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Yesterday, I looked at how starting pitchers who keep the ball on the ground at a 45% rate fared over the last three seasons. They fared well. I then took a closer look at these ground ball pitchers to see how a draft strategy of targeting ground ball pitchers who strike out seven batters or more, and walk less than three batters, per nine innings fared over the last three seasons (2011 - 2013). and we saw they performed very well.
Today, I analyze how this strategy worked in 2013, and who you should target in 2014.
In 2013, there were 80 starting pitchers who pitched a minimum of 100 innings, with a ground ball rate of 45% or higher. The average ERA of these 80 starters was 3.71 and a 53% winning percentage (wins/(wins + losses). That is good, but not great. Actually, if you mix several of these starters with 2-4 middle relievers and closers on draft day, your year end ERA would be lower, I imagine. I won't list the 80 starters here, but will list the starters who meet the second requirement: striking out seven batters or more every nine innings.
Here is that list:
|
Name |
W |
L |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
ERA |
|
Anibal Sanchez |
14 |
8 |
182.0 |
10.0 |
2.7 |
45.40% |
2.57 |
|
A.J. Burnett |
10 |
11 |
191.0 |
9.9 |
3.2 |
56.50% |
3.30 |
|
Jose Fernandez |
12 |
6 |
172.2 |
9.8 |
3.0 |
45.10% |
2.19 |
|
Matt Harvey |
9 |
5 |
178.1 |
9.6 |
1.6 |
47.70% |
2.27 |
|
Felix Hernandez |
12 |
10 |
204.1 |
9.5 |
2.0 |
51.40% |
3.04 |
|
Chris Sale |
11 |
14 |
214.1 |
9.5 |
1.9 |
46.60% |
3.07 |
|
Stephen Strasburg |
8 |
9 |
183.0 |
9.4 |
2.8 |
51.50% |
3.00 |
|
Francisco Liriano |
16 |
8 |
161.0 |
9.1 |
3.5 |
50.50% |
3.02 |
|
Justin Masterson |
14 |
10 |
193.0 |
9.1 |
3.5 |
58.00% |
3.45 |
|
Jeff Samardzija |
8 |
13 |
213.2 |
9.0 |
3.3 |
48.20% |
4.34 |
|
Madison Bumgarner |
13 |
9 |
201.1 |
8.9 |
2.8 |
46.80% |
2.77 |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
16 |
9 |
236.0 |
8.9 |
2.0 |
46.00% |
1.83 |
|
Tim Lincecum |
10 |
14 |
197.2 |
8.8 |
3.5 |
45.30% |
4.37 |
|
Tyson Ross |
3 |
8 |
125.0 |
8.6 |
3.2 |
54.90% |
3.17 |
|
Homer Bailey |
11 |
12 |
209.0 |
8.6 |
2.3 |
46.10% |
3.49 |
|
Alex Cobb |
11 |
3 |
143.1 |
8.4 |
2.8 |
55.80% |
2.76 |
|
Corey Kluber |
11 |
5 |
147.1 |
8.3 |
2.0 |
45.50% |
3.85 |
|
Adam Wainwright |
19 |
9 |
241.2 |
8.2 |
1.3 |
49.10% |
2.94 |
|
Mat Latos |
14 |
7 |
210.2 |
8.0 |
2.5 |
45.10% |
3.16 |
|
Clay Buchholz |
12 |
1 |
108.1 |
8.0 |
3.0 |
47.70% |
1.74 |
|
Felix Doubront |
11 |
6 |
162.1 |
7.7 |
3.9 |
45.60% |
4.32 |
|
Patrick Corbin |
14 |
8 |
208.1 |
7.7 |
2.3 |
46.70% |
3.41 |
|
Gerrit Cole |
10 |
7 |
117.1 |
7.7 |
2.2 |
49.10% |
3.22 |
|
John Lackey |
10 |
13 |
189.1 |
7.7 |
1.9 |
46.80% |
3.52 |
|
Hisashi Iwakuma |
14 |
6 |
219.2 |
7.6 |
1.7 |
48.70% |
2.66 |
|
Edinson Volquez |
9 |
12 |
170.1 |
7.5 |
4.1 |
47.60% |
5.71 |
|
Zack Greinke |
15 |
4 |
177.2 |
7.5 |
2.3 |
45.60% |
2.63 |
|
Ivan Nova |
9 |
6 |
139.1 |
7.5 |
2.8 |
53.50% |
3.10 |
|
Jon Lester |
15 |
8 |
213.1 |
7.5 |
2.8 |
45.00% |
3.75 |
|
CC Sabathia |
14 |
13 |
211.0 |
7.5 |
2.8 |
44.70% |
4.78 |
|
David Price |
10 |
8 |
186.2 |
7.3 |
1.3 |
44.90% |
3.33 |
|
Rick Porcello |
13 |
8 |
177.0 |
7.2 |
2.1 |
55.30% |
4.32 |
|
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
14 |
8 |
192.0 |
7.2 |
2.3 |
50.60% |
3.00 |
|
Dallas Keuchel |
6 |
10 |
153.2 |
7.2 |
3.1 |
55.80% |
5.15 |
|
Yovani Gallardo |
12 |
10 |
180.2 |
7.2 |
3.3 |
49.20% |
4.18 |
|
Kris Medlen |
15 |
12 |
197.0 |
7.2 |
2.2 |
45.30% |
3.11 |
|
Chris Archer |
9 |
7 |
128.2 |
7.1 |
2.7 |
46.80% |
3.22 |
This filter resulted in a group of 37 starters, yielding an average ERA of 3.35 and a 58% winning percentage in 2013. That is a terrific ERA.
Next, I added the third requirement: walking three batters or fewer every nine innings:
|
Name |
W |
L |
IP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
GB% |
ERA |
|
Adam Wainwright |
19 |
9 |
241.2 |
8.16 |
1.3 |
49.10% |
2.94 |
|
David Price |
10 |
8 |
186.2 |
7.28 |
1.3 |
44.90% |
3.33 |
|
Matt Harvey |
9 |
5 |
178.1 |
9.64 |
1.56 |
47.70% |
2.27 |
|
Hisashi Iwakuma |
14 |
6 |
219.2 |
7.58 |
1.72 |
48.70% |
2.66 |
|
John Lackey |
10 |
13 |
189.1 |
7.65 |
1.9 |
46.80% |
3.52 |
|
Chris Sale |
11 |
14 |
214.1 |
9.49 |
1.93 |
46.60% |
3.07 |
|
Clayton Kershaw |
16 |
9 |
236 |
8.85 |
1.98 |
46.00% |
1.83 |
|
Corey Kluber |
11 |
5 |
147.1 |
8.31 |
2.02 |
45.50% |
3.85 |
|
Felix Hernandez |
12 |
10 |
204.1 |
9.51 |
2.03 |
51.40% |
3.04 |
|
Rick Porcello |
13 |
8 |
177 |
7.22 |
2.14 |
55.30% |
4.32 |
|
Gerrit Cole |
10 |
7 |
117.1 |
7.67 |
2.15 |
49.10% |
3.22 |
|
Kris Medlen |
15 |
12 |
197 |
7.17 |
2.15 |
45.30% |
3.11 |
|
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
14 |
8 |
192 |
7.22 |
2.3 |
50.60% |
3 |
|
Homer Bailey |
11 |
12 |
209 |
8.57 |
2.33 |
46.10% |
3.49 |
|
Patrick Corbin |
14 |
8 |
208.1 |
7.69 |
2.33 |
46.70% |
3.41 |
|
Zack Greinke |
15 |
4 |
177.2 |
7.5 |
2.33 |
45.60% |
2.63 |
|
Mat Latos |
14 |
7 |
210.2 |
7.99 |
2.48 |
45.10% |
3.16 |
|
Chris Archer |
9 |
7 |
128.2 |
7.06 |
2.66 |
46.80% |
3.22 |
|
Anibal Sanchez |
14 |
8 |
182 |
9.99 |
2.67 |
45.40% |
2.57 |
|
Stephen Strasburg |
8 |
9 |
183 |
9.39 |
2.75 |
51.50% |
3 |
|
Madison Bumgarner |
13 |
9 |
201.1 |
8.9 |
2.77 |
46.80% |
2.77 |
|
CC Sabathia |
14 |
13 |
211 |
7.46 |
2.77 |
44.70% |
4.78 |
|
Alex Cobb |
11 |
3 |
143.1 |
8.41 |
2.83 |
55.80% |
2.76 |
|
Jon Lester |
15 |
8 |
213.1 |
7.47 |
2.83 |
45.00% |
3.75 |
|
Ivan Nova |
9 |
6 |
139.1 |
7.49 |
2.84 |
53.50% |
3.1 |
|
Clay Buchholz |
12 |
1 |
108.1 |
7.98 |
2.99 |
47.70% |
1.74 |
This filter yielded a group of 26 starting pitchers with an average ERA of 3.11 and a .600 winning percentage. Wow.
Who should you target in 2014 fantasy drafts? Well, the list from 2013 is an assortment of aces and mid-late round picks in most mixed league drafts, so this strategy can be used if you everything falls your way. I recommend grabbing an ace starter by the fourth or fifth round in every draft.
Other than the ace starters listed above, here are the mid-late round pitchers I would target:
John Lackey
He looked like the old John Lackey this year, didn't he? His K/9 and ground ball rate jumped and his walk rate dropped in 2013, resulting in his lowest ERA since 2007.
Rick Porcello
Porcello is an elite ground ball pitcher (55.3%), and his strikeouts per nine increased in from 5.46 K/9 to 7.22 K/9 this season, resulting in a drop in his ERA to the low 4s, but his 3.53 FIP and 3.19 xFIP tell us he was a better pitcher than his ERA reflected. He could have a breakout in 2014, and can be had in the later rounds of most drafts.
CC Sabathia
Either Sabathia has lost it, or he just had a very bad 2013 season. We will learn more in spring training and early in 2014. I am betting that he bounces back in 2014.
Gerrit Cole
Is he an ace already? I say he is, but you can get him in the lower half of the first 10-12 rounds in 2014 drafts, as most fantasy owners still see him as very young and want to see how he performs in a full season. That presents opportunity for Fake Teams readers. Take advantage.
Homer Bailey
Bailey is on the cusp of reaching the potential we saw in him as one of the top prospects in the game several seasons ago. His 3.31 FIP ranked 23rd amongst qualified starters this season, and I think he can take that next step to being an ace. I am surprised the Reds are pondering trading him this offseason.
Chris Archer
Archer showed us a glimpse of what we can expect from him in the future in 2013, winning 9 of his 23 starts, with a low 3.22 ERA. He limits the free pass and can take that next step if he can improve the strikeout rate in 2014.
