Here are your fantasy baseball links for today, September 9:
Kinsler's Launch Angle | Baseball Analytics
grumble grumble Fly Ball Percentage grumble grumble Pop-ups grumble grumble Ian Kinsler is just good.
Somehow, Moscoso has only given up home runs on 5.4% of his fly balls, while the league average is 9-10% year to year. Even with that favorable rate, he's given up .9 home runs per nine innings. He's given up 204 fly balls this year. If 9% of those had left the yard, he'd have 18 home runs on his ledger, not 11. That would be a 1.47 HR/9 rate, which would be fourth-worst in baseball (after Lilly, Lewis and Arroyo). Give him 1.5 runs allowed per extra home run, and his ERA would be 4.24 right now.
No one wanted Beachy, whose fastball averages 92 miles an hour, whose change-up breaks almost ten inches, and who will almost certainly start a playoff game for the Braves. They were lucky to get him, and then they used the developmental talents of the organization to develop him. Think of all the first-round busts at whom teams have thrown hundreds of millions of dollars. Then think of Brandon Beachy, casually arriving on the scene and setting rookie records after being ignored 1,500 times in one draft. Even for baseball, it's sort of hard to believe.
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Pretty much everything I told you in the beginning of the year about trusting your big guns and not trusting the wayward sons-of-bees goes out the window this time of year. If you’re battling for pitching points or in the H2H playoffs, you need to take some chances I wouldn’t necessarily take in April. Suddenly, Jeff Francis looks ownable and John Lannan doesn’t look like John Lannan, but looks like a guy whose home ERA is under 3.
The Dodgers are clearly keen on utilizing Gordon’s speed, as well they should be, and he should get plenty of chances to steal from the leadoff position. While he’ll have fewer opportunities as his on-base percentage rejoins reality, it seems likely that Gordon will still rack up a decent total for the rest of the month, provided he continues to get the green light.
This is one of your sleeper sources for power in the month of September. Francisco is the Reds third baseman of the future and he can put a definite charge behind the ball when he connects. Francisco had 20+ HR’s in each season between 2007 – 2009. Last year he had 18 and before being called up this season he was at 15.
Since being called up in mid-July, the switch-hitting Fowler has produced closer to the player he should've been expected to be; some power, getting on-base at a good clip, and racking up a decent number of steals. Instead of playing roulette with no-power guys like Juan Pierre and Rajai Davis, Fowler is a nice add because of his home park and ability to park the ball every once in awhile.
If you’ve had Cabrera on your roster all season long you cannot be upset at his performance, not in the least. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t be disappointed by his work over the past month. Cabrera is hitting a sickly .185 over his last 95 at-bats, and though he has knocked in 16 runs, the guy has scored only five times. He isn’t producing hits, isn’t scoring runs, and has stopped stealing bases. Do you dare go in another direction for the final three weeks of the regular season?
Although Pomeranz has just a handful of innings in Double-A, he's done enough this year to make me quite optimistic about his future, and I can understand why the Rockies want to take an immediate look at him. Assuming he stays healthy and avoids unexpected command lapses, he profiles as a number two starter at least. If his changeup develops to its maximum potential, he can be a genuine number one rotation anchor in the mode of Cliff Lee or Clayton Kershaw.
If last night was representative of his command, Hendriks will be a very consistent pitcher. A good paint-by-numbers Twins pitcher, by which I mean location is emphasized over raw stuff.
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Brett Pill, Chris Schwinden, Padres' Double-A arms | KFFL.com
Do Aubrey Huff and Brandon Belt have 1B company? Plus, Chris Schwinden's debut, and the outlook for Joseph Wieland and Robert Erlin.
Prospectus Perspective: The New Jack Zoo Review | Baseball Prospectus
A brief review of the reign of Jack Zduriencik, also known as The Man Who Doesn't Know How to Google Things.
The BP Broadside: Houston's Last Stand in the Central? | Baseball Prospectus
More realignment talk, this time from the perspective of the Astros.