Deep Auction League Strategy: Hitting versus Pitching

Every owner usually has a unique approach to their own drafts when it comes to drafting hitting versus pitching. Some will overweight in pitching, others overweight in hitting, and most will have a balanced approach. Shown below are some factors to consider when you plan your own strategy.

Player performance is more variable for pitchers than hitters. Anyone who owned Justin Verlander in 2008 or Tim Lincecum last year knows one year you'll have one of the best pitchers in the league and the next they have an awful season from a fantasy perspective. Listed below are the top 12 hitters and starting pitchers going into the 2012 season, their draft values, and their final rounded values in a typical AL-only or NL-only 5x5 league last year:

Although the deviation of prices between pitchers and hitters does not seem to be a major difference (38% versus 29/30%), these values are based on 5x5 league values. If I had used a 4x4 league example, the pitcher values would have been more amplified than in the example, both on the high side and the low. That said, in the chart above five of the six players listed with a final value of less than $10 are pitchers, and typically pitchers have a higher percentage of players who will have negative value versus hitters. Generally, hitters with negative values are those who do not get at-bats and have a batting average below .200. Pitchers who have negative dollar values are not necessarily those who don't pitch but play full seasons e.g. Ubaldo Jimenez or Ricky Romero last year.

Adding to the variability of pitching valuations is the high turnover in the closer position. Going back only two years ago, only 13 closers heading into the 2011 season are still expected to be closers heading into this year: John Axford, Jonathan Broxton, Frank Francisco, Joel Hanrahan, Craig Kimbrel, Carlos Marmol, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Chris Perez, J.J. Putz, Mariano Rivera, Fernando Rodney, and Huston Street.

So this leads to a previous point I've made, which is...

Success in hitting categories is more correlated to playing time (i.e. at-bats) than the pitching categories (i.e. innings pitched). This has a few implications during your auction. One is that if you are in a league where you have a utility position that can be either a hitter or a pitcher, it is optimal to have a hitter in that spot. Another is let's say your league has gone through a significant portion of the auction and you think you've gotten an adequate amount of good pitching, but still have an ample amount of money left with both hitting and pitching spots still open. When you're deciding on how you should focus the remainder of your money on hitting versus pitching, you should probably focus it on hitting to ensure you get the at-bats you'll need.

All else being equal if you are behind in the standings during the season in either hitting or pitching, it is easier to come from behind in the pitching categories than the hitting categories because rate stats (versus counting stats) are less influenced by playing time. Given how most deep fantasy leagues are set up, the free agent pool for hitters is usually bare - if there is a full time starter playing, he's probably on someone's team. But in terms of pitchers, usually there is an available starting pitcher and/or good relievers in the free agent pool that could help your pitching staff.

Hitting wins leagues more often than pitching. This may be a small sample size or unique to the leagues I've played in, but in the 25 league-seasons where I was able to collect data, 16 of those seasons the team that won the league scored more points in the hitting categories than in the pitching categories.

Given that pitching results are more of an unknown quantity versus hitting, this does not mean that you should always overweight on your budget towards hitting. After all, if all of the owners in your league focused more on hitting then this will drive the price of hitters up. Personally, I prefer a balanced approach that tries to make sure I have a full lineup - with no holes - and have a robust enough pitching staff.

Next up: Drafting Catchers and Replacement Value