Fake Teams 2013 Consensus Outfielder Rankings: Part 2

I published Part 1 of our 2013 Consensus Outfielder Rankings on Monday, and today, I bring you Part 2 with player profiles for outfielders ranked 26-40. I will follow that with Part 3, on either Friday or Monday, that will include player profiles for some outfielders I feel are interesting for 2013.

As Bret mentioned in his State of the Position article on Monday, many of the guys ranked 30 or lower come with question marks of some sort. I like Josh Willingham as a solid power source, but can he repeat his 2012 power burst? What do we make of Melky Cabrera now that he is in Toronto, fresh off his PED suspension? And will Dodgers manager Don Mattingly end up platooning Andre Ethier due to his inability to hit lefties?

For answers to all these questions, let's take a look at Part 2 of our Consensus Outfielder Rankings for 2013, with player profiles for players ranked 26-40:

Rank	Player	Ray	Bret	Jason	Craig	Score
26	Ben Zobrist	21	27	23	32	209
27	Shin Soo-Choo	26	22	21	34	209
28	Michael Morse	25	29	33	24	201
29	Corey Hart	24	32	30	27	199
30	Josh Willingham	15	33	39	28	197
31	Melky Cabrera	38	34	35	22	183
32	Hunter Pence	28	35	32	38	179
33	Carl Crawford	32	28	37	41	174
34	Josh Reddick	49	36	27	30	170
35	Jason Kubel	35	37	38	36	166
36	Mark Trumbo	31	30	31	62	158
37	Nelson Cruz	42	39	34	39	158
38	Nick Swisher	43	40	49	37	143
39	Chris Davis	37	52	46	35	142
40	Jayson Werth	40	31	56	46	139
41	Alfonso Soriano	36	53	29	61	133
42	Shane Victorino	50	38	42	51	131
43	Andre Ethier	34	64	55	31	128
44	Nick Markakis	55	46	57	33	121
45	Dexter Fowler	44	48	54	47	119
46	Torii Hunter	48	51	36	59	118
47	Martin Prado	45	45	47	67	108
48	Michael Cuddyer	46	42	62	55	107
49	Garrett Jones	41	68	43	54	106
50	Lorenzo Cain	58	41	72	40	101
51	Norichika Aoki	56	55	40	64	97
52	Coco Crisp	62	44	41	70	95
53	Matt Joyce	52	47	NR	45	90
54	Starling Marte	59	43	73	48	89
55	Carlos Gomez	39	74	48	65	86
56	Angel Pagan	47	69	51	60	85
57	Cameron Maybin	70	50	58	52	82
58	Michael Saunders	NR	66	44	42	82
59	Colby Rasmus	64	49	NR	43	78
60	Brett Gardner	54	62	51	68	77
61	Wil Myers	53	59	71	58	71
62	Tyler Colvin	67	57	45	74	69
63	Emilio Bonifacio	NR	54	67	44	69
64	Ichiro Suzuki	74	56	66	50	66
65	Alejandro De Aza	65	60	64	57	66
66	Ryan Ludwick	51	58	61	NR	64
67	Cody Ross	60	67	60	66	59
68	Logan Morrison	NR	NR	59	49	48
69	David Murphy	NR	61	50	NR	45
70	Carlos Quentin	57	65	NR	69	43
71	Dayan Viciedo	NR	NR	63	53	40
72	Adam Eaton	61	NR	65	NR	30
73	Ben Revere	73	63	68	NR	30
74	Rajai Davis	NR	75	53	NR	28
75	Travis Snider	NR	NR	NR	56	22

We went 75 deep in our Outfielder Rankings, and today I profile outfielders ranked 26-40 in Part 2 of our Outfielder Rankings.

26. Ben Zobrist, TB

Zobrist is one of the most consistent hitters for fantasy owners, as he is always good for double digit power and speed, 80-90 runs and RBI and a .260 batting average. His batted ball profile didn't fluctuate much in 2012, he made more contact (83.8% vs 82.7%), and put himself in more hitter's counts as his first pitch strike percentage dropped from 54.2% to 52.7% and his swinging strike rate dropped as well.

2013 Projection: I see Zobrist hitting .270 with 22 HRs, 85 runs, 85 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 2013, and see him drafted in the 6th-7th rounds in mixed leagues, and 4th round in AL only leagues.

27. Shin-Soo Choo, CIN

As Craig mentioned in the comments section in Part 1 of our Outfielder Rankings, we completed our rankings before Choo was dealt to the Reds. Choo's value certainly improved with the move to the hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. Choo quietly had a very good season in 2012, hitting .283-.373-.441 with 43 doubles, 16 HRs, 88 runs, 67 RBI and 21 stolen bases, and I think he can improve on those numbers in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Choo hitting .290 with 20 HRs, 95 runs, 75 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013, and see him drafted around the 10th-11th round in mixed leagues and 3rd-5th rounds in NL only leagues.

28. Michael Morse, WAS

Morse is a personal favorite of mine even though I have never owned him. Morse hit .291-.321-.470 with 18 HRs, 53 runs and 62 RBI in just 102 games last season. After missing the first two months of the season, Morse hit .299 or better in three of the last four months of the season. Morse will have to turn more of his ground balls into fly balls in 2013 to improve his home run total.

2013 Projection: I see Morse hitting .290 with 25-30 HRs, 70 runs, and 90 RBI next season, and see him being drafted in the 12th-13th rounds in mixed leagues, and 4th-5th rounds in NL only leagues.

29. Corey Hart, MIL

Hart is another guy I like a lot, as he has hit 87 HRs over the last three seasons, good for 18th in all of baseball, and more than Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday and Joey Votto, among others. He consistently puts up 40% fly ball rates (with the exception of 2011), and double digit HR/FB rates, so I see another 30 home run season from him in 2013. Couple his batted ball data with the fact that Miller Park increased home runs by 63% (is that right?) in 2012. According to ESPN, Miller Park's home run factor was 1.631 in 2012.

2013 Projection: I see Hart hitting .270 with 32 HRs, 85 runs, and 85 RBI in 2013. He should be drafted in the 10th-11th rounds in mixed leagues and 4th round in NL only leagues.

30. Josh Willingham, MIN

Willingham had a huge power breakout in 2012, hitting .260-.366-.524 with 35 HRs, 85 runs and 110 RBI, all career highs. In 2012, we saw his strikeout rate drop from 26.6% to 22.9%, while his walk rate improved to 12.4% from 9.9%. His power benefitted from a jump in his HR/FB% from 17.5% to 21.2% last season, despite a drop in his fly ball rate from 48% to 43%.

2013 Projection: I see Willingham hitting .255 with 27 HRs, 80 runs and 90 RBI in 2013, and see him drafted in the 7th-8th rounds in mixed leagues and 4th round in AL only leagues.

31. Melky Cabrera, TOR

Melky signed with the improved Blue Jays a few weeks ago and figures to be their everyday left fielder in 2013. He was in the midst of his best year ever before he was suspended for 50 games for PED use. Now fantasy owners are left to wonder if 2012 was a fluke, or a new level of performance for him. He hit .346-.390-.516 with 11 HRs, 84 runs, 60 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 113 games last season, but he benefitted from an extremely high .379 BABIP, which was 47 points higher than his career high BABIP.

2013 Projection: I see Cabrera hitting .300 with 10 HRs, 85 runs, 50 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 2013, and see him being drafted in the 13th round in mixed leagues and 6th round in AL only leagues.

32. Hunter Pence, SFG

Pence put up his worst triple slash line of his career last season, yet still hit 24 HRs and drove in a career high 104 runs in stints with the Phillies and Giants. If his 59 games as a Giant are any indication of how he will perform in 2013, he may be ranked a bit too high here at 32. He hit just .219-.287-.384 with 7 HRs, 28 runs and 45 RBI. I have a feeling he will hit better than .219 in 2013, but his power may drop a bit playing in San Francisco.

2013 Projection: I see Pence hitting .270 with 20 HRs, 80 runs and 80 RBI in 2013, and should be drafted in the 15th round in mixed leagues and 8th round in NL only leagues.

33. Carl Crawford, LAD

Crawford is another outfielder full of question marks. We don't know if he will be ready for spring training, or Opening Day, for that matter.But if he is, he should hit at the top of a solid Dodgers lineup and score plenty of runs. Most people on the internet are down on Crawford in LA, but I think he will have a chip on his shoulder in 2013. Ok, I HOPE he has a chip on his shoulder, to prove his naysayers wrong. In the small sample size that was 2012, he hit .282-.306-.479 with 3 HRs, 23 runs, 19 RBI and 5 stolen bases, and had almost as many extra base hits as singles.

2013 Projection: I see Crawford hitting .280 with 12 HRs, 100 runs, 65 RBI and 30 stolen bases in 2013, assuming he is ready on Opening Day, which is no guarantee. Projecting his draft round will all be contingent on his health in Spring Training.

34. Josh Reddick, OAK

Reddick had a power breakout in 2012, hitting .242-.305-.463 with 32 HRs, 85 runs, 85 RBI and 11 stolen bases. He hits a ton of fly balls, as his 49.6% fly ball rate indicates, so if he can maintain his double digit HR/FB rate, he should, again hit 25+ home runs in 2013. In an effort to hit for more power, Reddick expanded his strike zone, made less contact and swung and missed more than he did in 2011.

2013 Projection: I see Reddick hitting .250 with 28 HRs, 80 runs, 80 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 2013, and he should be drafted around the 14th-16th rounds in mixed leagues, and 9th round in AL only leagues.

35. Jason Kubel, ARI

Kubel moved to Arizona and hit a career high 30 home runs in 2012. He has been the subject of trade rumors lately, as the Diamondbacks have an endless supply of outfielders on their 40 man roster right now. Kubel hit just .253-.327-.506 with 30 HRs, 75 runs and 90 RBI last season, and while doing so he raised his strikeout rate from 21.4% to 26.4%, and bumped his walk rate as well. His fly ball rate has stayed constant over the last three years, but his HR/FB rate jumped from 9.8% to 19.0% last season, so he seemed to like hitting in Chase Field.

2013 Projection: I see Kubel hitting .260 with 27 HRs, 70 runs, and 85 RBI in 2013, and should be drafted around the 12th-13th round in mixed leagues and 6th round in NL only leagues.

36. Mark Trumbo, LAA

Trumbo is another subject of trade rumors now that the Angels have signed Josh Hamilton, and they still have a need for a starting pitcher. Trumbo hit .268-.317-.491 with 32 HRs, 65 runs and 95 RBI last year, and also saw his strikeout rate jump from 20.9% to 26.1%. After hitting .306-.358-.608 with 22 HRs and 57 RBI in the first half of 2012, Trumbo struggled mightily in the second half, hitting just .227-.271-.359 with 10 HRs and 38 RBI. Fantasy owners will have to decide which Trumbo will show up in 2013: the first half Trumbo or the second half Trumbo.

2013 Projection: I see Trumbo hitting .260 with 30 HRs, 65 runs and 85 RBI in 2013, and should be drafted in the 12th round in mixed league drafts and in the 5th-6th round in AL only leagues.

37. Nelson Cruz, TEX

Cruz played in a career high 159 games last season, hitting .260-.319-.460 with 24 HRs, 86 runs and 90 RBI. His power, as measured by ISO, is in a three year downtrend, so that bares watching for fantasy owners in 2013.

2009: .278

2010: .264

2011: .258

2012: .200

Cruz's health will be even more important now that Josh Hamilton has signed with division rival Angels.

2013 Projection: I see Cruz hitting .260 with 22 HRs, 80 runs and 80 RBI in 2013, and see him being drafted in the 13th-14th rounds in mixed leagues and 8th round in AL only leagues.

38. Nick Swisher, FA

Swisher could be signing with Cleveland, as he has a standing offer on the table from the tea,. Swisher's value probably takes a bit of a hit leaving the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. Swisher hit .272-.364-.473 with 24 HRs, 75 runs and 93 RBI last season, and has now hit 20 or more home runs in nine straight seasons.

2013 Projection: I see Swisher hitting .265 with 20 HRs, 70 RBI and 80 RBI in 2013, and see him drafted in the 12th round in mixed leagues and 7th round in AL only leagues.

39. Chris Davis, BAL

Davis had a breakout year in 2012, hitting .270-.326-.501 with 33 HRs, 75 runs and 85 RBI in 139 games, yet strikes out way too much. Davis struck out in 30.1% of his plate appearances, while walking in just 6.6%, so he needs to make more contact to repeat his 2012 season. Davis' K rate was the fifth worst in baseball, while his 25.6% HR/FB rate was the third highest in baseball.

2013 Projection: I see Davis hitting .255 with 25 HRs, 65 runs and 70 RBI in 2013, and see him drafted around the 14th round in mixed leagues and 9th round in AL only leagues.

40. Jayson Werth, WAS

Werth missed half the season with a broken wrist, but when he played, he looked like he was over his dismal 2011 season. Werth hit .300-.387-.440 with 5 HRs, 42 runs, 31 RBI and 8 stolen bases in 81 games last season. He should be completely healthy entering the 2013 season, so we should see his power rebound a bit in 2013. His .300 batting average was buffered by a .356 BABIP, which I don't see him repeating in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Werth hitting .275 with 18 HRs, 85 runs, 70 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013, and see him being drafted in the later rounds of mixed league drafts and around the 8th-9th rounds in NL only leagues.

Are your following me on Twitter? You can follow me on Twitter at @faketeams.

I will publish Part 3 of the Outfielder Ranking profiles on Friday or Monday.