My apologies for not having a post up yesterday. I haven't been feeling well and Ray graciously gave me a day off. You don't care about that though, so here are your fantasy baseball links for today:
Last year I studied previous seasons to see what kind of predictive value home run distances have. I found that the hitters who hit a high percentage of "Just Enough" home runs (league average from 2006 was 27%, no updated data available) saw their HR/FB ratios decline by 21% the following year, versus 11% for the hitters who had hit the lowest percentage of Just Enough home runs.
It is to say, alternatively, that a transaction worth Z today is more valuable than a transaction worth Z in the future; that trading for Prince Fielder today is more valuable than doing so in two weeks, and that bidding on Hosmer now is better than bidding the same amount on Anthony Rizzo in the future, even if you think both players are equally valued. So what does this all mean? It means that shelling out FAAB money on Hosmer in the beginning of May is more valuable than shelling out a similar sum on Rizzo in the beginning of June. The season is only 162 games long, and every day you wait, your opportunity cost is approximately 0.6 percent of potential value.
The Knurve To Say: June 20th, 2011 | COSFBA
2010 Curtis Granderson = 2011 Carl Crawford ?
2011 RAW Pitcher Ratings: First Batch | Fantasy Baseball 365
Could be a useful tool, but don't take it as gospel.
Follow the jump for more of the latest fantasy baseball news and analysis from around the web.
You’re not going to get any pop out of Theriot at all (.064 ISO) but he usually makes up for that with stolen bases (20+ in each of the last four years). He only has four steals (in seven chances, yuck) this year, but ZiPS still projects him to pick up another nine while batting a respectable .275 with a .332 OBP the rest of the way.
Nelson may never end up giving you counting stats but he should hit for a high average thanks to a low strikeout rate. Depending on how the Rockies decide to use him, it’s very possible that Nelson could have 2B/3B eligibility sometime this week, further increasing his value.
If he strikes out less than ZiPs projects, and continues to exhibit the same power he’s always shown, he’ll be more likely to hit around .275 with another 12-15 home runs. That would fit with his entire major league resume, and give even skeptical owners a reason to feel bullish about Matt Joyce.
If his current ZiPS projections hold true and he finishes the season hitting .285 with 20 HR and 71 RBI and 8 steals are those the stats of a top 30 outfielder? And those numbers could be generous depending on the severity of his shoulder issue.
The biggest factor appears to be Lester's overall pitch location. Working high to the catcher's glove hand gave batters trouble. Now that he's working more over the center of the plate opponents can make better contact, and they can drive the ball out of the park more often.
Wearing a cast for 4-6 weeks is not good for the soft tissue in the wrist and hand, to say he will be stiff when the cast is removed is an understatement. Pujols will need to rehab vigorously once the cast is removed to regain the lost range of motion and strength in the wrist and hand. Once he regains his mobility, then he’ll be cleared to begin baseball activities. He will almost certainly need a few games in the minors to test it out, and such a long layoff will undoubtedly mess up his timing at the plate as well. With the injury occurring to his left arm, the bottom hand on the bat, it may even detract from his power a bit until he feels comfortable. Pujols has such tremendous power it might not affect him too much, but there will be a hangover effect here as Pujols’ wrist adjusts to the rigors of hitting.
Band-Aid for Albert Pujols | LestersLegends.com
Emergency replacements for Pujols owners.
The Twins don't want to bring up Gibson unless he's is there to stay, nor do they want him to work out of the pen as a reliever. Once he's here, the general consensus is that he should be a long-term number two or three starter, which would slot in very nicely with a pitching rotation fronted by Baker and a revitalized Francisco Liriano.
Last season Cozart hit .255/.310/.416 with 17 home runs and 30 stolen bases. He’s taken a large step up in the batting average category this year while cutting back some on his strikeouts and maintaining solid home run pop for a middle infielder. His stolen base totals are down a bit this year, not entirely surprising considering Baseball America describes him as only having average speed and credits his stolen base success on his base running acumen.