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Fake Teams Fantasy Player of the Day: Cardinals Starter Kyle Lohse

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Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse threw a complete game shutout vs the Nationals on Thursday, giving up just 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6. Lohse is now 3-1 with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP. He owns a 22-4 K/BB rate and is holding hitter to a .174 BAA.

Can fantasy owners expect this hot streak to continue? Well, he is striking out more batters as his K rate is at 6.45 vs a career rate of 5.64, and he has lowered his walk rate to 0.81 vs a career BB rate of 2.75. His ground ball rate has increased from a career average of 42% to 50%, and he is giving up fewer flyballs as a result. His infield fly ball rate is a crazy 21% right now vs his career infield fly ball rate of around 11%, so this should regress to his career average as the season goes on. And his HR/FB rate of 5.3% is the lowest of his career, so I see him giving up a few more HRs this year as he is a pitcher who pitches to contact.

Lohse's current ERA is about two runs lower than his career ERA of 4.76, and Lohse's other peripheral stats are also well above, or below, his career rates, so I do see some regression. But then again, he is healthy and his pitching coach, Dave Duncan, is the best in the business.