Today is June 13, the 8th anniversary of Roger Clemens' 4,000th strikeout and 300th win. On this day in 1905, Christy Mathewson of the New York Giants pitched a no-hitter that would have been a perfect game if not for two errors by shortstop Bill Dahlen. Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown pitched no-hit ball for 8 innings for the opposing Chicago Cubs. Today is the 45th anniversary of Miranda v. Arizona. Happy birthday to Rivers Cuomo (1970) and Steve-O (1974). Yesterday, the Mavericks won the NBA Championship. (Seriously, click the link. You're welcome.) Here are your fantasy baseball links for today:
Potential Starting Pitcher K/9 Risers Through the Lens of SwStk% Update | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball
I'm buying Carrasco as a second-half sleeper.
Put another way, if a stat stabilizes at 100 PA and we have 100 PA of data for a player, we'd use a 50/50 split of the player's actual data and the league average (or whatever mean we choose) to estimate his true talent for that stat. The more data we observe for a player, the less league average we use.
Your League Probably Sucks... | COSFBA
Apparently the number of deadbeat owners is somewhere around 7.7%.
Trolling the Wire: Week 11 Monday-Friday | Baseball By Paul
Fantasy Baseball Diamond Market: Ben Revere, more | KFFL.com
Mike Moustakas up, Ben Revere playing more and Lucas Duda's new opportunity?
Follow the jump for more of the latest fantasy baseball news and analysis from around the web.
This increase in Swing% has lead to an increase in both O-Swing% (pitches outside the zone) and Z-Swing% (pitches inside the zone), yet his contact rate has remained virtually unchanged. That means his percentage of swinging strikes must be increased; and it is at an all time high of 7.9%. I’m hoping that the increase we’ve seen in Damon’s walk rate will help curb some of those numbers.
If Gordon doesn't develop an ability to consistently drive the ball his speed may well be wasted. Hitting more line drives will allow Gordon to increase his extra-base hits, namely triples, using that speed. Right now, Gordon's wOBA is heavily affected by singles (58%), but only 11% by doubles and 4% by triples.
Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox is off to a career year, increasing both his ability to get on base and his power over his career averages. Some of his statistics indicate he is stronger. The possibility exists that his year of rehabilitating his broken ribs turned him into a better hitter.
Regression for Joyce can be expected to come in the form of correction to his batting average. His batted ball data supports a higher average than in previous seasons as he is stroking more line drives, clearing the fence on a higher percentage of his flyballs, and popping the ball up much less frequently than he had in 2008 and 2010. Unfortunately, these positives still don’t make a .384 BABIP sustainable.
Even if you buy into a second-half power surge (ZIPS ROS only calls for Ramirez to hit 10 more home runs), Ramirez’s injury history in recent seasons has to be a cause for concern.
Given his rare 20/20 upside, promising home park, xBABIP, and brand name, it is hard to sell Rios, let alone at a substantial discount. What you get in return will hardly match the price, or contain the upside, you probably paid for with Alex Rios this year. Still, economics tells us the smart investor ignores sunk costs, and it's hardly likely Rios' reaches that level either.
I believe Morneau will one day hit like his old self, but I don't think it will be in 2011. If the Twins don't make up ground quickly, I would not be surprised to see an extended DL stint for Morneau. Even if he does manage to stay in the lineup all year, without time to rest his injuries, I wouldn't expect him to hit. His ZiPS rest of season projection calls for solid production the rest of the way, but that projection doesn't take into account current injuries and also gives significant weight to his pre-concussion abilities. I expect Morneau to significantly underperform his ZiPS projection in every category.
If I were a gambler, I'd bet his repertoire tweaks a bit over the next few starts and we'll see a little uptick in the strikeouts -- but his velocity does warrant monitoring. If I'm an Oswalt owner, I'd keep running him out there until the red flags are so insurmountable that it looks like Tienanmen Square.
During the 2010 season 22% of Josh Beckett's called third strikes were curveballs. In 2011 the curveball is responsible for 35% of Beckett's called third strikes.
In 21 innings pitched since joining the Royals, three starts and one relief appearance, he has been impressive. Command and control have historically been trouble at times for Paulino, but since changing uniforms he has had no such problems with a pristine 1.71 BB/9. He has seen his strikeout rate take a step back with the improved walk rate, but it is still serviceable at 6.86 K/9, and holds upside thanks to his strikeout stuff and better than league average swinging strike rate.
His strikeout rate is at 8.42, down slightly from a career mark of 8.95. While his move to the AL certainly helps to generate a few less Ks, there is a few numbers that are slightly worrisome. He’s currently throwing his fastball a career low 62.9% of the time and, if that wasn’t enough, he’s seen a consistent dip in velocity.
Easing Brandon Lyon back into the ninth inning is like easing a [insert large object] into a [insert human orifice].
Miller works with a 94-98 MPH fastball. His curveball is already plus and his changeup has rapidly improved, giving him three strong pitches. He has mound presence beyond his years and is a pitcher, not a thrower. His mechanics are clean, repeatable, and consistent, which should help him stay healthy. He has all the physical and mental attributes of a number one starter, and we should see him in the majors sometime next year. Barring an injury or unlikely collapse in Double-A, Miller is a clear Grade A prospect.
Fantasy Baseball Player Prospecting: Julio Teheran, Mike Moustakas | KFFL.com
Mike Moustakas' arrival sending the fantasy world in a tizzy, but many forgetting about Julio Teheran for 2011.
I Traded Bryce Harper And You Can Too! | Roto Hardball
I hope the Bryce Harper owner in my league reads this.
MLB: How realignment in Major League Baseball would look | ESPN
There's been a lot of ink spilled about realignment the last few days. This link is behind a paywall, but let me just say this: Unless the AL and NL standardize the DH rule (one way or another), placing 15 teams in each league will never work. But it's not like the DH is a contentious subject, right?
Dallas won the title, Miami didn’t lose it | ProBasketballTalk
I'm going to celebrate with one self-serving article. Sue me.