Yesterday I took a look at the second half starting pitcher leaders for some of the standard 5 x 5 pitching categories, wins, ERA, K/9 and WHIP, to see if there were any pitchers capable of breaking out in 2014. We found a few.
Today, I take a look at some advanced pitching stats, courtesy of FanGraphs, to see if we can discover some more possible 2014 breakouts. I will take a closer look at the second half leaders in FIP, swinging strike percentage (SwStr%), first pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%) and ground ball percentage (GB%).
FIP Leaders
I wrote about Indians starter Ubaldo Jimenez yesterday, as he had an unbelievable second half, as he was one of the leaders in ERA and K/9. Well, it appears his ERA was for real, as his second half FIP (2.17), or Fielding Independent Pitching, was not far off his second half ERA (1.82). That indicates there was very little luck involved in his low 1.82 ERA.
What is FIP? Here is the definition according to FanGraphs:
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Back in the early 2000s, research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers do not correlate well across seasons. In other words, pitchers have little control over balls in play. McCracken outlined a better way to assess a pitcher’s talent level by looking at results a pitcher can control: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and homeruns.
Another Indians starter Scott Kazmir had a terrific 2013 season, considering he hadn't pitched in the big leagues since 2010. Yes, 2010. He had a even better second half, putting up a 2.42 FIP, whicjh was almost a run lower than his second half ERA. Kazmir is a free agent this offseason, and you have to think he will get at least a 2 year deal from some team.
By the way, what's with these Indian starters pitching so well in the second half, anyway?
A couple other names to consider next season are Ricky Nolasco and Henderson Alvarez, as both put up an FIP in the low threes. Nolasco is a free agent this offseason, but Alvarez will be firmly entrenched in the Marlins rotation for the next several years.
Name |
W |
L |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
WAR |
Ubaldo Jimenez |
6 |
5 |
41.30% |
1.82 |
2.17 |
2.99 |
3.00 |
Clayton Kershaw |
8 |
3 |
48.10% |
1.59 |
2.20 |
2.53 |
2.70 |
A.J. Burnett |
6 |
5 |
58.10% |
3.56 |
2.32 |
2.70 |
2.50 |
Scott Kazmir |
5 |
5 |
39.50% |
3.38 |
2.42 |
2.79 |
2.10 |
Anibal Sanchez |
7 |
2 |
49.40% |
2.20 |
2.50 |
3.12 |
3.00 |
Cliff Lee |
4 |
5 |
45.70% |
2.89 |
2.60 |
2.36 |
2.10 |
Cole Hamels |
4 |
3 |
44.40% |
2.97 |
2.65 |
3.21 |
2.40 |
Tyson Ross |
3 |
4 |
57.30% |
2.93 |
2.66 |
2.90 |
1.70 |
Madison Bumgarner |
3 |
4 |
51.50% |
2.36 |
2.72 |
3.32 |
1.80 |
Gerrit Cole |
6 |
4 |
48.70% |
2.85 |
2.72 |
2.80 |
1.70 |
David Price |
7 |
3 |
42.50% |
2.87 |
2.72 |
3.22 |
2.90 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
7 |
5 |
52.40% |
2.87 |
2.73 |
2.95 |
1.60 |
Jon Lester |
7 |
2 |
40.90% |
2.57 |
2.77 |
3.79 |
2.70 |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
6 |
2 |
52.50% |
2.14 |
2.82 |
3.30 |
2.40 |
Max Scherzer |
8 |
2 |
29.80% |
2.44 |
2.85 |
3.65 |
2.50 |
Kris Medlen |
9 |
3 |
48.50% |
2.38 |
2.86 |
2.90 |
1.80 |
Zack Greinke |
7 |
2 |
48.00% |
1.85 |
2.88 |
3.14 |
1.90 |
Andrew Cashner |
5 |
4 |
50.50% |
2.14 |
2.92 |
3.26 |
1.50 |
Stephen Strasburg |
3 |
2 |
52.50% |
3.01 |
2.95 |
2.71 |
1.60 |
Adam Wainwright |
7 |
4 |
51.00% |
3.69 |
3.07 |
2.93 |
1.70 |
Ricky Nolasco |
7 |
2 |
44.60% |
3.60 |
3.07 |
3.43 |
1.30 |
Doug Fister |
7 |
4 |
53.50% |
3.18 |
3.14 |
3.47 |
2.00 |
Gio Gonzalez |
4 |
5 |
39.40% |
3.86 |
3.20 |
3.40 |
1.50 |
Henderson Alvarez |
5 |
5 |
57.60% |
3.39 |
3.24 |
3.99 |
1.50 |
Francisco Liriano |
7 |
5 |
49.60% |
3.95 |
3.25 |
3.28 |
1.30 |
SwStr% Leaders
Swinging strike percentage is the percentage of strikes a pitcher throws that result in a swing and miss. Any SwStr% over 8.5% is considered above average. In the second half of the season, I was shocked to see Padres starter Tyson Ross at the top of the leaderboard. Not known to be a big strikeout pitcher, Ross struck out more than a batter per inning in the second half and now we know part of the reason for the jump in his K/9. He is someone to target late in 2014 fantasy drafts.
There are plenty of aces atop this leaderboard, which is not a surprise. But, there is that Scott Kazmir again. I figure if he can sign with a National League team, preferably in a pitchers park, he should have plenty of value next year as well.
Name |
SwStr% |
Tyson Ross |
13.60% |
Kris Medlen |
13.30% |
Anibal Sanchez |
12.40% |
Francisco Liriano |
12.00% |
Cole Hamels |
11.90% |
Scott Kazmir |
11.80% |
Yu Darvish |
11.70% |
Clayton Kershaw |
11.50% |
Max Scherzer |
11.50% |
Justin Verlander |
11.30% |
Stephen Strasburg |
11.30% |
Zack Greinke |
11.20% |
Patrick Corbin |
11.00% |
Ricky Nolasco |
10.90% |
Madison Bumgarner |
10.90% |
James Shields |
10.90% |
A.J. Burnett |
10.80% |
Julio Teheran |
10.80% |
Dan Straily |
10.70% |
Ervin Santana |
10.70% |
F-Strike% Leaders
F-Strike% is the percentage of times a pitcher throws a strike with the first pitch he throws to each batter that he faces.
Just look at the chart below and you will see why Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game. He may have struggled a bit in game six of the NLCS, but when you throw first pitch strikes to almost 71% of the batters you face, you are putting that batter in an 0-1 hole in the count.
As you can see, several of the best starters in baseball are successful because they throw first pitch strikes. Getting ahead of the hitter is pretty important. If you take a look at the Baseball-Reference splits page for each pitcher, you will see how they fare when they get ahead of hitters.
Pirates starter Gerrit Cole, Rangers starter Martin Perez, and Padres starter Andrew Cashner performed very well in the second half, and part of the reason is because they were able to get ahead of the opposing hitters.
Namee |
F-Strike% |
Clayton Kershaw |
70.70% |
Jordan Zimmermann |
70.60% |
Patrick Corbin |
70.50% |
Dan Haren |
68.80% |
David Price |
67.50% |
Brandon McCarthy |
66.90% |
Max Scherzer |
66.80% |
Travis Wood |
66.70% |
Justin Verlander |
66.60% |
Cliff Lee |
66.50% |
A.J. Burnett |
66.30% |
Gerrit Cole |
65.70% |
Andrew Cashner |
65.70% |
R.A. Dickey |
65.40% |
Bronson Arroyo |
65.40% |
Jose Quintana |
65.30% |
Ervin Santana |
65.20% |
Mike Minor |
65.00% |
Martin Perez |
64.70% |
Matt Garza |
64.60% |
GB% Leaders
If you can draft a pitcher who strikes out anywhere from seven to nine batters per nine innings, who can limit the free pass to under three walks per nine innings (preferably lower), and keep the ball on the ground at a 50% rate or higher, then more than likely, you have a very good pitcher on your roster.
Here is a look at the starting pitchers who kept the ball on the ground at a 50% clip or better in the second half of the season. If you take a close look at the table below, you will see almost every pitcher listed had an ERA in the mid-low threes except for three starters.
Once again, we see Tyson Ross and Henderson Alvarez on this list. Write their names down. They will come cheap on draft day.
Name |
Team |
W |
L |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
xFIP |
WAR |
Charlie Morton |
6 |
2 |
63.90% |
3.28 |
3.29 |
3.53 |
1.30 |
|
Garrett Richards |
5 |
4 |
59.40% |
3.59 |
3.56 |
3.51 |
1.20 |
|
A.J. Burnett |
Pirates |
6 |
5 |
58.10% |
3.56 |
2.32 |
2.70 |
2.50 |
Henderson Alvarez |
5 |
5 |
57.60% |
3.39 |
3.24 |
3.99 |
1.50 |
|
Tyson Ross |
3 |
4 |
57.30% |
2.93 |
2.66 |
2.90 |
1.70 |
|
Ivan Nova |
5 |
4 |
54.70% |
2.78 |
3.76 |
3.99 |
1.40 |
|
Brandon McCarthy |
3 |
7 |
53.60% |
4.08 |
3.76 |
3.68 |
0.8 |
|
Doug Fister |
7 |
4 |
53.50% |
3.18 |
3.14 |
3.47 |
2.00 |
|
Joe Saunders |
3 |
8 |
52.80% |
6.98 |
5.3 |
4.28 |
-0.2 |
|
Rick Porcello |
Tigers |
7 |
2 |
52.60% |
3.71 |
3.55 |
3.40 |
1.50 |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
Mariners |
6 |
2 |
52.50% |
2.14 |
2.82 |
3.30 |
2.40 |
Stephen Strasburg |
3 |
2 |
52.50% |
3.01 |
2.95 |
2.71 |
1.60 |
|
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
7 |
5 |
52.40% |
2.87 |
2.73 |
2.95 |
1.60 |
|
Joe Kelly |
9 |
2 |
52.20% |
1.91 |
3.71 |
4.41 |
0.70 |
|
Wade Miley |
Diamondbacks |
4 |
3 |
51.80% |
2.93 |
3.41 |
3.70 |
1.50 |
Madison Bumgarner |
3 |
4 |
51.50% |
2.36 |
2.72 |
3.32 |
1.80 |
|
Adam Wainwright |
Cardinals |
7 |
4 |
51.00% |
3.69 |
3.07 |
2.93 |
1.70 |
Andrew Cashner |
Padres |
5 |
4 |
50.50% |
2.14 |
2.92 |
3.26 |
1.50 |
Edwin Jackson |
2 |
8 |
50.00% |
4.8 |
3.9 |
4.07 |
0.8 |
I hope i was able to uncover some sleepers with this exercise over the last few days. There are definitely some pitchers listed above that I will target next spring, and you should too. At the very least, I shared with you some of the pitching stats that I look at when evaluating starting pitchers.
More from Fake Teams:
- Who were the Top 20 Starting Pitchers in the Second Half?
- MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees interested in Shin-Soo Choo
- 2014 Minor League Keeper Thoughts: Tampa Bay Rays
- Fantasy Football: Week 8 Start Sit, Rankings, Waiver Wire and More
- 2013 Fantasy Review: Billy Butler
- 2013 World Series Predictions: Winners, MVPs and more
- Aroldis Chapman: Starting Pitcher?
- The Top 5 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Prospects