lovegrove, he'll still be one of my favorite prospects because of this interview with Cespedes Family Barbecue.

Jose Ramirez - Ramirez ripped up the minor leagues and earned a cup of coffee at the tail end of 2013 at 20 years old. At this point he's a speed-only player with no discernible power or path to playing time. In a different system he might make a Top 10, but not in a Cleveland system loaded with middle infield talent.

Joe Wendle - Yet another middle infield prospect, Joe Wendle is an offensive-minded player with a nice little power/speed combo. His age relative to the competition (23 in Hi-A this past year) is a bit concerning, so his impressive numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. He should face a big test in AA next year and if he passes, could find himself a valuable trade chip for Cleveland at the deadline. I like him as well in most organizations besides Cleveland.

Dace Kime - The Indians' 3rd Round draft pick in this year's draft, Kime is a college arm out of Louisville. Kime was a reliever in college, but the Indians will be trying him as a starter and he has the build and arm to make the transition. There are some control problems that need to be worked on while he stretches out and establishes himself as a starter. Good arm, great name.

For more on the Indians, be sure to check out SBNation's Let's Go Tribe. For more on the minor leagues and prospects in general, check out SBNation's Minor League Ball.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Andrew Ball is a contributing writer for Beyond the Box Score and Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @Andrew_Ball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

Matt Mattingly is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @MattMattingly81

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Reference
Brooks Baseball
Fangraphs
Let's Go Tribe
MLB Farm
Vimeo
Youtube