Fake Teams 2013 Consensus Shortstop Rankings: Part 1

Bret opened Shortstop Week here at Fake Teams with the State of the Shortstop Position earlier this morning. Today, I will give you Part 1 of the Fake Teams Consensus Shortstop Rankings for 2013. Included with our rankings is a short player profile on each player, along with my 2013 projections and guesstimate for when to draft each player.

Only one point separates the first three fantasy shortstops in our 2013 rankings. Hanley Ramirez is our #1 fantasy shortstop for 2013, but Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro tied him in our rankings, but was ranked second since he received only one first place vote. I was the lone writer to still rank Troy Tulowitzki as my #1 fantasy shortstop, but can see the reasons for dropping him a spot or two in your rankings.

Let's take a look at the Fake Teams Consensus Shortstop Rankings for 2013, following by player profiles for shortstops ranked 1 - 13:

Rank	Player	Team	Ray	Bret	Jason	Craig	Score
1	Hanley Ramirez	LAD	2	1	4	1	104
2	Starlin Castro	CHC	3	2	1	2	104
3	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	1	3	2	3	103
4	Jose Reyes	MIA	5	4	3	6	94
5	Ben Zobrist	TB	6	6	7	4	89
6	Jimmy Rollins	PHI	4	5	5	10	88
7	Derek Jeter	NYY	9	9	6	5	83
8	Ian Desmond	WSH	8	7	8	9	80
9	Elvis Andrus	TEX	7	8	13	7	77
10	Asdrubal Cabrera	CLE	10	12	11	8	71
11	Danny Espinosa	WSH	12	10	9	12	69
12	Alcides Escobar	KC	15	11	10	11	65
13	Alexei Ramirez	CHW	14	14	14	13	57
14	J.J. Hardy	BAL	11	20	12	16	53
15	Josh Rutledge	COL	13	19	17	18	45
16	Zack Cozart	CIN	20	15	18	20	39
17	Marco Scutaro	SF	19	18	15	21	39
18	Jed Lowrie	HOU	18	22	19	15	38
19	Everth Cabrera	SD	23	13	22	19	35
20	Jhonny Peralta	DET	21	24	24	14	29
21	Erick Aybar	LAA	NR	25	16	17	26
22	Jean Segura	MLW	16	16	NR	NR	24
23	Dee Gordon	LAD	24	23	23	24	18
24	Stephen Drew	OAK	NR	21	20	NR	15
25	Ruben Tejada	NYM	17	NR	NR	25	14

Below are the player profiles for Fake Teams Consensus Top Shortstop Rankings for 2013, for shortstops ranked 1 - 13:

1. Hanley Ramirez, LAD

Well, I guess I was wrong on Hanley last season. He put up his 5th 20 home run, 20 stolen base season in his seven year career in 2012, hitting .257-.322-.437 with 24 HRs, 79 runs, 92 RBI and 21 stolen bases. While his home run total jumped back to 2009 levels, his 19.8% strikeout rate was the worst of his career, and his 8.1% walk rate was his worst since 2007. He batted fifth in the Dodgers lineup after the trade that brought Adrian Gonzalez from Boston to Los Angeles. I imagine he will continue to bat fifth in 2013, so he should be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities with Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez hitting ahead of him.

2013 Projection: I see Hanley improving his batting average slightly, hitting .265 with 25 HRs, 85 runs, 95 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013. He should be the top shortstop off the board in fantasy drafts, going in the second-third round in most mixed league drafts, and I could see him as a late first round, early second round choice in NL only leagues.

2. Starlin Castro, CHC

We saw Castro's batting average drop a bit in 2012, and he turned a few of his doubles into home runs, and stole a few more bases as well. I think Castro is on the cusp of a 20-20 season, and as he matures at the plate, we could see that in the next year or so. Castro hit .283-.323-.430 with 14 HRs, 78 runs, 78 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 2012. Castro was juggled between batting 2nd, 3rd and 5th in the Cubs lineup in 2012, as he batted second 53 times, batted third 56 times and batted fifth 50 times. He ended the season in the 5 hole, so I wonder if Cubs manager Dale Sveum will keep him there in 2013. If so, he should have more RBI opportunities as a result.

2013 Projection: I see Castro hitting .290 with 16 HRs, 80 runs, 85 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted in the fourth-fifth rounds in mixed leagues and third round in NL only leagues in 2013.

3. Troy Tulowitzki, COL

The reason for Tulowitzki dropping to third in our rankings is simple-he is injury prone. Here are his games played going back to 2008:

2008: 101 games

2009: 151 games

2010: 122 games

2011: 143 games

2012: 47 games

Tulowitzki was once a sure fire first round pick in mixed and NL only leagues, but no more. He will have to prove to fantasy owners that he can stay healthy for more than 100-120 games. He missed 115 games last season due to a groin injury, and at 6'3", 215 pounds, I think he should be moved off of shortstop. A move to either first base or third base makes sense to me, as shortstop is one of the more demanding positions on the field, and the Rockies are paying him quite a bit of money to stay on the field. A move to third base till prospect Nolan Arenado is ready would allow the Rockies to keep Josh Rutledge at shortstop. When healthy, Tulowitzki is very productive, as he proved in his 47 games in 2012. He hit .287-.360-.486 with 8 HRs, 33 runs and 27 RBI in 181 at bats last season. He should be ready for spring training in 2013, but fantasy owners will have to balance his excellent production at shortstop with the risk he brings.

2013 Projection: Assuming he can play 140 games in 2013, I see Tulo hitting .290 with 25 HRs, 85 runs and 90 RBI in 2013, and see him drafted in the 5th-6th rounds of mixed league drafts, and the 3rd round in NL only drafts.

4. Jose Reyes, TOR

Reyes, now a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, had one of his better seasons at the plate in 2012, as he walked more than he struck out for the second straight season. He is now one of the best leadoff hitters in the game, as he has extra base power, as his 60 extra base hits indicate, and the speed to steal 40 bases. Reyes hit .287-.347-.433 with 11 HRs, 37 doubles and 12 triples, 86 runs, 57 RBI and 40 stolen bases for the disappointing Marlins last season. Moving over to the American League, I could see him scoring more than 100 runs leading off for a solid Blue Jays lineup next season. We also could see a bump in his home run totals moving to Toronto.

2013 Projection: I see Reyes hitting .290 with 14 HRs, 105 runs, 55 RBI and 33 stolen bases in 2013, and see him being drafted in the 5th round of mixed league drafts and 2nd-3rd round of AL only drafts.

5. Ben Zobrist, TB

Zobrist gained shortstop eligibility last season, and is one of the more undervalued players in fantasy baseball. Zobrist put up his third 20 home run season in the last four years, and also put up his fourth straight double digit stolen base season in 2012. Zobrist hit .270-.377-.471 with 20 HRs, 88 runs, 74 RBI and 14 stolen bases last season, and his 0.94 BB/K rate was the best of his career. On top of the three 20 HR seasons, and four straight double digit stolen base seasons, Zobrist has scored 77 or more runs, and knocked in 74 or more runs in four straight seasons now. All this tells me he comes as a low risk option at shortstop in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Zobrist hitting .275 with 22 home runs, 85 runs, 85 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted around the 6th round of mixed league drafts and the third round in AL only league drafts.

6. Jimmy Rollins, PHI

Rollins quietly put up an excellent season for fantasy owners in 2012, hitting .250-.316-.427, which on the surface is not very good at all. Somehow that triple slash line resulted in Rollins hitting 23 HRs, scoring 102 runs, driving in 68 runs and stealing 30 bases. One can make the case that he is still a top 5 fantasy shortstop putting up numbers like that. He led all shortstops in runs scored, and was third in home runs and stolen bases, so he is still a very valuable fantasy asset. What probably hurts him is his age - he just turned 34 years of age, so at some point, his numbers could fall off a cliff.

2013 Projection: I see Rollins hitting .260 with 20 HRs, 95 runs, 65 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 2013. Rollins shop should be one of the the top shortstops off the board. I see him being drafted in the 6th-7th round in mixed leagues and in the 3rd round of NL only leagues.

7. Derek Jeter, NYY

I ranked Jeter as my 9th ranked fantasy shortstop in 2013, and there is a chance he is a disappointment as we have no idea how quickly he will return from his broken ankle. I have never broken my ankle, so I am not sure. It's just my hunch, as he is 38 years of age and plays one of the toughest positions in the game. Jeter did have an excellent 2012 season, hitting .316-.362-.429 with 15 HRs, 99 runs, 58 RBI and 9 stolen bases. I could see him not running as much next season.

2013 Projection: I see Jeter being a bit of a disappointment in 2013, hitting .285 with 10 home runs, 70 runs, 50 RBI and 3 stolen bases. He should be drafted in the 10th-11th rounds in mixed leagues, and in the 6th round in AL only leagues.

8. Ian Desmond, WAS

Desmond is coming off his best season as a major leaguer, as he hit .292-.335-.511 with 25 HRs, 72 runs, 73 RBI and 21 stolen bases in 2012. His batting average was bouyed by a .332 BABIP, so he experienced some luck at the plate, and we could see some regression in 2013. He hit more home runs last season than he did in 2+ years heading into 2012. Couple that with a tripling of his HR/FB rate from 6.0% to 18.2%, and we could see his home run totals drop along with his batting average.

2013 Projection: i see Desmond hitting .270 with 14 HRs, 70 runs, 55 RBI an 20 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted around the 12th-13th round in mixed leagues, and 5th round in NL only leagues.

9. Elvis Andrus, TEX

You're never going to draft Andrus for his power, but Andrus is a four category producer in the middle of the infield. He had one of his best years at the plate, hitting .286-.349-.378 with 3 HRs, 85 runs, 62 RBI and 21 stolen bases last season, mostly batting second in the explosive Rangers lineup. His stolen base totals dropped from 37 in 2011 to just 21 in 2012, as he attempted just 31 stolen bases after stealing 30+ in each of his first three seasons in the big leagues.

2013 Projection: I see Andrus hitting .280 with 4 HRs, 88 runs, 60 RBI and 30 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted in the 10th round in mixed league drafts and 5th-6th round of AL only leagues.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE

Cabrera had a career year in 2011, and many felt he would be hard pressed in duplicating that performance in 2012. They were right, but Cabrera did have a solid season for fantasy owners, as he hit .270-.339-.423 with 16 HRs, 70 runs, 68 RBI and 9 stolen bases. His power dropped a bit, from a .187 ISO in 2011 to a .153 ISO last season, but we did see some growth from him at the plate. Cabrera improved his plate discipline as his walk rate improved from 6.6% to 8.4%, and his strikeout rate improved from 17.8% to 16.1%, so there might more batting average/power growth in his future.

2013 Projecton: Cabrera is the subject of trade rumors this offseason, so he could be playing shortstop for a different team in 2013. Assuming he is not, I see Cabrera hitting .280 with 19 HRs, 80 runs, 75 RBI and 12 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted in the 8th-9th round in mixed leagues and 5th round in AL only leagues.

11. Danny Espinosa, WAS

With all the middle infielders in the Nationals system, Espinosa has been rumored to be on the trading block. The reason: the strikeouts. He strikes out far too much, as he whiffed 189 times last season, or just under 29% of his plate appearances. He hit .247-.315-.402 with 17 HRs, 82 runs, 56 RBI and 20 stolen bases, so the triple slash line is not impressive. But, what is impressive is the power and speed that he provides fantasy owners. although all that comes with batting average risk.

2013 Projection: I see Espinosa hitting .250 with 20 HRs, 80 runs, 60 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013, and see him being drafted in the 10th - 11th rounds in mixed leagues and 6th round in NL only leagues.

12. Alcides Escobar, KC

Escobar finally showed why the Royals traded Zack Greinke for a package headlined by him a few seasons ago. Escobar hit .293-.331-.390 with 5 HRs, 68 runs, 52 RBI and 35 stolen bases. The bump in batting average was driven by a .344 BABIP, up from a .285 BABIP in 2011. He will never provide much power for your fantasy lineup, but what he should provide is a solid batting average, maybe 80-90 runs scored and the potential to steal 40 bases every season.

2013 Projection: I see Escobar hitting .275 with 80 runs scored, 60 RBI and 30+ stolen bases again in 2013. He should be drafted around the 14th-15th rounds in mixed leagues and 7th-8th round in AL only leagues.

13. Alexei Ramirez, CHW

Ramirez surprised in the stolen base category in 2012, as he stole 20 bases for the first time in his career, but there were some signs of concern otherwise. Ramirez's walk rate dropped from a decent 7.5% rate to an absurdly low 2.6% in 2012, so his batting eye took a hit. In addition, his home run total was almost cut in half, from 15 in 2011 to just 9 last season, as his HR/FB% dropped from 8.1% to 5.1%. His plate discipline and power dropped in 2012, so one has to wonder if it was a one year aberration or a sign of a decline. He hit .265-.267-.364 with 9 HRs, 59 runs, 73 RBI and 20 stolen bases last year, and I am thinking he has one more good season in his bat for fantasy owners in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Ramirez hitting .265 with 14 HRs, 65 runs, 70 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 2013, and should be drafted in the 16th round of mixed league drafts and 10th-11th round in AL only league drafts.