Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports broke the story that the Warriors have agreed to send Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown to Milwaukee in exchange for Stephen Jackson and Andrew Bogut. Let's break this bad boy down:
Here are some stats of interest to help gauge value:
Milwaukee has about the same possessions per game as Golden State (which I found surprising).
Milwaukee is ranked 25th in field goal percentage; Golden State is ranked sixth.
Milwaukee is ranked 13th in PPG; Golden State is ranked 9th.
Milwaukee is ranked 12th in 3PA/game; Golden State is ranked 7th.
Monta Ellis is playing 37 MPG this year (second-most by a guard to only Kobe Bryant).
Schedules after this week (obvious edge to Golden State here):
Milwaukee: 4-4-4-4-3-3
Golden State: 5-4-4-4-5-2
There isn't a huge amount of fantasy impact shifting around here, but lets take a look at which players have may have seen a value shift:
Winners
Stephen Jackson- Jackson is the obvious winner in this deal. He went from not even playing to possibly taking over as the starting shooting guard. Jackson hasn't played in 10 games due to a "hamstring injury" and has clearly been on the outs with his former head coach. It's up to Mark Jackson on how he'll handle the minutes though. Stephen Jackson is under contract for next season, so the Warriors aren't likely going to be treating him as a player that was just there to make the numbers work ($10 million next year). In other words, I don't think he'll be bought out. I wouldn't quite call him a must-add guy, but the upside with Stephen Curry perpetually banged up makes him a very intriguing guy that should be responsible for quite a bit of the ballhandling.
Klay Thompson- Thompson has probably already been scooped up in deeper leagues since he's scored in double figures for four games in a row while hitting 2.5 3PM per contest. The Washington State product hasn't even been playing significant minutes with 22 MPG over that span. It wouldn't be farfetched to think that Klay's improved play may have fueled this move and with his three-point upside, he's the most intriguing player from this fallout. Thompson isn't a must-own guy as well, but if there is a player on your roster you've been wanting to cut for an upside guy, this is your chance since there is a lot to like here from a fantasy perspective.
Dorell Wright and Brandon Rush- One of the main reasons why these two have been such a headache for fantasy owners was the overwhelming amount of competition. Wright, a breakout player last year, was in one of the most advantageous positions in 2010-11 of any wing player with a monopoly on minutes at the three. This year he had Rush and Klay Thompson breathing down his neck to get minutes all year. Now that Monta is gone, Thompson and Rush can get more minutes at the two which should alleviate some of the pressure on Wright. The 37 MPG void left by Ellis will likely be filled by S-Jax, but it's unlikely that he'll be able to play 27 MPG (his current 2012 average) on a regular basis. Wright's value doesn't ascend to new heights or anything, but if you were on the fence to grab him before, maybe this puts him over the top. Rush is not someone I'd grab unless it's a deep league and his lack of upside doesn't help either.
Dominic McGuire- The other DMC had the starting gig for a bit while Steph Curry was out and McGuire could be in line for more minutes at the four. He doesn't really have much upside though since he doesn't have much of an offensive game and isn't an adept shot blocker. He should have no problem getting 27 MPG or so for now though.
Andris Biedrins- Did I really just call Biedrins a winner? That's a first. I'd leave him on the wire under most circumstance since he has been a disaster all year long.
Jeremy Tyler- You'll be seeing a lot of #FreeJeremy on my timeline, folks. He is very raw and is athletic enough to get have an impact for minutes. He'll need a lot to work in his favor, but the opportunity is there.
Losers
Ekpe Udoh- It's tough to call Udoh a loser, but given the way he has stepped up his game and put to bed the Biedrins battle, we kinda have to. The Baylor Bear was finally getting very consistent minutes in GSW with over 21 MPG in his last five. Those minutes allowed him to hit 10 PPG (on 49 FG% and 88FT%, 5.0 RPG and 2.0 BPG in that span. There's really no chance he'll get those minutes in Milwaukee, so obviously his numbers will suffer. Udoh, who doesn't really project as a center in Skiles' scheme, will now battle Drew Gooden for minutes at the five. Gooden has been playing well and playing a very heavy dose of minutes in the process (35 MPG in March). Since the Bucks traded to get Udoh and he was playing well, there's certainly a chance he can make an impact. Conversely, could the Warriors have been playing Udoh lately to showcase him? Maybe. Either way, Udoh has looked like a desirable player for NBA teams lately (yes, he's not better than Greg Monroe). All that said, the fact of the matter is though that he will probably take a little while to get acclimated to his new team. I wouldn't cut him unless I need to win now or there is a hot free agent out there.
Monta Ellis- Ellis is a loser for this one no matter how you slice it since he was the best fantasy guard on a lot of teams and his schedule takes a huge dip. Besides that, he also takes a backseat as now the clear SG to Brandon Jennings manning the full-time PG duties. Not to mention Brandon Jennings has yet to miss a game this season and has shown some sense of durability. There really isn't a positive way Ellis owners can spin his value. I wouldn't exactly panic on him or anything, but if I did a draft yesterday, he would have been in the top 20 while I'd probably knock him down to 35 after this deal.
Brandon Jennings- While sometimes it's not a stretch to say that adding a scorer can help a point guard's value, that's not the case here. Monta is the kind of guard that can create his own shot and only 39 percent of his field goals come off assists this season. These two guys are likely going to duke it out for shots and having the ball in their hands quite a bit. Although, Jennings was coming off a disastrous month with regards to FG% by converting on only 33 percent of his shots in February. Ellis should be able to help open things up for Jennings a little bit more.
Every other Buck- Drew Gooden and Ersan Ilyasova are going to share the the frontcourt minutes with Udoh. These two fellows have been revelations this year and there is really nowhere to go but down here. Obviously, cutting either of these players is not an option for at least a few games. If for some reason the Bucks do play Udoh significant minutes, it will likely come from Gooden's end.
Mike Dunleavy was playing well for the Bucks and it's probably time to let him lose with this news. On top of the 37 MPG, Moped Monta takes 19.0 shots per game this year and it's more than just a conjecture to say Dunleavy now will do most of his work with the second unit. Mike Jr. was playing 36 MPG in his last five and that number should take a colossal hit.
Beno Udrih had a big game his last time out. That was fun.
Carlos Delfino should also see his numbers trend downward on the whole. Although, he could be useful as a trigger man since he does lead the team in 3PA this year.
The law of conservation of matter states that matter can not be created nor destroyed. Well, that kind of applies to fantasy sports since chances are while a player or team loses value, that lost value emerges in another spot to some degree. The bottom line here is that most of the value shifted from Milwaukee to Golden State. Monta Ellis moving certainly matters.
Thanks for reading!