Adam Lind tantalized fantasy owners with a terrific 2009. At only 27 we thought he would be a top power hitter entering his prime but instead he responded with a .237 AVG and 23 HR, or to Blue Jays fans, The Lindenburg Disaster. Many enthusiastic Lind owners abandoned airship. The Hindenburg disaster spelled the end to the Airship industry but luckily for Lind his stock is tied to performance rather than public opinion. Continue reading after the jump to find out why you may want to find a way to acquire Adam Lind.
In 2009 Adam Lind was one of 4 hitters with an ISO above.250 while striking out less than 20% of the time. It's a hard thing to do with 5 or less players doing it most years. He failed to repeat in 2010 and his stock plummeted.
Lind moved through the minors quickly due to his ability to hit for power while avoiding the strikeout so there is hope he can correct his approach at the plate. When he wasn't getting the results he wanted to start 2010 he began to press and chased pitches leading to a nearly 7% jump in strikeout percentage due in large part to a sharp increase in chasing pitches out of the zone. He still chases pitches he shouldn't be chasing but he has shown improvement in his approach compared to last year and has been putting a sting into the ball when he makes contact.
Based on his career line drive and strikeout rates he is a pretty safe bet for AVG, no matter what last year's .237 tells you. If he can bring his K% back down around 20% he should hit .270+. The K% will dictate his AVG but it would take a combo of bad luck and continued struggles making contact to hit sub .240 again.
The .257 ISO from 09 is going to be tough to repeat but it's not absurd to think he can top .200. A .200 ISO gives him a shot at 30 HR and with a .270+ AVG in the Blue Jays lineup that should mean 180+ R/RBI
You don't want to go overboard acquiring Lind. If the other owner is asking too much then walk away but odds are they won't be asking a lot for him anyway and if you play your cards right he could give your more than what you give up. Lind is going to be cheaper now compared to in 3 months. He has a history that would point to him being much better than he showed last year making now the time to go after him. I would feel comfortable having him on my team if I was ok with .265/27/80/90 with a chance for more if he can work his way back to previous K/BB levels. See what the Lind owner wants for him and go from there.