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This week feels like a case of the haves and the have-nots, as some teams roll their rotations over to the top and others get caught with the back end of their rotation making two starts this week. Ownership percentages are all over the place as well, and bargain plays abound. Meanwhile, I gave out my first (and hopefully last) 0 rating.
There wasn't a lot of news as far as rotation shuffling goes. The Twins were set to work a 4-man rotation, then reneged. The Yankees continue to talk a big game about skipping Freddy Garcia, but an official announcement has not been forthcoming. Other teams have flip-flopped starters for various reasons. By luck of the draw, all of the pitchers affected pitch during the middle of this coming week.
Ratings (0 is the lowest possible score; 5 is the highest) are based on my own subjective opinion on a given pitcher's talent level and recent form, with considerations made for ballpark and opposing offense. I've included comments for all 42 pitchers this week. These are drive-by comments and many of them are based on small sample size, but I've tried to be as informative as possible. I'm happy to discuss any pitcher on a deeper level in the comments or on Twitter. Additionally, I've provided all of this information in a Google Spreadsheet, mostly so that interested parties can sort based on ownership percentage. In the near future, statistics will be included on this document as well. If you decide to utilize this resource, don't forget to make sure that you're viewing the correct week.
Follow the jump for this week's two start pitchers.
As always, projected starters are subject to change.
|Pitcher||This Week's Schedule||Own%||Rating||Comment|
|Cole Hamels||T (@ATL), Su (@WAS)||99||4.5||K/BB is an even 10, and is well supported. Doing everything right so far.|
|C.J. Wilson||M (MIN), Sa (TOR)||98||4.5||GB/FB is 2.05, but his HR/FB is up from last year. 2 home games should help.|
|Matt Cain||T (MIA), Su (MIL)||98||4.5||Should take advantage of facing two poor offenses in his home park.|
|Jered Weaver||T (MIN), Su (TOR)||99||4.5||SwStr% is down. Could a negative regression to his K numbers be coming?|
|Felix Hernandez||M (@TB), Sa (MIN)||99||4||Concerns remain about a dip in velocity, but not so much you should bench him.|
|Mike Minor||M (PIT), Sa (@COL)||58||4||Mike Minor is Considerably Underowned (I agree)|
|Trevor Cahill||T (@WAS), Su (@NYM)||57||4||His SwStr% (9.9) supports a higher K/9 than 5.92, and NYM K more than anybody.|
|Adam Wainwright||T (PIT), Su (@HOU)||93||4||Chalk the slow start up to rust and luck, and start him with confidence.|
|Brandon Beachy||T (PHI), Su (@COL)||92||4||ERA isn't going to stay at 1.05 forever, but ride the hot hand while you can.|
|Jordan Zimmermann||T (ARI), Su (PHI)||91||4||F-Strike% a ridiculous 74. Even with FIP regression, he's a solid play.|
|Mark Buehrle||M (ARI), Sa (@SD)||49||4||Pitcher-friendly ballparks (we think) on the schedule, and WHIP (1.06) is a plus|
|Ricky Nolasco||T (@SF), Su (@SD)||35||4||Key to his success has been the off-speed offerings and an increased GB% (57.1)|
|Chris Sale||T (CLE), Su (@DET)||67||3.5||Cleveland lead the majors in walks by a lot (101 vs. 2nd place 86)|
|Vance Worley||M (CHC), Sa (@WAS)||69||3.5||Which will give first: the LOB% (98.5) or the HR/FB% (26.7)? Bet on the former.|
|Bronson Arroyo||T (CHC), Su (@PIT)||7||3.5||Matchups should be excellent for the rate stats. WHIP so far: 1.09|
|Yu Darvish||M (@TOR), Su (@CLE)||97||3||@TOR is a tough gig, and Darvish has been lucky so far. Tread lightly.|
|Hiroki Kuroda||M (BAL), Sa (@KC)||72||3||Hitting hasn't been the problem in KC. 1.46 WHIP gives pause as well.|
|R.A. Dickey||M (@HOU), Su (ARI)||25||3||We should probably all stop underrating Dickey, but how long will that K rate last?|
|Jeremy Hellickson||M (SEA), Sa (OAK)||84||2.5||Seattle and Oakland at home are tempting. OTOH, ERA-xFIP= -2.15|
|Matt Moore||T (SEA), Su (OAK)||93||2.5||Neither team draws walks, so he should be able to get that 5.04 BB/9 down.|
|Jeff Samardzija||T (@CIN), Su (LAD)||22||2.5||A pretty good bargain if you need Ks and can afford a hit to the WHIP.|
|Tom Milone||M (@BOS), Su (@TB)||21||2.5||He's an above average option, as long as you don't care about strikeouts.|
|Joe Wieland||M (MIL), Su (MIA)||0||2.5||Great matchups for the prospect. Ownership% should be higher next time around.|
|Charlie Morton||T (@STL), Su (CIN)||1||2.5||Added a cutter, and as a result his GB% is 71.4. Even in a SSS, that's impressive.|
|Clay Buchholz||M (OAK), Su (BAL)||50||2||Needs to start missing bats (5.6 SwStr%). Facing 2 woeful offenses could help.|
|Chris Volstad||M (@PHI), Sa (LAD)||1||2||ERA-xFIP= 2.49. Improvement is coming.|
|Duane Below||M (KC), Su (CWS)||2||2||6.75 K/9 in a relief role, so it should go down, but a 12.3 SwStr%, so it should go up.|
|Luke Hochevar||T (@DET), Su (NYY)||9||2||Consistently just above average from year to year, this one is no different (so far)|
|Nick Blackburn||M (@LAA), Su (@SEA)||1||2||In theory, LAA's offense should be better, but in practice, Nick is a decent option|
|Patrick Corbin||M (@MIA), Sa (@NYM)||0||2||Don't like to start pitchers making their debut, but the matchups aren't bad.|
|Ubaldo Jimenez||T (@CWS), Su (TEX)||82||1.5||Velocity continues to dip, and so do the Ks.|
|Bud Norris||M (NYM), Su (STL)||46||1.5||He added a two-seamer, but it isn't working. wFT/C= -6.19. NYM&STL are 4&5 in OBP|
|Aaron Harang||M (@COL), Su (@CHC)||13||1.5||Ks are nice, but WHIP is 1.63, and he has a 13 HR/FB%, which won't play well in COL|
|Randy Wolf||M (@SD), Su (@SF)||5||1.5||7.17 ERA, 5.26 xFIP. Spacious ballparks will help, but how much?|
|James McDonald||M (@ATL), Sa (CIN)||2||1.5||F-Strike% is 43.2, but he's gotten away with it so far. Not for much longer, I'd bet.|
|Hector Noesi||T (@TB), Su (MIN)||1||1||The numbers shouldn't be this bad, but still not fantasy relevant.|
|Jhoulys Chacin||M (LAD), Su (ATL)||43||1||Has already given up 4 gopher balls and faces 2 decent offenses at Coors.|
|Jonathan Sanchez||M (@DET), Sa (NYY)||11||1||F-Strike%: 46.1; BB/9: 8.85. No thanks, especially with these matchups.|
|Kyle Drabek||M (TEX), Sa (@LAA)||29||1||BB rate is too high (4.88) & he's been very lucky (.226 BABIP, 94.5 LOB%). TEX & LAA?|
|Phil Hughes||T (BAL), Su (@KC)||11||1||Stay away from Hughes in Yankee Stadium until he proves he can handle it.|
|Drew Hutchison||T (TEX), Su (@LAA)||0||0.5||He's not major-league ready, and these are major league lineups.|
|Brian Matusz||M (@NYY), Su (@BOS)||1||0||As little upside as one could possibly imagine.|