Fake Teams Consensus Fantasy Prospect Rankings: Top 10 First Basemen

With each week being dedicated to our consensus rankings at a particular position, the prospect staff at Fake Teams will also be providing position-specific coverage during these weeks. This will include a pair of prospect profiles, as well as a comparison post between two similar prospects at the position. And of course, we will be releasing our top 20 prospects at the position. This differs slightly from what we did last year, as these rankings are for the long term, rather than providing a separate list for the upcoming season only.

Bret Sayre, Craig Goldstein, and I have discussed the ranking of each player on these lists, and have come to a determination on each them of where they belong on the list. There are a number of groupings where, if you believe a prospect should move up or down a slot, we would probably not disagree. Prospect rankings remain a picture of what we see based on the information available at that moment in time, and are likely to change as the offseason progresses. Also note that these rankings are for fantasy purposes, so while we take a players' position into account, we only account for their defense in terms really of their ability to stay at the position long term.

With first base we are presented with two very distinct challenges that we really don't have with other positions. First, prospects that start their professional careers at first base are extremely rare, and Craig will get into how first base prospects are made later in the week. Second, we have to look at players at other positions who we feel are likely to have to move in the long term, which means evaluating their defense and whether they can continue at their current positions.

The top 10 prospects will be released on Tuesday of each week, and prospects 11-20 will be released on Thursday. With that, our top 10 first base prospects:

1. Jonathan Singleton (HOU) (Profile from MLKT Series)

Estimated ETA: Late 2013

2. Miguel Sano (MIN)

Sano's power potential is obviously huge, as he hit 28 home runs this year in the Midwest League. The question really with Sano is whether or not he can realistically be expected to stay away from 1B long term. While he continues to play 3B for the Twins right now, there doesn't seem to be a consensus that he can reasonably be expected to do so by the time he reaches the Majors.

Estimated ETA: Late 2015/Early 2016

* If Mike Olt ends up at 1B to start the season, he would be at #3 right now behind Singleton and Sano.

3. Dan Vogelbach (CHC) (Profile from MLKT Series)

Estimated ETA: Late 2015/Early 2016

4. Matt Adams (STL)

Every stop Adams has played at, he has continued to hit. He seems like he could be the long-term answer for the Cardinals at 1B, but it seems that Allen Craig is more likely to take over there as of right now. Adams could be a 15-20 home run bat in the Majors with a high batting average if he is given a full time job.

Estimated ETA: 2013

5. C.J. Cron (LAA) (Profile from MLKT Series)

Estimated ETA: 2015

6. Ronald Guzman (TEX)

Guzman is the definition of a long-term prospect at this point. Guzman debuted in the Arizona Rookie League this year, hitting .321/.374/.434 as a 17 year old. Based on scouting reports I have read, it sounds like Guzman will more than hit enough to make up the difference in defensive value, with the potential for above average power in the long term. He will be just 18 years old for all of the 2013 season, and it would not surprise me if the Rangers' sent him to a full season league.

Estimated ETA: 2016-2017

7. Miles Head (OAK)

I was able to see the Athletics' prospect back in May, and while the A's may continue to run him out at 3B, it would be a pretty large shock if he could stay there in the long term. The bat does appear to be legitimate though, and potentially could play at 1B in the long term. It will be interesting to watch him as he is likely to start at AA this year, and out of the California League's ridiculous offensive environment.

Estimated ETA: Late 2013/2014

8. Hunter Morris (MIL)

Morris had a great year at AA Huntsville this year, hitting .303/.357/.563 with 28 home runs. Morris is likely the long-term answer for the Brewers at the position, as he should continue to hit for power and provide at least a solid batting average. How well that will end up translating for fantasy purposes remains to be seen given his position, but he should definitely be watched as he could be in Milwaukee by season's end.

Estimated ETA: Late 2013/2014

9. Jesus Aguilar (CLE) (Profile from MLKT Series)

Estimated ETA: 2014

10. Travis Harrison (MIN)

Drafted as a third baseman, it's really hard to see how Harrison can stick there in the long term. Do you have any idea just how hard it actually is to have a fielding percentage of .832? Literally he was making an error in almost 1 of every 5 plays. He had a solid performance at the plate, hitting .301/.383/.461 with 5 home runs in his 60 games this year, but unless something drastically changes, I'd be very surprised if he can stay at 3B.

Estimated ETA: 2015