Just how much of a bargain Myers could be depends how stat saavy the owners of your league are. Myers is less likely to be a bargain if most players in your league aren't familiar with FIP, BABIP and TUNA. Ok I made that last one up but wouldn't it be cool to talk about how Brad Lidge's TUNA stinks or how Luke Scott's TUNA is going to be the key to his second half turnaround. Or should I say TUNAround. Ok that was dumb, where was I?
Brett Myers is going to go later in drafts involving statheads as many signs point to regression. They realize the odds are against a repeat of 2010 so the stay away. This makes for a golden opportunity to snatch a quality arm at a good draft position.
10 points to anyone who comes up with a stat that is measured as TUNA.
Less convoluted dissection of Brett Myers after the jump.
The old adage is "never pay for a career year" and this is true in most leagues as some less informed players will see his 14-8, 3.14 ERA and 180 Ks and think he will do it again. The hardcore stat geeks realize it is unlikely he will keep up his dominance so they are inclined to stay away from him on draft day. This is where you can get a deal on Myers. The sabermetric crowd see the 78% strand rate and a HR/9 decrease more than 50% from his career rate and expect decline so they stay away it like they were Paris Hilton and Myers was dignity.
Yes Myers is likely to regress but even a step back makes for a fine pitcher. His consistency last year was borderline historical and he pitched an excellent 223.2 innings. The innings count shows he is past the injuries that derailed his career and he is back to being the workhorse he was for a time in Philly. His K/9 climbed as the season wore on and his BB/9 dropped. His FIP and xFIP support the idea that he is a sub 4.00 ERA pitcher.
Pitching for the Astros isn't going to help him in the win column but it's not as bad as it seems. On any given day the Astros are a pretty mediocre team but on days when Myers is pitching they have a hurler who is likely to give them 6+ innings of well above average performance. Having that kind of a pitcher on the mound increases a team's chances of winning dramatically.
His slider turned into a plus pitch to go with a plus curve and he has the endurance to put up another 200+ IP season. Sure he won't repeat last year's numbers but don't let that fool you into thinking he is not a great pitcher.