Taking A Closer Look at First Base for 2013: Goldschmidt, Hart and Davis

Coming into the 2012 season, first base looked so deep. Weren’t quick enough to snag Albert Pujols or Joey Votto? No problem. Missed out on Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder? No biggie.

As the season winds down, those who failed to land one of the big boys probably regret selecting Eric Hosmer or Michael Cuddyer as their everyday first baseman. Similarly, those who secured Adrian Gonzalez or Mark Teixeira early are probably experiencing the same feelings of regret, as neither player has lived up to expectations.

On Monday, Ray gave you an early look at his rankings for first base in 2013. Looking through the list, what stood out to me was the uncertainty of the position. What looked like a safe position in 2012 doesn’t quite look the same heading into 2013.

Will Votto and Ryan Howard bounce back from injury? Will Teixeira continue his downward slide? Will Fielder hit for more power in his second year in Detroit? Did Edwin Encarnacion finally turn the corner?

With so many questions surrounding first base in 2013 – and the loss of Cabrera’s first base eligibility in Detroit – the question of who will be your first baseman next season is an important one.

If you decide to wait on drafting a first baseman in 2013, here are three players I believe are in for career years, after the jump:

Ray ranked Goldschmidt 10th on his list, and I’m glad he did. Not only is Goldschmidt capable of providing elite power numbers, but the 245-pounder old can provide a boost in steals too. Among first baseman, only three players have more than 8 steals and Goldschmidt’s 16 steals ranks as best of the bunch. As Ray pointed out, a power-hitting first baseman capable of producing double-digit steals is an extremely valuable commodity, and Goldschmidt’s power will only get better in 2013.

After hitting 30 home runs at Triple-A in 2011, Goldschmidt has hit 18 long ones in 516 plate appearances this season. While that ranks just 15th among first baseman, the signs for more power are definitely there. Goldschmidt is currently hitting .287/.360/.497 with a respectable .210 ISO. Most of his power came after hitting only 4 home runs through May, but Goldschmidt’s ISO jumped from .221 in May to a ridiculous .390 in June before returning to .223 in July.

While a .390 ISO is unstainable, it shows the immense power potential Goldschmidt possesses. After Votto, Goldschmidt is your best bet at first base in the NL. In three full minor league seasons, Goldschmidt has hit more than 30 home runs twice, and I expect more of the same at the big league level, starting in 2013.

Corey Hart, Brewers

Hart checked in at No. 17 on Ray’s rankings, but I think Hart’s .278/.340/.514 line in 2012 deserves a little more love. Among first baseman, Hart’s 3.4 WAR ranks fourth best in baseball. Only Prince Fielder (4.0), Edwin Encarnacion (3.9) and Albert Pujols (3.5) are better. And here’s how Hart stacks up among first baseman in the standard five-by-five roto categories.

batting average: .278 (t-8th)