Fake Teams 2013 Consensus First Base Rankings: Part 2

On Monday, I published Part 1 of our 2013 Consensus First Base Rankings, so today, I will finish with up Part 2 of our Top 25 first baseman for 2013. Before I get to the player profiles, here are the individual rankings, as well as the consensus first base rankings for 2013.

Our consensus first base rankings were calculated by assigning 25 points for a first place vote, 24 points for a second place vote and so on. There's also a 2-point bonus for appearing on a list, which gives more weight (in close scenarios) to players who appeared on more of our lists.

Here is another look at our Consensus 2013 First Base Rankings, followed by player profiles for first baseman ranked 14-25:

Rank	Player	Team	Ray	Bret	Jason	Craig	Score
1	Joey Votto	CIN	2	2	2	1	105
2	Albert Pujols	LAA	4	1	1	3	103
3	Prince Fielder	DET	1	3	3	4	101
4	Edwin Encarnacion	TOR	6	4	5	2	95
5	Adrian Gonzalez	LAD	3	5	4	6	94
6	Allen Craig	STL	5	6	7	11	83
7	Buster Posey	SF	8	7	9	5	83
8	Billy Butler	KC	7	9	8	9	79
9	Paul Goldschmidt	ARZ	9	8	11	10	74
10	Paul Konerko	CHW	14	18	6	8	66
11	Eric Hosmer	KC	11	11	13	16	61
12	Joe Mauer	MIN	15	14	20	7	56
13	Mark Teixeira	NYY	10	10	19	18	55
14	Adam LaRoche	WSH	19	21	10	13	49
15	Adam Dunn	CHW	22	15	15	12	48
16	Anthony Rizzo	CHC	21	13	14	17	47
17	Corey Hart	MLW	13	23	17	14	45
18	Freddie Freeman	ATL	18	12	12	NR	42
19	Ike Davis	NYM	12	16	22	24	38
20	Ryan Howard	PHI	20	19	16	25	32
21	Carlos Santana	CLE	17	22	18	NR	27
22	Chris Davis	BAL	24	25	23	15	25
23	Justin Morneau	MIN	NR	17	24	22	21
24	Brandon Belt	SF	NR	20	25	20	19
25	Mark Trumbo	LAA	16	NR	21	NR	19

Player Profiles for first baseman ranked 14-25 in our 2013 Consensus First Base Rankings:

14. Adam LaRoche, FA

Laroche was probably the Nationals team MVP in 2012, picking the right year to have his best season at the plate, his walk year. He is a free agent this offseason, but the Nationals are still showing interest in him, however lukewarm it is. Laroche hit .271-.343-.510 with 33 HRs, 76 runs and 100 RBI in 154 games last season, and his 69 extra base hits were his most since his 71 XBH in 2006 while with the Braves. He turned 32 years of age a few weeks ago, and because of that, and the fact that he can be very streaky hitter, I see him struggling to repeat his 2012 performance. If he signs with the Rangers, he could easily repeat.

2013 Projection: I expect Laroche to hit .260 with 25 HRs, 75 runs and 85 RBI in 2013.

15. Adam Dunn, CHW

Dunn appeared to be done after the 2011 season, as he hit .159-.292-.277 with 11 HRs, 36 runs and 42 RBI in 122 games, but he rebounded in 2012, showing that he still had a 40 home run year in him. Dunn hit just .204-.333-.468 with 41 HRs, 87 runs and 96 RBI in 151 games last season, and it is quite obvious he is not someone who will help you in the batting average category. His BA will actually hurt you pretty bad, especially if he gets over 500 at bats again. The power is nice, but he doesn't even help those of you in OBP leagues anymore, as his OBP has dropped from .398 in 2009 to just .333 last season.

2013 Projection: I project Dunn to hit .205 with 31 HRs 75 runs and 85 RBI in 2013.

16. Anthony Rizzo, CHC

Rizzo is one of a few first baseman on this list who could vault into the top 10 by the end of the 2013 season. In 337 at bats last season, he hit .285-.342-.463 with 15 HRs, 44 runs and 48 RBI, but struggled to hit left handers. Rizzo hit just .208-.243-.356 with 4 HRs and 17 RBI in just over 100 at bats vs. lefties. On the other hand, he crushes righties to the tune of .318-.383-.508 with 11 HRs and 31 RBI in 236 at bats. We know he can hit for power, and it helps that he doesn't strike out much for a power hitter, as he struck out in just 16.8% of his plate appearance in 2012.

2013 Projection: Paul Rice wrote about Rizzo on Monday afternoon here, and I tend to agree with him. I can see Rizzo hitting .270-.275 with 28 HRs and 85 RBI in 2013.

17. Corey Hart, MIL

I was the high man on Hart among the four of us who participated in the consensus rankings, as I feel that Hart won't hurt you in any one category. Actually, he is solid in four out of the five categories in 5 x 5 leagues. In 2012, Hart hit .270-.334-.507 with 30 HRs, 91 runs, 85 RBI and 5 stolen bases. Call me crazy, but his 2012 season was very comparable to Albert Pujol's 2012 season, and Hart came much cheaper than Pujols in 2012. And probably will come much cheaper again in 2013. Hart has averaged 29 HRs and 83 RBI over the last three seasons, and his .270 batting average, while respectable, was his lowest since 2009.

2013 Projection: I see Hart hitting .275 with 30 HRs and 90 RBI in 2013.

18. Freddie Freeman, ATL

Craig was the low guy on Freeman in our consensus rankings, and I was second lowest. Freeman hit .259-.340-.456 with 23 HRs, 91 runs and 94 RBI in 2012, as his walk rate and strikeout rate both improved, and his ISO jumped 30 points from .166 to .196. So Freeman showed improvement at the plate, but how does a hitter rank fourth in line drive rate (26.0%) and hit just .259? The Braves will have a new leadoff hitter with Michael Bourn leaving via free agency, and Chipper Jones has retired, so Freeman's numbers may take a bit of a hit in 2013. I also feel that the guys ranked ahead of him, and few of the guys ranked behind him will probably hit for more power than Freeman in 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Freeman hitting .265 with 21 HRs and 85 RBI in 2013.

19. Ike Davis, NYM

I like power hitters, and Ike Davis is a power hitter. As you can see from where I ranked him, I think Davis can be a top 12 fantasy first baseman in 2013. Davis hit just .227-.308-.462 with 32 HRs, 66 runs and 90 RBI in 156 games in 2012, but he struggled in the first two months of the season, recovering from what many thought was valley fever. Davis hit just .185 with 3 HRs and 8 RBI in April, and .154 with 2 HRs and 13 RBI in May, so his season-ending numbers could have been much better had he been healthy when the season began. In the final four months of the season, Davis hit 27 HRs and drove in 69 runs, so, when healthy, Davis can be a legitimate threat to hit 35+ HRs and drive in 100 runs in 2013. Like many lefty power hitters, Davis struggles against left handed pitching, so any improvement vs lefties will just boost his stats even more.

2013 Projection: I see Davis improving on his 2012 performance, hitting .250 with 36 HRs and 95 RBI in 2013.

20. Ryan Howard, PHI

Howard missed the first three months of the 2012 season, and struggled when he did return to the Phillies lineup. He hit just .227-.295-.423 with 14 HRs, 28 runs and 56 RBI in 71 games in 2012, and was a strikeout machine as he struck out in just under 34% of his plate appearances. Howard continues to struggle to hit left handed pitching, as he hit just .173 with a 45-5 strikeout to walk rate in 106 plate appearance vs lefties in 2012. One has to wonder if the Phillies will start using prospect Darren Ruf as his platoon partner at first base in 2013.

2013 Projection: Howard is a streaky hitter, and can drive in runs in bunches, so I see him hitting .230 with 33 HRs and 90 RBI in 2013.

21. Carlos Santana, CLE

I wrote about Carlos Santana in this article last week.

22. Chris Davis, BAL

Davis came out of nowhere to hit .270-.326-.501 with 33 HRs, 75 runs and 85 RBI in 139 games last season. He probably went un-drafted in all but AL only leagues, and may have trouble repeating his 2012 season, as he is prone to strike out a bit. Davis struck out in 30% of his plate appearances last season, so his swing and miss tendencies could hinder him at the plate n 2013.

2013 Projection: I see Davis hitting .260 with 27 HRs and 80 RBI.

23. Justin Morneau, MIN

Morneau returned from his concussion syndrome to have a decent year at the plate in 2012, hitting .267-.333-.440 with 19 HRs, 63 runs and 77 RBI in 134 games. Morneau will have to even out his performance at the plate in 2013, as he hit .236 or lower in three of six months last season, but did hit over .300 in July and August, so there is hope he can return to being the Justin Morneau of old in 2013.

2013 Projection: I expect him to hit .275 with 27 HRs and 90 RBI in 2013.

24. Brandon Belt, SFG

Will Bruce Bochy finally allow Belt to play everyday for a full season in 2013? I think he will. Belt hit .275-.360-.421 with 7 HRs, 47 runs, 56 RBI and 12 stolen bases in 14 attempts in 2013. The question I have is will he hit for more power next season, as 7 home runs in 472 plate appearances is not what you want to see out of your first baseman in 2013. Looking at his monthly stats, you can see he has plenty of room for improvement, as he hit his 7 home runs in just two of the season's six months, so he could easily double, or triple, his home run output from 2012 with regular playing time.

2013 Projection: I see Belt hitting .285 with 17 HRs, 70 runs and 80 RBI in 2013.

25. Mark Trumbo, LAA

I was the high man on Trumbo in our consensus rankings, as I ranked him as my #16 fantasy first baseman for 2013. The power is the reason for the high ranking, as Trumbo followed his 29 HR output in 2011 by hitting 32 bombs in 2012. Like many power hitters, Trumbo strikes out quite a bit (26.1%), and could benefit by taking a few more free passes. In 144 games in 2012, Trumbo hit .268-.317-.491 with 32 HRs, 66 runs and 95 RBI.

2013 Projection: I see more of the same from Trumbo in 2013, as I see him hitting .260 with 30 HRs and 85 RBI with a chance for a bit of upside to the home run total.

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