Fake Teams 2013 Consensus Outfielder Rankings: Part 1

Bret opened Outfielder Week with the State of the Position earlier this morning, and now it is time for our 2013 Consensus Outfield Rankings. We went 75 deep in our outfielder rankings, so today I provide player profiles on our Top 25 Outfielders for 2013, and follow that up with rankings for outfielders ranked 26 - 75 on Wednesday morning.

Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun silenced his critics last season by putting up a very similar, and in some ways better, season than he did in 2011 when he won the National League MVP Award. Braun and Angels outfielder Mike Trout both garnered two first place votes and two second place votes in our rankings and both sit atop our 2013 Consensus Outfielder Rankings. But that shouldn't surprise you.

Giancarlo Stanton made his way into the top 5 of our outfielder rankings based on his excellent 2012 season where he hit 37 home runs in just over 500 plate appearances. Imagine if he played a season free of injury?

One thing I would like to point out is due to the fact that we went 75 deep in our outfielder rankings, you will see wider variances in individual player rankings between Bret, Jason, Craig and myself. Case in point is Toronto outfielder Jose Bautista. I ranked him as my 23rd ranked outfielder, Bret ranked him at 16, while Jason and Craig both ranked him as their 9th ranked outfielder for 2013.

Now let's take a look at our Top 25 Outfielder Rankings for 2013:

Rank	Player	Ray	Bret	Jason	Craig	Score
1	Ryan Braun	1	1	2	2	306
2	Mike Trout	2	2	1	1	306
3	Andrew McCutchen	4	3	3	6	296
4	Matt Kemp	3	4	7	3	295
5	Giancarlo Stanton	5	6	4	7	290
6	Josh Hamilton	6	8	5	4	289
7	Carlos Gonzalez	10	5	6	5	286
8	Matt Holliday	9	11	8	10	274
9	Justin Upton	7	7	11	14	273
10	Jason Heyward	8	10	10	11	273
11	Adam Jones	14	17	12	8	261
12	Bryce Harper	13	9	16	15	259
13	Allen Craig	11	12	13	21	255
14	Jose Bautista	23	16	9	9	255
15	Yoenis Cespedes	16	13	17	12	254
16	Curtis Granderson	19	14	14	18	247
17	Jay Bruce	12	23	22	13	242
18	Carlos Beltran	18	19	18	17	240
19	Jacoby Ellsbury	29	15	19	16	233
20	Michael Bourn	33	18	15	20	226
21	B.J. Upton	20	25	25	19	223
22	Alex Rios	22	24	20	23	223
23	Alex Gordon	27	20	26	26	213
24	Desmond Jennings	17	26	28	29	212
25	Austin Jackson	30	21	24	25	212

Below are the player profiles for outfielders ranked 1 - 25 in our Consensus Outfielder Rankings for 2013:

1. Ryan Braun, MIL

Braun followed up his MVP season in 2011 with another tremendous season at the plate in 2012, by hitting .319-.391-.595 with 41 HRs, 108 runs, 112 RBI and 30 stolen bases. Braun is one of the more consistent fantasy producers in baseball, and you can count on a 30+ home run, 20+ stolen base season almost every year. He is in his peak years as a hitter, so bid and draft accordingly in 2013. For me, he is the #1 pick in fantasy drafts next season, but one could certainly argue for the guy ranked just below Braun here, or Tiger's third baseman Miguel Cabrera.

2013 Projection: I think Braun has another 40 HR season in him, so I see him hitting .300 with 40 HRs, 100 runs, 110 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 2013, and he should be drafted first overall in both mixed and NL only leagues.

2. Mike Trout, LAA

Trout put up the best rookie season anyone has ever had. Ever. He hit .326-.399-.564 with 30 HRs, a major league leading 129 runs, 83 RBI and a major league leading 49 stolen bases. I find it hard to believe that he can duplicate that production again in 2013, as I see the power and batting average dropping a bit, but do see him eclipsing the 50 stolen base level, and with Albert Pujols and now Josh Hamilton hitting behind him, he should have no problem scoring 100+ runs again. He's proven throughout his short minor league career and in 2012 that he is a high BABIP hitting, mainly due to his ability to beat out grounders to shortstop.

2013 Projection: I see Trout hitting .300 with 25 HRs, 100+runs, 75 RBI and 50+ stolen bases in 2013. I would not have a problem if someone drafted him first overall in a mixed league, and he should be drafted first overall in AL only leagues.

3. Andrew McCutchen, PIT

McCutchen put up his best year of his career in 2012, hitting .327-.400-.553 with 31 HRs, 107 runs, 96 RBI and 20 stolen bases. His overall season numbers were bouyed by an extremely high .375 BABIP, and his home run total benefitted from a rise in his HR/FB ratio from 12.2% to 19.4%, despite a drop in fly ball rate from 41.7% to 34.3%. The question for fantasy owners on draft day is: is he truly a power hitter capable of hitting 30 home runs per season, or is he more of a 20-25 home run hitter who will steal 30+ bases again?

2013 Projection: I see McCutchen hitting .290 with 25 HRs, 95 runs, 90 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 2013, and he should be drafted early in the first round in both mixed and NL only leagues.

4. Matt Kemp, LAD

Kemp battled an assortment of injuries in 2012, but still managed to hit .303-.367-.538 with 23 HRs, 74 runs, 69 RBI and 9 stolen bases in just 106 games. Kemp had offseason shoulder surgery, so fantasy owners will have to see how he fares in spring training, if he is actually ready for spring training, to determine where he should be drafted next March. If healthy, he should return to the Kemp of 2011 minus the 40 stolen bases. His HR/FB% stayed relatively the same last year, but his fly ball rate dropped about 5% to 35% as well. I assume the drop in fly ball rate resulted from the bad shoulder, so he should return to the 35 home run hitter he was two years ago.

2013 Projection: I see Kemp hitting .300 with 34 HRs, 100+ runs, 100+ RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013, and should be drafted in the first round in mixed and NL only league drafts.

5. Giancarlo Stanton, MIA

Everyone thinks Stanton has the ability to hit 50+ home runs, but I don't think he gets there in 2013. Stanton missed the start of the 2012 season due to a leg injury, and missed time in July as well, so the fact that he hit 37 home runs is mind boggling. Looking at his 2012 monthly splits, courtesy of FanGraphs, Stanton had just one month where he had over 100 at bats. Should he stay relatively healthy next season, he has a chance to reach the 50 home run level, but I think he misses out.

2013 Projection: I see Stanton hitting .280 with 45 HRs, 85 runs, 100 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 2013, and he should be drafted in the late first or early second round in mixed leagues and in the first round NL only leagues.

6. Josh Hamilton, LAA

Hamilton just signed a 5 year, $125 million deal with the LA Angels of Anaheim, so he will be moving from a hitter-friendly park in Texas to a pitcher-friendly park in Anaheim. What the move will do to his overall stat line in 2013 and beyond is left for many to wonder, and our own Marc Normandin addressed the issue in this piece on that very issue last Friday. I lean toward the move negatively impacting his stat line in 2013. Hamilton moves from a very good lineup in Texas to a pretty good lineup in Anaheim with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo and others. I see his power and batting average dropping a bit as a result of the move.

2013 Projection: I see Hamilton hitting .285 with 30 HRs, 90 runs, 100 RBI and a handful of steals in 2013, and see him being drafted in the 2nd round of mixed league drafts and 1st round in AL only league drafts.

7. Carlos Gonzalez, COL

I am the low guy of the four Fake Teams writers on Cargo, as i see a negative trend in his power stats over the last two years:

2010: .262 ISO/ .598 SLG/3 4 HRs

2011: .231 ISO/. 526 SLG/ 26 HRs

2012: .207 ISO/ .510 SLG/ 22 HRs

Lucky for Gonzalez, he hits at Coors Field, and for a lineup that experienced plenty of injuries last season. Don't get me wrong, Gonzalez is a very good hitter, as he hit .303-.371-.510 with 22 HRs, 89 runs, 85 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2012. I will say I am concerned about the trend in power, and wonder if all the nagging injuries he plays with are affecting his performance at the plate. Another concern is his second half slash line of .261-.345-.404 with 5 HRs, 28 runs, 27 RBI and 9 stolen bases, all after a first half which saw him triple slash .330-.389-.578 with 17 HRs, 61 runs, 58 RBI and 11 stolen bases.

2013 Projection: I see Cargo hitting .300 with 24 HRs, 90 runs, 90 RBI and 23 stolen bases in 2013, and he should be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round in mixed leagues and first round in NL only leagues.

8. Matt Holliday, STL

Holliday is one of the most consistent hitters in baseball, and comes with little risk for fantasy owners. He also hits in a pretty good Cardinals lineup. Holliday may not hit 30+ HRs like some guys in our Top 25, but he will not hurt you in any category, with the exception of stolen bases. Over the last five years, he has average 25 HRs, 95 runs, 95 RBI and has not hit below .295 in any one year. Consistency.

2013 Projection: I see Holliday hitting .290 with .26 HRs, 90 runs, and 95 RBI in 2013, and see him being drafted in the 3rd-4th round in mixed leagues and in the 2nd round in NL only leagues.

9. Justin Upton, ARI

For some reason, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is insistent on trading Upton, but it appears he will stay in Arizona for the time being. Upton is coming off a down year where he hit .280-.355-.430 with 17 HRs, 107 runs, 67 RBI and 18 stolen bases. Those 107 runs stand out, but so does the .430 slugging percentage. He has put up good year, bad year over the last four seasons:

2009: .232 ISO/ .532 SLG

2010: .170 ISO/ .442 SLG

2011: .240 ISO/ .529 SLG

2012: .150 ISO/ .430 SLG

I see Upton putting up a very nice bounce back season in 2013, as his strikeout rate stayed relatively the same, his walk rate improved, as did his swinging strike rate, contact rate and he swung at less pitches outside the zone, so he did make some improvements at the dish, even though his numbers were down from 2011.

2013 Projection: I see Upton hitting .290-.300 with close to 30 HRs, 90 runs, 100 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013, yet he will be drafted around the 5th or 6th round in mixed leagues. I would be willing to take him as high as the 2nd round in NL only leagues, but probably see him dropping to the 3rd round. He will present plenty of value for fantasy owners in 2013.

10. Jason Heyward, ATL

Speaking of players having a bounce back season, that is exactly what Jason Heyward did in 2012. After a terrible 2011 season, Heyward hit .269-.335-.479 with 27 HRs, 93 runs, 82 RBI and 21 stolen bases last season. I think there is more power in his bat as well, as he is only 23 years old. His ground ball rate, which we heard a lot about last offseason, improved from 54% in 2011 to 44% in 2012. As a result, his fly ball rate improved from 33% to just under 37% last season, so his shoulder issues appear to be behind him. He should be able to put up several 30 home run, 20 stolen base season over the next 4-5 years, in my opinion, and fantasy owners should not be afraid to target him early in drafts.

2013 Projection: I see Heyward hitting .280 with 30 HRs, 90 runs, 95 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013. He will probably be drafted around the 4th round in mixed leagues, and offers profit to fantasy owners if he falls below the 4th round. He should be drafted as early as the 1st round in NL only leagues, but is more likely taken in the 2nd round.

11. Adam Jones, BAL

Jones had a breakout season in 2012, hitting .287-.334-.505 with 32 HRs, 103 runs, 82 RBI and 16 stolen bases last year. The jump from 25 home runs in 2011 to 32 last season was not a result of him hitting more fly balls, as his FB% actually dropped slightly from 33% in 2011 to 32.6% last season. His HR/FB rate bumped up a bit, from 16.7% to18.8%, so he could put up another 30 home run season in 2013. He hits in a hitters park and is just 27 years old, so he is entering his peak years as a hitter. He doesn't strike out much (18.1%), but could stand to walk more (4.9%). If he can improve his BB% and OBP, there is room for more stolen base opportunities.

2013 Projection: I see Jones having a repeat of his 2012 season, hitting around .285 with 30 HRs, 95 runs, 90 RBI and 15-20 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted around the 3rd-4th round in mixed leagues and and in the 2nd round in AL only leagues.

12. Bryce Harper, WAS

I think Harper is poised to put up a monster season in 2013. As a 19 year old rookie in 2012, Harper hit .270-.340-.477 with 22 HRs, 98 runs, 59 RBI and 18 stolen bases in 139 games. His plate discipline is extraordinary for such a young hitter, as he struck out just 20.1% of his plate appearances, while walking 9.4% of the time. As he ages, he will hit more balls in the air than he did in 2012 (32.9%), resulting in more home runs. He could hit 30 home runs in 2013 and it would not surprise me.

2013 Projection: I see Harper hitting .280 with 28 HRs, 110 runs, 85 RBI and 25 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted around the 3rd round in mixed leagues, but probably won't be, so he offers fantasy owners plenty of value on draft day. I would not be surprised to see him drafted in the first round of NL only leagues, and I may do just that in my big money NL only redraft league next season. Yeah, I like him.

13. Allen Craig, STL

Craig is another guy I am targeting in my NL only draft next season. Craig hit .307-.354-.522 with 22 HRs, 76 runs and 92 RBI in just 119 games last season. He makes plenty of contact, as he doesn't strike out much for a power hitter (17.3%) but could stand to take a few more walks (7.2%). With a bump in his fly ball rate fro, 33.3% to around 36-37%, along with 145-150 games of at bats, he could easily approach a 30 HR season in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Craig hitting .300 with 30+ HRs, 90 runs, and 100 RBI in 2013. He should be drafted around the 6th round in mixed leagues and 3rd round in NL only leagues, where he will present plenty of value.

14. Jose Bautista, TOR

I am the low man on Bautista in our consensus rankings, as I see him struggling out of the gate after having wrist surgery. Wrist injuries sap hitters power, so I see his power numbers dropping in 2013. Couple that with a low batting average, albeit with a high OBP, I see Bautista disappointing some owners next season. Will he hit 40 HRs in 2013? I don't think so. Will he hit 30 HRs in 2013? I think he can. But also consider the fact that his power, as measured by ISO was in a 2 year downtrend before the wrist injury.

2013 Projection: I see Bautitsta hitting .240 with 29-32 HRs, 80 runs and 90 RBI in 2013. He will be drafted in the 3rd round in most mixed leagues, and in the 2nd round in AL only leagues.

15. Yoenis Cespedes, OAK

Cespedes is a guy I am so high on that I traded a $10 Jesus Montero and a second round pick in our minor league draft in return for a $22 Cespedes in my AL only keeper league last week. Cespedes had a very good rookie season in Oakland, hitting .292-.356-.505 with 23 HRs, 70 runs, 82 RBI and 16 stolen bases last season. For a power hitter, he struck out in just 18.9% of his plate appearances, while walking in 8% of them. He hits plenty of fly ball (39.9%), so there is room for more home runs in 2013 now that he has one full season under his belt. After hitting .250 in April and .227 in May, Cespedes followed up by hitting .343 in June, .344 in July, .293 in August and .261 in September, so he made adjustments at the plate as the season wore on. His 80% success rate on the base paths indicate he could get more stolen base opportunities in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Cespedes hitting .290 and approaching 30 HRs in 2013, with 80 runs, 90 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted around the 4th-5th round in mixed leagues and in the 3rd-4th round in AL only leagues next season.

16. Curtis Granderson, NYY

Granderson is coming off his second consecutive 40 HR season, but hit just .232-.319-.492 with 43 HRs, 102 runs, 106 RBI and 10 stolen bases. Even though the home run total increase slightly, his ISO/SLG dropped from .290/ .552 in 2011 to .260/ .492 last season. On top of that, his walk rate dropped from 12.3% to 11.0%, and his K% increased to 28.5% from 24.5% in 2011. The Grandyman is a big fly ball hitter, so he will benefit from playing 81 games at Yankee Stadium, the new Coors Field in MLB, but I see him HR/FB% dropping from the 24% level he put up in 2012. Other factors working against Granderson are his increase in swings outside the zone, drop in contact rate and increase in swinging strike rate that he experienced in 2012.

2013 Projection: I see Granderson hitting .245 with 35 HRs, 90 runs, 90 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 2013, and see him drafted around the 4th round in mixed league drafts and 2nd-3rd round in AL only leagues.

17. Jay Bruce, CIN

Bruce isn't a favorite amongst the saber guys out there as he doesn't offer value across the board, defense, base running, etc. But he is a favorite of the power whores out there, me included. Bruce has now put up two consecutive 30+ home runs seasons, while barely missing on the 100 RBI mark over the last two years. Bruce will be just 26 years old when the 2013 season begins, and I think he has a few 40 HR seasons in his bat. He is a fly ball hitter playing in a ball park that is kind to left handed hitters, so the 40 HR season is probably a decent bet, in my opinion.

2013 Projection: I see Bruce hitting .260 with 38 HRs, 90 runs, 105 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 2013. He should be drafted around the 5th round in mixed league drafts and late 2nd to early 3rd round in NL only league drafts.

18. Carlos Beltran, STL

Beltran's overall stat line for 2012 was pretty good, as he hit .269-.346-.495 with 32 HRs, 83 runs, 97 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 151 games, the most games he has played since 2008. But here is a look at his 1st half/2nd half splits:

First half: .296-.382-.542 with 20 HRs, 50 runs, 65 RBI and 8 SBs

Second half: .236-.302-.440 with 12 HRs, 33 runs, 32 RBI and 5 SBs

Certainly a big drop in performance at the plate in the second half, so owners are left to wonder if that was the beginning of the age-related decline for the soon-to-be 36 year old outfielder. HIs plate discipline stats tell a story of a hitter who is making less contact at the plate and swinging and missing more than ever before. Draft accordingly in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Beltran hitting .260 with 23 HRs, 65 runs, and 75 RBI in 2013, but the age and injury history bring plenty of risk on draft day. I could see a Beltran injury leading to a call up of top hitting prospect Oscar Taveras in 2013. Beltran should be drafted around the 8th-9th round in mixed leagues and 4th-5th round in NL only league drafts in 2013.

19. Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS

While Jason, Bret and Craig ranked Ellsbury in the mid to high teens, I ranked him at 29. The main reason for that was the injury risk he brings. Sandwiched around his 158 games played in 2011, he played a grand total of 92 games in 2010 and 2012 combined. When healthy, he can be valuable for his fantasy owners for his runs and stolen base potential, as he has stolen 39 or more bases three times in his career. His power outburst in 2011 looks like an outlier, but he could put up double digit home runs if he can stay healthy for a full season.

2013 Projection: I see Ellsbury hitting .280 with 12 HRs, 85 runs, 65 RBI and 30 stolen bases, assuming he can stay healthy for a full season. He should be drafted around the 9th-10th round in mixed leagues, and 6th-7th round in AL only leagues.

20. Michael Bourn, FA

Bourn is another guy I am lower on for the sole reason that stolen bases is a category that is plentiful on draft day, as you can draft a guy like Coco Crisp in the later rounds to provide you the speed you need, rather than drafting Bourn in the 9th-10th rounds. Plus, speed is easier to deal for later in the season than a power hitter or starting pitcher. Bourn showed off a little pop last year, hitting more home runs than he had in the previous three seasons combined. His stolen base total dropped from 61 in 2011 to 42 last season, even though he improved his walk rate to 10%. It is a little curious why his stolen base total dropped in his walk year, but his stolen base success rate (76%) was the worst of his career. Is this a sign he will not be running as much in 2013?

2013 Projection: I see Bourn hitting .280 with 90 runs scored, 50 RBI and 45-50 stolen bases assuming good health. He should be drafted around the 10th round in mixed leagues, and 5th round in NL only leagues. I participated in a 10 team, 5 x 5 NL only league draft last season where he was drafted as the 10th overall pick. Don't draft a speed only guy in the first round.

21. B.J. Upton, ATL

Upton signed a 5 year deal with the Braves this offseason to, presumably, be their center fielder. I like the move for the Braves and Upton, as I think that we could see more power from him in the coming years. Last season, he hit .246-.298-.454 with 28 HRs, 79 runs, 78 RBI and 31 stolen bases in 146 games. Even though he put up nice counting stats last season, he was less selective at the plate, walking in just 7.1% of his plate appearances, a big drop from 11.1% in 2011. His strikeout rate bumped up as well, as he swung at 5% more pitches outside the zone than in 2011, made less contact, and his swing and miss rate was the 4th worst in baseball, behind only Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis and Danny Espinosa.

2013 Projection: I see Upton's plate discipline improving in 2013, and see him hitting .250 with 26 HRs, 85 runs, 85 RBI and 30 stolen bases. He should be drafted in the 6th round in mixed leagues and around the 3rd round in NL only leagues.

22. Alex Rios, CHW

After a 2011 season which saw him triple slash .227-.265-.348, Rios had a very nice bounce back season in 2012, hitting .304-.334-.516 with 25 HRs, 93 runs, 91 RBI and 23 stolen bases. After three solid seasons from 2006-2008, he has alternated bad years with good years. What fantasy owners have to figure out is whether he will have another bad year in 2013, as he had a good year in 2012. His good years have been BABIP driven with a BABIP over .300 in each year.

2013 Projection: I see Rios hitting .280 with 23 HRs, 80 runs, 85 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013 and see him drafted in the 7th round in mixed leagues and 4th round in AL only leagues.

23. Alex Gordon, KC

I was a fan of Gordon's heading into the 2012 season, as I thought he could put up a repeat of his breakout 2011 season, where he hit .303-.376-.502 with 23 HRs, 101 runs, 87 RBI and 17 stolen bases. Well, he did not hit for home run power, but he did lead the majors with 51 doubles last season, hitting .294-.368-.455 with 14 HRs, 93 runs, 72 RBI and 10 stolen bases. The drop in home runs can be attributed to a drop in his fly ball rate from 38.5% to 32.7% and to a drop in HR/FB% from 12.6% to 8.5%. His 2012 fly ball rate and HR/FB% were the lowest of his career, so a bounce in fly balls and home runs is very possible in 2013.70

2013 Projection: I see Gordon hitting .300 with 20+ HRs, 100 runs, 70 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 2013, and should offer plenty of value on draft day. I see him being drafted in the 8th-10th rounds in mixed leagues, and 6th round in AL only leagues.

24. Desmond Jennings, TB

I own Jennings in my AL only keeping league, sp that explains why I am so high on him in our rankings. Maybe I am too high on him, but he has the talent to put up double digit home runs and 40 stolen bases if all goes right for him. Last year, Jennings struggled in his first full season in the big leagues, hitting .246-.314-.388 with 13 HRs, 85 runs, 47 RBI and 31 stolen bases. He would benefit from hitting more balls on the ground than in the air, utilizing his speed more. His success rate on the base paths was elite, as he was thrown out just two times all season.

2013 Projection: I see Jennings showing some improvements at the plate in 2013, hitting .265 with 15 HRs, 95 runs, 50 RBI and 40 stolen bases. He should be drafted around the 11th-12th rounds in mixed league drafts and the 6th round in AL only league drafts.

25. Austin Jackson, DET

Jackson had a breakout season in 2012, hitting .300-.377-.479 with 16 HRs, 103 runs, 66 RBI and 12 stolen bases. His breakout was built on a an extremely high .371 BABIP, so it remains to be seen if he can duplicate that effort next season. Jackson made improvements in his plate discipline, as he lowered how often he swung at balls outside the zone, made more contact and reduced how often he swung and missed as well. Even though he was on base more in 2012, his stolen base total dropped from 22 to 12 last season, and when he did attempt to steal, he got thrown out (9) almost as often as he was successful (12).

2013 Projection: I see Jackson hitting .285 with 10 HRs, 100 runs, 60 RBI and 20 stolen bases in 2013, and he should be drafted in the 9th-10th rounds in mixed leagues and 6th-7th rounds in AL only leagues

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Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.