We come to the second to last installment of the early ADP trends over at Mock Draft Central. We take a gander at the Starting Pitchers. So many theories have been bandied about, how this system works and people who don't draft starters till after round so and so. Well it's all well and good in theory, until you start drafting your team. Best advice I can drop on ya is don't chase wins, period. Wins are a wonky stat. So enjoy the pretty little chart and have a nice slice of my analysis afterwards.
| Player | Pos | Team | ADP | Earliest | Latest | Draft % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (8) | Justin Verlander | SP | DET | 9.18 | 2 | 28 | 100.0% |
| 2 (15) | Roy Halladay | SP | PHI | 15.28 | 5 | 27 | 100.0% |
| 3 (16) | Clayton Kershaw | SP | LA | 15.95 | 4 | 28 | 100.0% |
| 4 (21) | Cliff Lee | SP | PHI | 20.64 | 11 | 38 | 100.0% |
| 5 (24) | Tim Lincecum | SP | SF | 24.71 | 15 | 44 | 100.0% |
| 6 (27) | Felix Hernandez | SP | SEA | 27.25 | 19 | 47 | 100.0% |
| 7 (29) | CC Sabathia | SP | NYY | 31.04 | 19 | 61 | 100.0% |
| 8 (32) | Cole Hamels | SP | PHI | 31.94 | 20 | 58 | 100.0% |
| 9 (34) | Jered Weaver | SP | ANA | 33.69 | 18 | 56 | 100.0% |
| 10 (37) | David Price | SP | TB | 39.10 | 25 | 66 | 100.0% |
| 11 (42) | Dan Haren | SP | ANA | 43.37 | 30 | 73 | 100.0% |
| 12 (48) | Zack Greinke | SP | MIL | 50.15 | 33 | 73 | 100.0% |
| 13 (50) | Yovani Gallardo | SP | MIL | 51.29 | 34 | 87 | 100.0% |
| 14 (51) | Jon Lester | SP | BOS | 52.22 | 32 | 79 | 100.0% |
| 15 (61) | Matt Cain | SP | SF | 61.13 | 39 | 85 | 100.0% |
| 16 (63) | Stephen Strasburg | SP | WAS | 62.46 | 35 | 90 | 100.0% |
| 17 (65) | James Shields | SP | TB | 67.74 | 44 | 104 | 100.0% |
| 18 (69) | Ian Kennedy | SP | ARI | 70.09 | 36 | 98 | 100.0% |
| 19 (72) | Mat Latos | SP | CIN | 72.14 | 46 | 126 | 100.0% |
| 20 (75) | Madison Bumgarner | SP | SF | 75.68 | 53 | 110 | 100.0% |
| 21 (84) | C.J. Wilson | SP | ANA | 86.57 | 43 | 119 | 100.0% |
| 22 (85) | Dan Hudson | SP | ARI | 86.57 | 63 | 127 | 100.0% |
| 23 (87) | Ricky Romero | SP | TOR | 86.99 | 61 | 128 | 100.0% |
| 24 (91) | Josh Beckett | SP | BOS | 92.79 | 64 | 151 | 100.0% |
| 25 (92) | Tommy Hanson | SP | ATL | 93.89 | 64 | 136 | 100.0% |
| 26 (95) | Michael Pineda | SP | NYY | 97.07 | 62 | 128 | 100.0% |
| 27 (96) | Josh Johnson | SP | MIA | 97.90 | 50 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 28 (100) | Matt Moore | SP | TB | 101.46 | 49 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 29 (104) | Gio Gonzalez | SP | WAS | 103.85 | 64 | 133 | 100.0% |
| 30 (105) | Adam Wainwright | SP | STL | 103.96 | 59 | 304 | 100.0% |
| 31 (111) | Matt Garza | SP | CHC | 110.67 | 64 | 152 | 100.0% |
| 32 (113) | Johnny Cueto | SP | CIN | 115.94 | 93 | 186 | 100.0% |
| 33 (114) | Brandon Beachy | SP | ATL | 116.11 | 84 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 34 (115) | Yu Darvish | SP | TEX | 118.36 | 57 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 35 (117) | Jordan Zimmermann | SP | WAS | 120.38 | 86 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 36 (125) | Chris Carpenter | SP | STL | 125.14 | 85 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 37 (127) | Jeremy Hellickson | SP | TB | 128.89 | 85 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 38 (129) | Anibal Sanchez | SP | MIA | 129.68 | 90 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 39 (135) | Cory Luebke | SP | SD | 138.06 | 94 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 40 (136) | Tim Hudson | SP | ATL | 138.14 | 104 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 41 (142) | Shaun Marcum | SP | MIL | 147.18 | 104 | -ND- | 99.9% |
| 42 (146) | Max Scherzer | SP | DET | 149.90 | 95 | -ND- | 99.6% |
| 43 (149) | Ervin Santana | SP | ANA | 150.92 | 102 | -ND- | 99.5% |
| 44 (154) | Ubaldo Jimenez | SP | CLE | 155.34 | 109 | -ND- | 99.6% |
| 45 (165) | Derek Holland | SP | TEX | 169.54 | 114 | -ND- | 99.6% |
| 46 (167) | Hiroki Kuroda | SP | NYY | 170.72 | 120 | -ND- | 99.0% |
| 47 (174) | Wandy Rodriguez | SP | HOU | 174.79 | 132 | -ND- | 98.8% |
| 48 (179) | Trevor Cahill | SP | ARI | 177.96 | 124 | -ND- | 98.7% |
| 49 (180) | Jaime Garcia | SP | STL | 178.69 | 122 | -ND- | 98.1% |
| 50 (182) | Brandon Morrow | SP | TOR | 181.72 | 111 | -ND- | 96.2% |
| 51 (184) | Doug Fister | SP | DET | 184.21 | 80 | -ND- | 96.8% |
| 52 (192) | Jhoulys Chacin | SP | COL | 192.74 | 137 | -ND- | 95.6% |
| 53 (193) | John Danks | SP | CHW | 193.09 | 145 | -ND- | 95.7% |
| 54 (200) | Justin Masterson | SP | CLE | 199.99 | 147 | -ND- | 94.3% |
| 55 (201) | Brandon McCarthy | SP | OAK | 204.58 | 139 | -ND- | 93.8% |
| 56 (202) | Colby Lewis | SP | TEX | 204.78 | 160 | -ND- | 92.3% |
| 57 (205) | Clay Buchholz | SP | BOS | 208.15 | 122 | -ND- | 89.9% |
| 58 (208) | Alexi Ogando | SP | TEX | 210.27 | 160 | -ND- | 91.5% |
| 59 (212) | Jair Jurrjens | SP | ATL | 211.36 | 139 | -ND- | 90.7% |
| 60 (215) | Scott Baker | SP | MIN | 213.69 | 156 | -ND- | 87.4% |
| 61 (216) | Ryan Vogelsong | SP | SF | 214.26 | 139 | -ND- | 86.4% |
| 62 (222) | Javier Vazquez | SP | FA | 216.60 | 139 | -ND- | 87.0% |
| 63 (225) | Phil Hughes | SP | NYY | 217.58 | 217 | -ND- | 7.9% |
| 64 (226) | Julio Teheran | SP | ATL | 218.54 | 210 | -ND- | 10.2% |
| 65 (227) | Shelby Miller | SP | STL | 219.35 | 211 | -ND- | 11.5% |
| 66 (232) | Jake Peavy | SP | CHW | 220.22 | 203 | -ND- | 12.1% |
| 67 (234) | Dillon Gee | SP | NYM | 221.28 | 214 | -ND- | 0.2% |
| 68 (237) | Jonathon Niese | SP | NYM | 221.95 | 215 | -ND- | 13.9% |
| 69 (238) | Edinson Volquez | SP | SD | 222.00 | 201 | -ND- | 15.2% |
| 70 (240) | Tim Stauffer | SP | SD | 222.16 | 212 | -ND- | 15.1% |
| 71 (248) | Jonathan Sanchez | SP | KC | 225.02 | 205 | -ND- | 20.0% |
| 72 (252) | Erik Bedard | SP | PIT | 225.53 | 209 | -ND- | 21.3% |
| 73 (255) | Roy Oswalt | SP | FA | 226.03 | 121 | -ND- | 81.4% |
| 74 (258) | Ricky Nolasco | SP | MIA | 226.73 | 192 | -ND- | 24.0% |
| 75 (260) | Carlos Zambrano | SP | MIA | 227.34 | 215 | -ND- | 19.5% |
| 76 (264) | Vance Worley | SP | PHI | 227.48 | 128 | -ND- | 77.7% |
| 77 (266) | Johan Santana | SP | NYM | 228.00 | 145 | -ND- | 77.1% |
| 78 (268) | R.A. Dickey | SP | NYM | 228.18 | 189 | -ND- | 76.8% |
| 79 (274) | Edwin Jackson | SP | WAS | 229.48 | 159 | -ND- | 31.5% |
| 80 (279) | Ted Lilly | SP | LA | 230.18 | 158 | -ND- | 49.0% |
| 81 (281) | Matt Harrison | SP | TEX | 230.48 | 194 | -ND- | 29.3% |
| 82 (282) | Gavin Floyd | SP | CHW | 230.49 | 207 | -ND- | 28.9% |
| 83 (285) | Ivan Nova | SP | NYY | 230.80 | 130 | -ND- | 55.5% |
| 84 (291) | Bud Norris | SP | HOU | 231.15 | 161 | -ND- | 62.5% |
| 85 (294) | Brett Anderson | SP | OAK | 231.44 | 182 | -ND- | 72.0% |
| 86 (295) | Mike Minor | SP | ATL | 231.45 | 181 | -ND- | 40.6% |
| 87 (297) | Mark Buehrle | SP | MIA | 232.19 | 165 | -ND- | 49.3% |
| 88 (300) | Chad Billingsley | SP | LA | 232.26 | 171 | -ND- | 67.6% |
| 89 (308) | Ryan Dempster | SP | CHC | 233.31 | 171 | -ND- | 46.5% |
| 90 (312) | Josh Collmenter | SP | ARI | 234.05 | 204 | -ND- | 39.0% |
| 91 (314) | Francisco Liriano | SP | MIN | 234.13 | 188 | -ND- | 41.4% |
| 92 (323) | Mike Leake | SP | CIN | 235.75 | 228 | -ND- | 12.9% |
| 93 (325) | Kyle Lohse | SP | STL | 235.75 | 228 | -ND- | 5.1% |
| 94 (330) | Alfredo Aceves | SP | BOS | 236.39 | 205 | -ND- | 45.8% |
| 95 (336) | Rick Porcello | SP | DET | 236.79 | 229 | -ND- | 4.3% |
| 96 (337) | Drew Pomeranz | SP | COL | 236.79 | 229 | -ND- | 4.6% |
| 97 (338) | Jeff Niemann | SP | TB | 236.79 | 229 | -ND- | 4.5% |
| 98 (342) | Luke Hochevar | SP | KC | 237.76 | 208 | -ND- | 60.1% |
| 99 (347) | Jorge DeLaRosa | SP | COL | 237.82 | 230 | -ND- | 16.2% |
| 100 (352) | Brad Peacock | SP | WAS | 239.89 | 232 | -ND- | 3.7% |
| 101 (363) | Homer Bailey | SP | CIN | 242.99 | 235 | -ND- | 9.6% |
| 102 (367) | Henderson Alvarez | SP | TOR | 245.06 | 237 | -ND- | 6.4% |
| 103 (377) | Guillermo Moscoso | SP | COL | 261.60 | 253 | -ND- | 3.1% |
| 104 (378) | Bartolo Colon | SP | OAK | 261.60 | 253 | -ND- | 0.6% |
| 105 (381) | Aaron Harang | SP | LA | 263.67 | 255 | -ND- | 9.4% |
| 106 (392) | Chris Capuano | SP | LA | 272.98 | 264 | -ND- | 3.6% |
| 107 (394) | Brian Matusz | SP | BAL | 274.01 | 265 | -ND- | 8.6% |
| 108 (395) | Jarrod Parker | SP | OAK | 274.01 | 265 | -ND- | 1.7% |
| 109 (397) | James McDonald | SP | PIT | 275.04 | 266 | -ND- | 6.0% |
| 110 (399) | A.J. Burnett | SP | NYY | 278.15 | 269 | -ND- | 3.1% |
| 111 (400) | Juan Nicasio | SP | COL | 279.18 | 270 | -ND- | 1.2% |
| 112 (401) | Jacob Turner | SP | DET | 279.18 | 270 | -ND- | 1.7% |
| 113 (405) | Josh Tomlin | SP | CLE | 282.28 | 273 | -ND- | 2.4% |
| 114 (408) | Hisashi Iwakuma | SP | SEA | 285.38 | 276 | -ND- | 0.6% |
| 115 (409) | Randy Wolf | SP | MIL | 285.38 | 276 | -ND- | 3.7% |
- Taking a pitcher in Rd 1 is not my cup of tea, unless its AL/NL only. Even then I will prolly err on the side of the hitters, because they play everyday. So Verlander going in round 1 seems awesome to me because if someone wants to waste a pick on him then better for me.
- My draft theory for starting pitching is simple, I take 3 hitters at the top of the draft and then with my 4th and 5th round pick I take the best two available starters. Recently it has been Greinke and Haren. I like taking them back to back because, guess what, I don't have to take another starter for 6 more rounds. Which in theory should give you an almost complete hitting roster (minus catcher because that's what the last pick is for).
- Everyone has lots of like and dislikes when it comes to SP, best advice when in doubt take a NL SP. The league as a whole has a better ERA and WHIP ratio. I'm not really looking for wins because they can't be counted on.
- Alot of pitchers are also hampered with the whole innings limit scenario. There are alot of top talent names that won't pitch 200 innings this year and are being drafted in the 6th-10th rounds. It starts with Strasburg and runs all the way through Jordan Zimmermann. In a keeper league yea it makes sense but in a one year league, barring inning restrictions in your league, those 50 innings are a big difference to me.
- I am not a fan of Gio Gonzalez at all. I think he was aided like most A's pitchers by ballpark effects. I also don't trust his walk rate one bit.
- I love me some Anibal Sanchez. Think he is poised to break-out even further this year than last. Once again wins are wonky and he only had 8 last year. But outperformed his ERA the last 2 years. 15 wins and 200 k's in Rd 10. Raises hand and says yes please.
- Don't underestimate the power of PETCO, Luebke is getting all types of mid-round love already. Guys like Stauffer and Volquez are decent 5th starter guys with an asterisk because they will pitch in a haven for SP.
- Don't forget about those willy veterans, I personally love these guys and have a hard time breaking myself away from guys that out perform their ERA. Guys like Ted Lilly, Edwin Jackson, Brandon McCarthy and Gavin Floyd.
- Sleepers are everywhere for SP. Some late round gems that I think will do well this year are Luke Hochevar, Brad Peacock and Chris Capuano. Hochevar seemed to turn the corner at the end of last year, overall his numbers are mediocre but his last 10 starts or so really showed something or at least to me they did. The other 2 are benefits of ballpark which can never be a bad thing for your periphs.
The key to any starting pitching is streaming. I use it to my advantage all to much and write about it on other sites. Getting key starts from 2 start guys is the key to victory in any H2H league. Free piece of advice for an advantage to streaming, check the daily betting lines for the games upcoming. The guys who determine that stuff get paid a crap-ton of money to not be wrong and to set odds that look at every facet of the game. So happy drafting and good luck. Question, comments and sentimental hellos are always welcome.