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When it comes to drafting kickers, I live by three simple rules:
#1 NEVER draft a kicker before the last round
#2 NEVER draft two kickers, and
#3 NEVER draft a kicker before the last round!
I mean REALLY, people....I'm doing Mock Drafts with you every day and I just can NOT watch you draft kickers in the 9th, 10th or 11th rounds, any more. Why? Just stop it. Take a sleeper Running Back instead...Ronnie Hillman, Ryan Williams, David Wilson...someone. My rant not convincing you? Then, let's look at the numbers.
In 2011, the #1 kicker (David Akers - SF) had a VVR (Value Versus Replacement) score of 2.81 points/week. Meaning, if you had HIM on your team versus the #11 guy then Akers would've netted you an average of 2+ extra points per game. Now, SOME of you are saying "Hey Philip, 2.81 points a week is a LOT, I lost 3 games last year by 2.81 points or less!" Ok, maybe it is and maybe you did, but did you draft Akers in 2011? Nope, his 2011 ADP suggests that no one did. Probably because every NFL fan outside of the Bay Area thought that the 9ers were going to STINK on offense, last year.
But, MAYBE you're REALLY good at picking the best kickers? Well, let's look at that data. In 2010, the top five kickers drafted (by ADP) were Nate Kaeding, Garrett Hartley, Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Longwell (great kicker name, by the way) and Mason Crosby. And in 2011, the top five kickers drafted were Nate Kaeding, Neil Rackers, Stephen Gostkowski, Mason Crosby and Sebastian Janikowski. Ok, not bad, right?? Well, only TWO of those Top TEN selections actually FINISHED in the Top Five as they were drafted. So, for you guys that were sleeping through math class, that's 20%. Would you get on a plane with 20% assurance of success? Ahhh, Nope.
So, what's the point? Do we do away with kickers? Well, some leagues have done that. But, none of mine have, so let's look at getting our hands on the best guys that we can. NOTE: I'm only listing sixteen kickers, because....see Rule #2 above:
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Rank
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Name
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Notes
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1
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David Akers
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Mr. Akers has been Mr. Consistent with 139 or more points each the last three years. He’ll be the first kicker off of the board.
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2
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Stephen Gostkowski
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Anyone kicking for Tom Brady’s Pats can be my kicker any day. He will finish as a Top Five guy, write that down.
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3
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Sebastian Janikowski
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No one has more 50+ yard field goals over the last three years than "Sea Bass". So, if your league has a bonus for that, he’s your guy.
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4
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Mason Crosby
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Only one year in the last five has Mason had less than 125 points. And he is the man for one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.
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5
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Dan Bailey
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This second year kicker set the Fantasy world on fire in 2011, and with dome home games and a hot offense…2012 will be the same.
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6
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Alex Henery
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No rookie in the history of the NFL made a higher % of his kicks… 88.9%. His Vick-driven offense should be humming again in 2012.
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7
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Garrett Hartley
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John Kasay is gone now, as the 2011-injured Hartley takes his role back in 2012. Bounty-Gate should not be affecting the Saints kicking game.
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8
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Matt Prater
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Prater only attempted 25 field goals in 2011 (thanks Tim), but Prater’s attempts should sky rocket with #18 under center. Add that to Denver’s Rare Air, he’ll be quite a sleeper.
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9
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Matt Bryant
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High flying offense + 10 indoor games makes Bryant a solid starter.
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10
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Robbie Gould
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Gould has had 105 or more points since 2009 and the Bears’ off-season additions on offense should drive scoring in the Windy City.
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11
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Jason Hanson
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Yes, he IS 42 years old, but old reliable has many indoor games and Stafford and Megatron moving the ball into field goal range.
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12
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Neil Rackers
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After years in Houston, Neil has moved to your Nation’s Capital. I’m betting that he wins the job and should be a solid starter for you.
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13
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Nate Kaeding
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After tearing his ACL on the opening kickoff of 2011 (Buzz Kill-alert), Nate is healthy and back kicking for a Rivers-led offense.
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14
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Randy Bullock
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The NCAA’s 2011 Lou Groza Award Winner was a 5th round pick for the Texans. He could be Fantasy Sleeper in 2012.
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15
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Rob Bironas
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Bironas is ultra reliable and the Titan offense (with or without Kenny Britt) will be a strong one. And remember Rob has 7 FG’s in one game a few years back……monster.
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16
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Mike Nugent
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Nugent came off of a bad knee tear in 2010 to have a great year in 2011 and this young offense is only getting better.
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Keep your eye out for kickers on potent offenses, kickers with indoor home games and kickers with late bye-weeks. And, if you take a kicker before the last round of your draft....I will laugh at you!!