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With each week being dedicated to our consensus rankings at a particular position, the prospect staff at Fake Teams will also be providing position-specific coverage during these weeks. This will include a pair of prospect profiles, as well as a comparison post between two similar prospects at the position. And of course, we will be releasing our top 20 prospects at the position. This differs slightly from what we did last year, as these rankings are for the long term, rather than providing a separate list for the upcoming season only.
Bret Sayre, Craig Goldstein, and I have discussed the ranking of each player on these lists, and have come to a determination on each them of where they belong on the list. There are a number of groupings where, if you believe a prospect should move up or down a slot, we would probably not disagree. Prospect rankings remain a picture of what we see based on the information available at that moment in time, and are likely to change as the offseason progresses.
The top 10 prospects will be released on Tuesday of each week, and prospects 11-20 will be released on Thursday. With that, you can view our top 10 shortstop prospects here, and here are the rest of top 20 shortstop prospects:
11. Brad Miller (SEA)
The 2nd round draft pick of the Mariners in 2011, Miller had an excellent season in 2012 between High-A and AA. I discounted the numbers he posted in High Desert originally, as it has become known as a rather ridiculous offensive environment (see this game, among others this year), but Miller performed similarly in a 40 game stint in AA to end the year. Overall, reports point to him needing work on his defense, but it doesn't sound like anything that can't be improved on with work.
Estimated ETA: 2014
12. Hak-Ju Lee (TAM)
Lee's calling card to this point has been his defense, as he is widely considered one of the top defensive shortstops in the minors. He's likely to provide speed for fantasy owners, along with runs scored. However, the power isn't likely to translate to more than a few home runs a season, and I could see him translating into a .270 hitter in the Majors personally, with the upside for more.
Estimated ETA: Late 2013
13. Adalberto Mondesi (KCR) (Profile in MLKT Series)
The hype surrounding Mondesi continues to grow, as John Sickels ranked him as the #7 prospect in the Royals system, and Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus ranked him as the #4 prospect in that system as well. He could be near the top of these rankings come this time next year.
Estimated ETA: 2017
14. Jace Peterson (SD)
Peterson has stolen 89 bases in just 187 games in the minors so far, and this will definitely be his calling card as he moves through the system. Peterson features above average plate discipline (62 BB:63 K this year), and sounds like a top of the order type in the long-term. The reports on Peterson also seem to indicate that he could start to move quickly, as he will be 23 in May and has not played above Low-A yet.
Estimated ETA: Late 2014/Early 2015
15. Jonathan Villar (HOU)
A point of contention when we were doing our rankings, Villar has shown an excellent combination of power and speed in his stops, clubbing 11 home runs and stealing 8 bases in just 86 games last year at AA. Villar improved his strikeout rate in 2012, but still struck out at a 23% clip. I have concerns about his makeup, as it generally isn't a good sign when you miss the rest of your season after punching a door during a game.
Estimated ETA: 2014
16. Chris Owings (ARI) (Profile in MLKT Series)
The main concern with Owings remains whether his ability to avoid strikeouts/take walks can improve enough to a passable level. If he can improve on that, he could easily be a top 10 prospect this time next year given his power potential.
Estimated ETA: 2014
17. Derek Dietrich (MIA)
Dietrich was traded earlier this week by the Rays, and reached AA in their system by the end of last year. Realistically, he probably profiles better at either 2B or 3B, and the Rays seemed to agree by the end of the season. That said, he has shown solid power potential, and I would not be surprised if the Marlins continue to play him at shortstop until he proves without a doubt that he cannot.
Estimated ETA: 2014
18. Luis Sardinas (TEX)
Sardinas' defense is good enough to likely keep him at shortstop in the long term, and realistically he needs consistent at bats and chances. He has missed time in each of his professional seasons due to injuries, but appears to have the potential to provide solid batting average and some solid speed.
Estimated ETA: Late 2015/Early 2016
19. Didi Gregorius (CIN) (Profile in MLKT Series)
Gregorius is a prospect for me that it becomes difficult to tell what he is for fantasy purposes. He doesn't appear to be very likely to provide more than 5-7 home runs and 5-10 stolen bases in a full season of at bats. Gregorius could get a shot as the utility guy for the Reds this year, but he seems to me like a prospect who will be substantially more useful for his real life team than for your fantasy team.
Estimated ETA: 2013
20. Nick Ahmed (ATL)
It sounds like Ahmed has the potential to stick at the position long term, and could provide solid speed along with a decent batting average and decent power. The common theme in the reports I have read about Ahmed is that he seems to play up beyond what his tools profile might indicate. At this point he is more of a watch-and-see, and could potentially be a 5-10 HR, 30 SB type if everything breaks the right way.
Estimated ETA: Late 2014/2015