A huge bust is usually a thing to celebrate but not in fantasy baseball. Rather than turning your head in awe you hang your head in shame. But just like any visit to the mall, park or supermarket you always have to be on the lookout for busts. Drew Stubbs has the potential to conjure up images of Dolly Parton if he is unable to repeat his success from 2010.
An established base stealer in the minors, the 30 SB are here to stay and could even increase to 40. The question around Stubbs is his power after shocking many when he hit 22 HR last year. His previous career high was the 12 he hit in A in 2007. If the Reds speedster fails to put the ball over the fence next year he will have a hard time reaching his draft position for most owners. He won't hit for AVG which limits his SB ceiling and if the power disappears he will be a one category player and his spot at the top of the Reds batting order would be in jeopardy. A lack of HR would make Stubbs fairly valueless.
There is reason to believe the power is for real though. At 6'5" 205 lbs Stubbs has the size to hit the ball a long way. He also swings hard which is what leads to the low contact rate and high strikeout totals. He hit 8 bombs in only 196 plate appearances with the Reds in 2009 so he seems to do a better job of going yard in the bigs. Stubbs also gain power as the season went along and provided hope that even more than 22 HR could be in store.
With so much uncertainty surrounding his power, Stubbs is the ultimate risk/reward player this year. He has the potential to put up some ultra mega numbers but he could just as easily struggle to go deep and fizzle out of the fantasy conversation. He won't go unnoticed this year so if you want him you're going to have to snatch him early. I guess it depends on how confident in his power you are. Was last year a 6'5' youngster coming into his power stroke or was it an aberration that will correct itself this year?