Fake Teams 2013 Consensus Outfielder Rankings: Part 3

I provided player profiles for outfielders ranked 1-40 in our Consensus Outfielder Rankings for 2013 last week, and today I will discuss a few more guys ranked in the 40-60 range who could help fantasy owners in 2013, but come with question marks. Can Norichika Aoki duplicate his breakout rookie season? Will Andre Ethier be more valuable as a platoon player than as a full time regular in 2013? Can Jayson Werth return to being a 20-20 hitter in the stacked Nationals lineup?

Here are the outfielders ranked 26-75 in our 2013 Consensus Outfielder Rankings, and my thoughts on a few more outfielders who I think are interesting in 2013.

Jayson Werth, WAS

Werth missed almost three months last season with another wrist injury, but hit well at the plate, hitting .300-.387-.400 with 5 HRs, 42 runs, 31 RBI and 8 stolen bases in 81 games. Over the last two months, after returning from the injury, he hit just two home runs, but did hit 16 doubles and 2 triples in just over 200 at bats. He also cut down his strikeout rate from 24.7% to 16.6%, indicating he might have shortened his swing after the wrist injury. His walk rate bumped up a little as well, from 11.4% to 12.2%. With Denard Span now manning center field and leading off, Werth will move from the leadoff spot to either the 5th or 6th spot in the Nationals lineup in 2013, so he could see more RBI opportunities as a result. I don't see him returning to the 20+ home run hitter he was from 2008-2011, but could see him eclipsing the 20 stolen base level.

Andre Ethier, LAD

Ethier is one of the more consistent hitters in baseball, as you know he is good for 20 HRs, 80+ RBI and a .280+ batting average when healthy. Last season, he hit .284-.351-.460 with 20 HRs, 79 runs, and 89 RBI in 149 games, the most games he has played since 2009. The bad news with Ethier is the fact that manager Don Mattingly hinted that he may consider platooning Ethier vs lefties in 2013. On the surface, this is bad news, as his at bats would drop by about 200 if it is a strict platoon. His counting stats would suffer as a result as well. But consider his career platoon splits:

vs LHP: .238-.296-.352 in 1,010 at bats

vs RHP: .311-.387-.526 in 2,514 at bats

He hit 16 of his 20 home runs, and drove in 60 of his 89 runs, vs right-handed pitching in 2012, but hit .325-.398-.546, so he would lose counting stats, as I mentioned previously, but you would have a much better BA and OBP, for those of you in OBP leagues, from him as well. So, the question is, will the increase in batting average offset the drop in counting stats? I also have a feeling the hiring of Mark McGwire as their hitting coach will yield positive results in 2013.

Nick Markakis, BAL

Markakis is another outfielder who missed some time due to injury in 2012, playing in just over 100 games, hitting .298-.363-.471 with 13 HRs, 59 runs and 54 RBI. Gone are the double digit stolen bases, but the power, as measured by ISO and SLG, increased to his best rate since 2008. I wonder if we could see a return to the 20 home run level from him in 2013. One stat that might hinder a return to the 20 home run level is the fact that Markakis' line drive rate is in a 3 year uptrend, which is good for his batting average, but his fly ball rate in in a down trend over the same period.

Norichika Aoki, MIL

Aoki started the 2012 season as a 4th outfielder and ended the season as the Brewers leadoff hitter. And a good one at that. In 151 games, Aoki hit .288-.355-.433 with 10 HRs, 81 runs, 50 runs and 30 stolen bases in his "rookie" season in MLB. Along with the 10 home runs, he hit 37 doubles and 4 triples for a total of 51 extra base hits, pretty good for a leadoff hitter. His 30 stolen bases tied him for 12th in the majors. The question for fantasy owners is can he duplicate this performance in 2013. He is probably a late round pick in many leagues, capable of outperforming his draft round. Smokey wrote this piece on Aoki earlier in the week, where he projects him for 100 runs and 40 stolen bases in 2013. I would not be surprised if he met Smokey's projection.

Michael Cuddyer, COL

Heading into the 2012 season, many projected Cuddyer to hit close to 30 home runs since he was making Colorado's Coors Field home for 81 games. Well, Cuddyer played in just 101 games due to various injuries, hitting .260-.317-.489 with 16 HRs, 53 runs, 58 RBI and he threw in 8 stolen bases. The stat that jumps out for me is his ISO, as it jumped from .176 in 2011 to .229 in 2012. Along with the 16 home runs, Cuddyer also hit 30 doubles in his 358 at bats, so he could be a mid-round steal in 2013 drafts in 2013.

I plan to write some individual pieces on Carlos Gomez, Dexter Fowler and Cody Ross over the holidays, so look out for those along with a possible chat if I can squeeze some free time later in the week.