This article was written by Humbled Fan
About a month ago I entered an online give-away for the Tron blu-ray. I haven't seen Tron, and I wasn't highly anticipating it. But this was a free blu-ray copy of a movie. That's all I really cared about and I would definitely give Tron a shot if it was for free on blu-ray. I would probably give Maid in Manhattan a shot if somebody gave it to me for free.
But then a snowball effect occured. I started putting my name in for dozens of contests. Golfing trips to Ireland. Years supply of cheese. Expensive handbags. I didn't care, I just wanted to win something.
So far, I have won nothing. Except for hundreds of SPAM emails and a few unwanted text messages that I had to reply "STOP" to. It hasn't been my lucky month. And it hasn't been lucky for these guys either.
Yesterday I looked at the luckiest hitters thus far. As per request, here are the guys on the opposite spectrum. The guys that can't get any of their balls in play to fall for a base hit. They won't be winning an Ipad2 anytime soon. I guess they'll just have to use a few minutes salary to pay for it.
1. Jorge Posada, .081
Jorge has by far the worst BABIP in the majors. It's more than 50% lower than the #2 guy. Posada is one of the few players left in the league that was born before the DH rule was adopted by the American League, so maybe that's why he hasn't taken so kindly to it and why the baseball Gods haven't taken so kindly to him.
BABIP doesn't take strikeouts, walks, or home runs into account. And so far most of what Posada has done has fallen into those three true outcomes. His 30.6% strikeout rate is the highest of his very long career. Yet, he's smashed 6 HR and has a career high .290 ISO.
Through 62 AB's, Posada has 6 HR, 3 singles, 0 doubles, and 0 triples. He's also walked 8 times. What it all adds up to is a .145 average and an ugly .292 wOBA.
There's no telling what will become of Posada this year because of his age and his new "position" but most likely he is not the next Mark Reynolds. If you only care about home runs, he might be your guy.
2. Angel Pagan, .164
Blame the Pagan Gods? *rimshot*
Pagan was my dude last year. He was every statheads dude. Defensive whiz in center, and over 1009 PA's between 2009-2010 he hit .296/.344/.448 with 52 SB's and a 113 OPS+. Not bad at all. Carlos Who? Oh yeah, Carlos Beltran. My bad, he's a much better player.
Still, Pagan was very good and very underrated. This season? .159/.259/.246, 1 HR, 4 SB.
What's positive is that he's walking more and striking out less. What sucks is a three-year downward trend in power and less stolen bases than you might have expected after nabbing 37 last year. However, his BABIP hasn't helped.
He's been around a .340 BABIP guy the last two years and its at .164 right now. ZiPS expects a rebound of .264/.318/.405 and 19 SB's for the rest of season. I tend to be a little more optimistic than that. He could be a good stolen base addition that won't kill you in batting average, and at a very low price.
3. Chone Figgins, .173
I am a Mariners fan and I am scared to write about Chone Figgins. This is a family-oriented site afterall. Let's just say frustrations like this haven't arisen over a free agent signing since... well.. the last big free agent signing by the Mariners. Or the one before that.
Figgy is a high-contact speedster with no power who has a not unexpected .334 career BABIP. So what's gone wrong in Seattle?
He's striking out far less this year (11%) but only so he can hit a weak double-play to the second baseman instead. He's also walking far less. In 85 AB's, Chone has 8 singles, 4 doubles, 1 triple (that happened last night) and 1 HR (from opening day) And since he's not getting on base, he only has 2 SB's.
I want to tell you that it can't always be this bad. That his RoS BABIP projection is .303 and 28 SB's and you should probably pick that up at dirt-cheap prices. But it pains me right now to say anything about the little bastard. Go with your heart.
4. Brett Gardner, .175
A Yankees fan might tell you that Gardner is still centerpiece material for a Felix Hernandez trade. A tend to lean towards the idea that this is a balancing act from last seasons explosion.
.277/.383/.379, 47 SB's, 97 R last year.
.145/.197/.306, 3 SB's, 7 R this year.
Like Figgins, Gardner's BABIP should be much better than this. Add in the fact that when he does rebound, he'll rebound for the Yankees, and you can expect the runs and stolen bases to pile up. ZiPs likes him for 36 more stolen bases and a .308 BABIP. I guess what's still concerning to me is an 8% drop in walks and an 11% increase in strikeouts.
5. Dan Uggla, .181
If you've learned nothing about Dan Uggla, learn this; he hates odd-numbered years and they hate him back. His averages and BABIP tanked in 2007 and 2009. They were much better in the other 3 years.
Don't concern yourself because Uggla is in a slump or because he's on a new team. He's the same as he ever was. If he continues a bad BABIP you know what you get? .240 average and 30 HR. If he has a good one? .270 average and 30 HR. If you like what Uggla has done in the past 5 years, grab him. If you don't, then don't.
6. Rod Barajas, .188
Barajas is a low-average, nice power catcher that you might spot start on occasion. Nothing to see here.
7. Carl Crawford, 188
Who here is actually surprised to see Crawfords name on this list? What, you were already thinking that the Red Sox blew that one?
Even if you did think that the Red Sox overpaid, they still got one hell of a player. He's going to rebound and be fine once some of his balls in play start falling for hits, and they will.
Crawford recently strung together back-to-back multi-hit games against the Angels. 40+ stolen bases in 7 of 8 straight seasons (minus an injury shortened season) with lots of runs, some bombs, and a career .333 BABIP on a very good team tell me that Crawford is going to rebound to another top fantasy season.
8. Miguel Tejada, .197
Are you still taking a flier on Miguel Tejada? I'm not going to lie, I don't know how much higher his BABIP, his .195 average, or his age are going to get this year.
9. Alex Rios, .203
I've never been a big Rios fan myself. But I know a lot of people are. I just don't hold as much value in a guy who gives you some HR and some SB's so "Yay! Lets get him!" because when the average bottomed out in Toronto, we saw what happened.
In Chicago, that's a different story. Home runs aplenty and Rios should be able to score runs, grab 25+ stolen bases, and be a fine option in fantasy leagues. His .169/.253/.213 line isn't being helped by his BABIP. He's hitting less fly balls and so far none of those have left the park. But that should change.
I don't love him, but at this price, it might be too good to pass up.
10. Ian Kinsler, .203
Two years ago I'll never forget when Kinsler had a .241 BABIP... and 31 HR/31 SB. It felt like once the BABIP rebounded, he could become one of the games best all-around players, not that he wasn't already.
Then last year his BABIP was .313 and his slugging percentage fell 76 points. His ISO is now higher than it was 2 years ago, but truthfully I don't know what to think about Ian. (We've had an off and on fantasy relationship for over 4 years. So I'm biased on Kinsler) but I think he'll be just fine, no matter what his BABIP says.