2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: Chicago White Sox

The prospect staff here at Fake Teams will be taking an in-depth look at each major league organization, including our top 10 fantasy prospects, an overview of the organization's minor league system as a whole and potential opportunities for playing time in 2014. Our goal is to provide you with more information as you prepare for minor league drafts for dynasty and keeper leagues, as well as look at players that could potentially be worth watching during the spring, as they could be in line to potentially help your fantasy team. We will be reviewing two teams per week until we are through all 30 teams, and you can see the schedule of when your favorite team will be reviewed below.

System Schedule

Organizational Overview
By Brian Creagh(@briancreagh)

We are also just over one year removed (10/26/12) from the White Sox officially announcing Rick Hahn as the team's GM, and there is a direct relationship between Hahn's promotion to GM and the club's top to bottom improvement. Kenny Williams consistently mortgaged the farm in order to trade for temporary replacements and was quite successful at doing so; but the entire philosophy required Williams to be perfect in his mid-season trades. It finally caught up to him in 2013 as the White Sox finished with their worst 162-game record since 1970.

The future is brighter with Hahn at the helm and in a short period of time he has revamped the entire organization and is making all the right moves. I also believe the White Sox benefit greatly from the new CBA's draft slot restrictions, because owner Jerry Reinsdorf and the White Sox have consistently refused to pay more than the suggested slot limits. With a hard cap now in place, their greatest disadvantage in acquiring minor league talent has evaporated.

It would've been interesting to see how the White Sox planned to use their #3 overall draft pick next June if there were no spending cap. Would they have passed on an elite prospect because of an inability to go over slot? Luckily for the Pale Hose, this question will never be answered. The Kenny Williams regime had a terrible track record with first round picks, with only Chris Sale and Gordon Beckham going on to have a positive impact for the parent club in recent years. The likes of Jared Mitchell, Keenyn Walker, Aaron Poreda, Kyle McCulloch, Lance Broadway, and Josh Fields are all toiling away with little hope of carving out solid careers.

Hahn's immediate impact has been felt in his investment in international free agents Jose Abreu and Micker Adolfo Zapata. Both of these prospects figure to be key parts of the White Sox future with the latter not making his presence felt for another 4-5 years. The philosophical shift is important, and actually quite interesting since they have chosen to spend money in the one area that is not capped by a dollar amount or requires a posting fee.

Rick Hahn earned another feather in his cap with his selections in the 2013 amatuer draft. I loved the Tim Anderson pick as he raises some eyebrows as a Junior College selection, but his high school career was derailed by a knee injury and a focus on basketball that is now behind Anderson. The Tyler Danish selection might be a bit of a stretch as his delivery is bizarre and screams reliever, but I credit Hahn for taking a risk on an arm that has shown great results as opposed to the previous toolsy selections of Hawkins, Mitchell, and Walker which have yielded little production (the book is still very much incomplete on Hawkins though).

2013 Graduates

The following players have surpassed their rookie maximums of 130 AB, 50 IP, or 45 days of service time prior to September 1st of this year.

Conor Gillaspie (at bats), Jordan Danks (at bats), Avisail Garcia (at bats), Josh Phegley (at bats), Hector Gimenez (service time), Blake Tekotte (service time), Leury Garcia (service time), Bryan Anderson (service time), Donnie Veal (service time), Andre Rienzo (innings), Brian Omogrosso (service time), Deunte Heath (service time)

Major League Opportunities in 2014
By Brian Creagh (@briancreagh)

The recent signing of Jose Abreu gives the White Sox a potential impact bat to come up from the minors and supplement the major league roster. Abreu's designation as a prospect is iffy considering he signed as a free agent weeks ago, but his presence is similar to a home-grown player ready to make a difference at the big league level. I believe Abreu rakes and is in the middle of the South Side lineup very early in the season.

From a fantasy perspective, the bullpen is set as Nate Jones, Matt Lindstrom, and Addison Reed should be the only players worth rostering. There isn't much on the way in terms of elite bullpen arms, but Simon Castro is a name to watch. I see him thriving in high leverage situations and being a staple in the backend of the bullpen.

Top 10 Fantasy Prospects
By Jason Hunt (@jasonsbaseball)

Our top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are based upon standard 5x5 fantasy baseball leagues, with a balancing of ceiling and present value. While we are having discussions regarding these lists as a collective group, the top 10 fantasy prospect rankings are finalized by the writer listed above. Players are no longer considered prospects once they exceed either 130 at bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days of service time in the Majors prior to September 1st.

The White Sox made an early splash in the international free agent market by signing Jose Dariel Abreu to a 6 year, $68 million contract in early October. A Cuban defector, Abreu was not subject to the rules governing international free agent spending because he was over the age of 23 and had played at least three seasons as a professional in Cuba. While his performance in Cuba comes with some massive caveats (namely the concerns about the level of competition there), the numbers still remain eye-popping, as he hit .382/.535/.735 with 13 home runs, 37 walks, and 21 strikeouts over 45 games.

Abreu’s value is entirely related to his bat, as he is a first baseman and it sounds like his defensive will be passable there, but not likely much better. With the White Sox already having Adam Dunn clogging up the designated hitter spot, Abreu will need to play the field most of the time. The bat could potentially be special, as his power is viewed as his carrying tool. He is considered an above-average hitter, but there are questions regarding how he adjusts to the higher velocities in the Majors, and our own Zack Smith mentioned that there are concerns about his toe-tap as well.

The range on Abreu is extremely wide at this point, as there have been reports that think he could be an MVP-level contributor, and others that point him more toward the middle of the pack among first basemen. He seems unlikely to me to play in the minor leagues given the size of his contract and their need at the position with Paul Konerko being a free agent. He’s going to provide power either way, but the question really seems to stem from whether he will hit for a high average as well, or just be an issue in the category. He's an interesting sleeper for the 2014 season, as he will likely go later in drafts due to the depth of the first base position and the quantity of unknowns surrounding him.

Hawkins may very well be the prospect who currently provides the most divergent opinions. Evaulators generally love the tool profile, but there are a lot of questions so far, even leading to this report. A first round draft pick from 2012 out of a Texas high school, the White Sox let him finish up his first pro season at High-A with their playoff-bound affiliate. Overall he hit well that year, finishing with a .284/.324/.480 line with 8 home runs and 11 stolen bases in 59 games between three levels.

The surprise came at the start of this season, when the White Sox sent him back to High-A Winston-Salem for his first full season despite being a high school draftee. To say the performance wasn't what was hoped is probably an understatement, as he hit .178/.249/.384 with 160 strikeouts in just 103 games. Even with that though, we did see some of the tools that made him a first round pick in the first place, as he hit 19 home runs, drove in 62 and successfully stole 10 out of 15 bases.

Hawkins is viewed as a five-tool talent, with his raw power being his carrying tool. He is expected to be a prototypical right field profile, providing above average power and above average speed while also having an outside shot to stay in center field long-term.

The key for Hawkins at this point, and the truly dividing issue, is the utility of his hit tool. There are legitimate concerns about it at this point, as he has shown poor pitch recognition in multiple reports, and it appears that he can very easily be set up by pitchers that may not have a major league projection, let alone top prospects. Whether he can make adjustments to these issues will determine how fast he can continue to move toward the Majors.

The White Sox have their work cut out for them on Hawkins, but the reports on his makeup lead me to believe that it is possible for him to take the struggles this year and turn them into a strength down the line. If everything turns out, we're looking at a possible 20-20 hitter with a solid batting average. If it doesn't, it's entirely possible we never seen him in the majors. I'm more inclined to bet on the tools, and Hawkins may be the best buy-low opportunity for fantasy owners among prospects.

Anderson was the White Sox' top draft pick in this year's draft out of a Mississippi junior college, going 17th overall and signing for a bonus just north of $2 million. The team sent him to their Low-A full season affiliate, where he stole 24 bases in 28 attempts across 68 games, while hitting a relatively empty .277. He played shortstop exclusively this year, but there are concerns regarding his ability to stay at the position due to his throwing arm. If he moves, he would likely end up in the outfield given his excellent speed.

Anderson profiles as a high speed prospect who could provide a little bit of power to go with a potentially solid batting average. He is extremely athletic, and has shown flashes of above-average tools in general, but remains extremely raw. I could see a .275/7 HR/40 SB type season if it all comes together in the majors, but we're still a few years from that possibility. If everything works out, we could see Anderson in Chicago around 2016, but for now he seems likely to start the year at High-A Winston-Salem. If that happens, we may not know whether the team is ready to move him to the outfield with Courtney Hawkins likely to return there for 2014.

A second round pick out of the University of California at Berkeley in 2011, Johnson was viewed as a bit of a project out of the draft. He missed the first two months of the season in 2012 due to shoulder fatigue, but pitched extremely well between Low and High-A that year. Despite having thrown just 94 innings as a professional to that point, the White Sox moved him up to AA to start the 2013 season. He ended up making 24 starts in the minor leagues between AA and AAA this year before a September callup landed him 5 more with the big club, and overall the performance was very good.

The reports on Johnson point to a back-end of the rotation starting pitcher for the White Sox, with the slight possibility that he could be a bit more. He features a fastball which sits in the low-to-mid 90s, a slider in the high 80s, as well as a curveball and a changeup that remains a work in progress. Both his fastball and slider are considered plus offerings, and the curveball gives him a third offering that grades out as average or better.

Johnson will likely be given an opportunity to make the rotation out of Spring Training, and if he does I think he can be a nice starting pitching option in most leagues given his propensity to get ground balls and induce weak contact. For shallower leagues he would likely start out as a streaming option, and could be a nice value in deeper leagues.

A teammate of our last prospect at Cal, Semien signed with the White Sox after being taken in the 6th round of the 2011 draft. His first full season assignment led people to take notice, as he hit .273 with 14 home runs and 11 stolen bases at High-A while playing primarily shortstop. He solidified his status across AA and AAA this year, hitting .284/.401/.479 with 19 home runs, 24 stolen bases, and 98 walks against 90 strikeouts in 137 games, and earned a September call up as well.

While he has shown double digit home run power across multiple seasons, there are concerns that his power surge will not translate to the Majors. If it doesn't, fantasy owners are looking at a player who could potentially hit for a decent average, with a little bit of power and a little bit of speed. His approach leads me to believe that he will see some success, and he seems likely to have more value for fantasy owners in leagues where on-base percentage comes into play.

As of now, it is hard to see how the White Sox get him consistent playing time, given his defensive liabilities. Semien has played primarily shortstop as he has moved up in the system, but it doesn't sound like he will be more than a token shortstop on defense. More likely, a move to second base would fit for him, but with Gordon Beckham continuing to hold down the position, he seems destined to either return to AAA Charlotte, or possibly fill a utility role for the team in the upcoming season.

A college second baseman drafted out of Indiana in 2012, Micah Johnson emerged this year on the strength of a minor-league leading 84 stolen bases. He fell to the 9th round that year in part due to a broken elbow that forced him out of the lineup for much of his draft year, but the White Sox took a shot and gave him an overslot bonus to get him into the system.

He tore up the Sally League, stealing 61 bases in just 77 games while hitting .342/.422/.530, and earned a promotion to High-A following the All-Star break. He didn't run as much in Winston-Salem, stealing 22 bases in 49 games, and with a more pedestrian .275/.309/.360 slash line.

A second base prospect, Johnson's carrying tool is clearly his speed, but it is considered unrefined enough that it doesn't play as well as it could in-game. He was successful in 76% of stolen base attempts, but it sounds like he should have a higher rate once he gets a better idea about reading pitchers' moves. He isn't likely to provide more than token power production in the majors, profiling more as a leadoff type or bottom of the order if he can't get on base enough.

It will really come down to whether he hits enough to allow the speed to play into value for fantasy owners. Don't let the fact that he stole more bases this year than Billy Hamilton trip you up, as it doesn't sound like Johnson will be able to keep that kind of production up as he moves forward. If he does hit, Johnson could potentially steal 40-50 bases a year, but the odds of that aren't great just yet.

There are also questions about whether Johnson can handle second base, and if he can't, would likely end up in the outfield to help utilize that speed. In all likelihood, his value for both the Whit Sox and fantasy owners lies with his bat, and how much of an average he can provide with that speed. He reached AA at the end of the season this year, and I would expect him to start there in 2014.

Thompson played the entire 2013 season at AA, filling up the fantasy statistics with 15 home runs, 25 stolen bases, 78 runs scored and 73 runs batted in over 135 games played. The batting average this year wasn't what you would like to see from him (.229), and it is more likely that he settles in somewhere in the .250-.260 range as he continues to move up.

The batting average suffers in part due to his high strikeout totals, although he did show improvement in that particular facet of his game this year. The totals still remain high (139 in 135 games), but if he can continue to provide counting stats in bunches he will have fantasy value when he arrives in the Majors, regardless of the batting average.

Thompson is known for his prodigious raw power, but this is also limited by the same contact issues as his batting average. He seems very likely to get a shot to play in the Majors at some point in 2014, and given his excellent defensive profile, could stick even if his bat doesn't reach its' full potential.

Zapata is the first player out of this year's July 2 class to make one of our top 10 lists, and honestly it seems like this has more to do with the remainder of the system than being a huge compliment for Zapata. The White Sox gave a $1.6 million bonus to the kid from the US Virgin Islands, who had moved to the Dominican Republic in order to avoid being subject to the amateur draft.

The few reports out there on Zapata point to a player with a five tool profile, with his power tool leading the way. It is always a bit dicey when trying to project J2 signees for fantasy purposes, but the consensus on Zapata points toward a top 10 prospect in this year's international class. We aren't likely to see Zapata in Chicago until after 2017 at the soonest, and at this point in time he remains what most J2 signees are: a lottery ticket.

Poor performances in both the Cape Cod League and his junior season at Louisville led Adam Engel to fall to the 19th round this year, where the White Sox scooped him up for a clean $100K bonus. He went out to the Pioneer League and hit .301/.379/.414 with 31 stolen bases in 56 games.

Engel's defense in center field will be most likely to carry him to the Major Leagues, but that's not to say that his bat won't provide some value as well. He fits into a leadoff type profile, using his above-average speed to help get on base while providing stolen bases and a decent batting average. He seems likely to be a prospect with more value to the White Sox than fantasy owners, but he's worth watching to see if everything clicks as he continues toward Chicago. We should get a better idea of what he can be in 2014, as he seems likely to be headed to full-season Low-A Kannapolis.

Beck was drafted by the White Sox in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft, and made his full season debut with High-A Winston-Salem this year. The numbers from Beck tell a unique story, as he struck out just over 4 batters per 9 innings there, and walked nearly 3 per 9 innings while getting a ton of grounders (1.54 GO/AO). The overall numbers were still good, but the low strikeout rate jumps off the page as concerning.

The dream on Beck looks like a mid-rotation profile, with three potentially average or better offerings (fastball, slider, changeup). There are serious questions about whether the changeup will get there at this point, and if it doesn't he could end up as a reliever long-term. His delivery is smooth and appears to be very easy and repeatable. Physically, he profiles well for a rotation spot, and will likely start the season at AA in 2014. I think that I would have him higher on this list in 2014 if he can ramp up his strikeouts somewhat, because if he doesn't he looks like a better prospect for the White Sox than for fantasy owners.

Other Interesting Prospects
By Jason Hunt (@jasonsbaseball)

Keon Barnum - A supplemental first round pick in 2012, Barnum has been hampered by a string of injuries in his first season-plus as a professional. So far he has appeared in just 69 games between rookie ball and Low-A, but has already shown some of the power that made him a top pick in the first place, as he has eight home runs and 14 doubles so far. The questions surrounding Barnum stem from his inability to stay healthy, as well as how he profiles on the diamond. A first base prospect, Barnum's bat will need to be excellent in order to provide fantasy owners with value. Look for him to return to Low-A in 2014, with a midseason promotion a possibility.

Tyler Danish - The White Sox' second round draft pick this year, Danish has shown the possibility of having three different offerings (fastball, slider, changeup) which could grade out as average or better if everything clicks. There are questions about his size with regard to handling a starter's workload, and it sounds like there is work to be done to help his ability to repeat his delivery consistently. He is extremely raw, but Danish could be a player who moves a long way up these rankings in 2014 if he has solid production and reports in his first full season as a pro.

Keenyn Walker - Walker stole 38 bases this season at AA as a 22 year old, but overall it was a down year in terms of production. He hit just .201/.339/.277 with 3 home runs, but the speed has always been where his value lies. He draws walks at an excellent rate (12.5% this year), but has struck out at least 27% of the time in each of the last two seasons. 2014 will be a crucial season for Walker, as he will need to be protected on the 40-man roster after the year.

For more on the White Sox, be sure to check out SBNation's South Side Sox. For more on the minor leagues and prospects in general, check out SBNation's Minor League Ball.

About the Authors

Jason Hunt is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in the minor leagues and prospects.
Follow him on Twitter @jasonsbaseball

Andrew Ball is a contributing writer for Beyond the Box Score and Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @Andrew_Ball

Brian Creagh is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @BrianCreagh

Matt Mattingly is a contributing writer for Fake Teams, specializing in fantasy baseball and the minor leagues.
Follow him on Twitter @MattMattingly81

Sources

Baseball America
Baseball Prospectus
Baseball Reference
Fangraphs
South Side Sox
Vimeo
Youtube