I am making some changes to the 13-24...er make that 13-25, outfielder rankings, as I have added Mike Stanton and B.J. Upton. I have moved Chris Young and Drew Stubbs up a bit as well. Let's have a look.
Here is the second part of my updated outfielder rankings for 2011:
13. Alex Rios, CHW (RF)-Rios was solid in his first year in Chicago, hitting .284-.334-.457 and a 20 HR-30 SB season. Can he duplicate this in 2011? I think he can, as long as he stays healthy. He hits in a solid lineup and U.S Cellular is a hitters haven.
14. Nelson Cruz, TEX (RF)-I wonder how many HRs Cruz would hit if he could stay healthy for 600 at bats. Cruz hit .318-.374-.576 with 22 HRs, 78 RBIs and 17 SBs in just under 400 at bats in 2010. Cruz hits alot of flyballs with FB rates around 45% the last two seasons, and excellent HR/FB% , so he could have a 30 HR season in the near future. I won't be as optimistic as he is an injury risk, but I could see a 25 HR-85 RBI-15 SB season in 2011.
15. Chris Young, ARI (CF)-Young hit .257-.341-.452 with 27 HRs, 91 RBIs, 94 runs, and 28 SBs in 2010 and will be looking to build upon that in 2011. Young will be 27 in 2011, and new manager Kirk Gibson is preaching to be more aggressive on the basepaths this year. Could Young approach a 30-30 season in 2011? If he could prove to be a .260 hitter, hitting in Chase Field for 81 games, he very well could. If so, he will move into the Top 5 in 2012.
More rankings after the jump:
16. Mike Stanton, FLA (RF)- Stanton, assuming he is healthy, has a very good shot at hitting 35+ HRs this season. There were only 6 hitters who hit 35+ HRs in 2010, and a few others who came close. Stanton should hit 40+ HRs in his prime, but we don't know at this point when that will be. Should his thigh injury be a thing of the past, I think Stanton could also chip in double digit SBs this season, but fantasy owners will have to deal with the low BA.
17. Jay Bruce, CIN (RF)-many fantasy owners are waiting for Bruce to have that great breakout season, and if Bruce's BABIP increase from .221 in 2009 to .334 in 2010, 2011 may just be the year he meets fantasy owner's expectations. Bruce hit 15 HRs in the last two months of the season while hitting .333 in August and .346 in September. Could he be the 2011 version of Jose Bautista? Maybe not 54 HRs, but he could approach 40, if he can build upon his strong August and September.
18. Drew Stubbs, CIN (CF)-Stubbs is a Chris Young clone, with slightly less power. Stubbs had a breakout season in 2010, hitting just .255-.329-.444 with 22 HRs, 77 RBIs and 30 SBs. The power came out of nowhere, but he has always had the speed to steal 30 bases. Stubbs is the outfield version of Mark Reynolds, as he strikes out a ton-33% in 2010, but he does get his fair share of walks-9.4% as well. I think Stubbs can approach, but not duplicate, his 2010 breakout season in 2011.
19. Shane Victorino, PHI (CF)-Victorino will be counted on to duplicate or improve upon his solid 2010 season in 2011. Last year, he almost doubled his HR output from 10 HRs in 2009 to 18 HRs in 2010, and increased his SBs from 25 to 34. Is the power jump sustainable? Well, his FB rate increased from 33% to 38% and his HR/FB% almost doubled to 9.5%, so as long as he keeps hitting more flyballs, and he very well could, he could approach 20 HRs and steal 30+ bases again in 2011.
20. B.J. Upton, TB (CF)-Upton is another outfielder who won't hit for a high BA, but will provide solid power and excellent SBs totals for fantasy owners in 2011. In 2010, he hit just .237-.322-.424 with 18 HRs and 42 SBs. He has stolen 40+ bases three years in a row now, and his HR totals have increased the last two seasons. I don't think I am going out on a limb saying he could go 20-40 in 2011 as long as the power continues to grow.
21. Corey Hart, MIL (RF)-I lowered Hart as I am not sure I buy his 30 HR season in 2010, but I think he can go 20-20 this year. New manager Ron Roenicke wants the team to run more, and Hart could be a beneficiary as he has stolen 20+ bases twice in his career, but I think he is more of a 20 HR type hitter than a 30 HR hitter. Hart's HR/FB% ballooned to 16.8% from 8.8% in 2009, and his FB% also increased from 42% to 44%. I am not confident he can maintain the high HR/FB rate, but I see a 20-20 season as a possibility in 2011.
22. Andre Ethier, LAD (RF)-I have lowered Ethier in these rankings, as I look at the Dodgers lineup, and after Ethier, Kemp and Furcal, there is not much to the Dodgers offense. And this is coming from a Dodgers fan. Ethier had a very hot start to the 2010 season which saw him hit .329 in April and .453 in May, but then he injured a pinky and was not the same hitter the rest of the season. As a result, his power numbers dropped from 31-106 to 23-82 in 2010, but his triple slash line improved slightly from .272-.361-.508 to .292-.364-.493. I see him hitting 25-28 HRs with 90 RBIs and a .290 BA in 2011.
23. Jose Bautista, TOR, (LF)-Jeremy and I drafted Bautista in the BBA Blogzkrieg slow auction recently, but I do have some concerns with him in 2011. No one sees him hitting 54 bombs again, but many are Bautista bulls, and think he can be a 40 HR hitter this year.But what concerns me is his FB% jumped from 42% to 55% and his HR/FB% increased from 12.3% to 21.7%. Can he maintain the 55% FB rate or 22% HR/FB rate? Probably not, but I see him hitting 30-35 HRs, 90 ribbies with a low BA.
24. Juan Pierre, CHW-can you imagine where Pierre would rank if he hit double digit HRs every year? Top 5-6, maybe? Pierre stole 68 bases last year, and that is all you need to know about him as a hitter. Well, the triple slash line of .275-.341-.316 wasn't great, but with a guy like Pierre, all you want is for him to get on base, steal bases, and score runs. He scored 96 runs in 2010, and could score 100+ in 2011, as his BABIP and BA were his lowest since 2005 when he stole 57 bases and scored 96 runs. Look for Pierre to steal 60+ and score 100+ in 2011.
25. Colby Rasmus, STL (CF)-Rasmus will be looking to improve upon his first full season in the majors, and hopes to stay in the lineup as well. His run-ins with manager Tony LaRussa precede him, but Rasmus has the talent to easily move up these rankings in 2011. I think Rasmus is too good of a hitter to not continue to grow at the plate, but he will have to reduce his Ks, and continue to hit for solid power. He could go 25-15 in 2011.
Here are the rest of my updated 2011 position rankings: