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1. Miguel Cabrera, DET
2. Adrian Gonzalez, BOS
3. Albert Pujols, LAA
4. Prince Fielder, DET
5. Joey Votto, CIN
6. Mark Teixeira, NYY
7. Eric Hosmer, KC
8. Paul Konerko, CHW
9. Michael Morse, WAS
10. Carlos Santana, CLE
The rest of my rankings with a some notes about a few of them after the jump:
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11. Mike Napoli, TEX
12. Lance Berkman, STL
13. Mark Reynolds, BAL
14. Freddie Freeman, ATL
15. Michael Young, TEX
16. Adam Lind, TOR
17. Ike Davis, NYM
18. Ryan Howard, PHI
19. Gaby Sanchez, MIA
20. Carlos Lee, HOU
21. Justin Smoak, SEA
22. Michael Cuddyer, COL
23. Lucas Duda, NYM
24. Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
25. Yonder Alonso, SD
26. Edwin Encarnacion, TOR
27. Carlos Pena, TB
28. Adam Laroche, WAS
29. James Loney, LAD
30. Todd Helton, COL
31. Mark Trumbo, LAA
32. Adam Dunn, CHW
33. Mitch Moreland, TEX
34. Bryan LaHair, CHC
35. Garret Jones, PIT
36. Mat Gamel, MIL
37. Brandon Belt, SFG
38. Aubrey Huff, SFG
39. Casey McGehee, PIT
40. Kendrys Morales, LAA
41. Casey Kotchman, TB
42. Daniel Murphy, NYM
43. Anthony Rizzo, CHC
44. Mike Carp, SEA
45. Ty Wigginton, PHI
46. John Mayberry, PHI
47. Justin Morneau, MIN
48. Chris Parmalee, MIN
49. Brett Wallace, HOU
50. Juan Rivera, LAD
I still like Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez over Albert Pujols, even with the move to the AL West. I have a hard time looking past Pujols drop in power over the last few years and wonder if it is the beginning of a downtrend in his power. Maybe he gets more days off in LA where Scioscia can DH him once a week come midseason to keep him fresh. But, I will wait and see if that happens this year. Pujols could feel added pressure, ala Carl Crawford, with the huge contract hanging over his head. Plus, he is moving to a new league where he has not seen many of the pitchers.
I like Prince Fielder and Eric Hosmer a little more than Marc Normandin did in his Tiered Rankings on Monday. This year may not be the year Eric Hosmer breaks out, but I think he can improve upon his 2011 showing. He has 25-30 home run power and can steal double digit bags, with a solid BA to with all that. He very well could move up these rankings come 2013.
Fielder has a good year/bad year trend going and he is due for a bad year after his excellent 2011 season, but I think he can maintain his performance in 2012. He reduced his strikeout rate from 19% to 15% last year, and almost doubled his intentional walks from 17 to 32. He will be hitting in a tougher home park, but his power translates in any ballpark, as 22 of his 38 HRs last season travelled over 400 feet.
Another guy who could move up these rankings, and you can get pretty late in drafts is Seattle first baseman Justin Smoak. Smoak dealt with some personal issues due to the death of his father and a hand injury that sapped his power, so he could be the sleeper amongst first baseman in 2012.
One guy who some think had a fluke year in 2011 is Nationals first baseman Michael Morse. I am not so sure I agree with that thought. Morse had some solid monthly splits. With the exception of September, where he probably tired, and April where he barely played, Morse never hit below .299, and had only one month where he hit less than 6 home runs. Will he repeat in 2012? I think so, and I would be a buyer on draft day.
Lucas Duda is another sleeper pick for me, as I can see him hitting 20+ home runs and driving in 85-90 runs for the Mets. He will probably play right field, but has first base eligibility in 2012. He should be able to take advantage of the Mets decision to move the fences in this offseason, and I could see him approach 25 home run in 2012.
I am probably lower on Goldschmidt than most, and he could make my ranking look bad here, but I want to see how he handles a full time role for a team expected to contend in 2012 before moving him up my rankings. He has 30 HR potential, but could also strike out 170 times as well. He struck out 53 times in his 156 at bats last season, so assuming he gets 500 at bats, he will strike out about 150 times this season.
Kendrys Morales and Justin Morneau should be much higher in these rankings, but the news on their recoveries to date has not been very positive. If they arrive in spring training healthy and can play a full game a few days in a row, I will move them up. Otherwise, they will stay where they are due to their injury risk. Both are late round flyers in mixed and AL-only leagues, and those of you in AL-only keeper leagues should be buying them cheap if they are available on draft day.
I ranked Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard at 18 as I think he could miss two months of the season and still come back and hit 20-25 home runs and drive in 75-85 runs.
Both Brandon Belt and Anthony Rizzo should rank higher on this list come 2013 as they will be full time first baseman for the Giants and Cubs. Both probably will see considerable time this season, but both struggled in their cups of coffee in 2011, so I was conservative with their rankings here.
Finally, 2012 may be the last season we see James Loney as a starting first baseman, unless he can show that his power surge in the last two months of 2011 were no fluke. Can he hit for more power in 2012? Sure. Will he? We will know more by the end of March and anything can happen.
So what do Fake Teamers think of my updated First Base Rankings?