The fantasy baseball season may be over, but that doesn't mean that the conversation is. We'll continue to bring you an edition of FTHtFBL three times a week throughout the offseason. Here are today's links:
End of Season Statistics 2011 | Walk Like A Sabermetrician
A wealth of information in spreadsheet form. Bookmark it, use it.
30 HR power has never been part of the scouting report on Ellsbury, and while scouting reports aren’t gospel, there aren’t many guys who make the leap from "average to good gap power" to "potential cleanup hitter" and can make the change stick. If he hits 15 home runs next year, it would still be his second best season ever and yet less than half his total from this year. The question you need to ask yourself as an owner is whether that potential drop of 15-20 HR is a deal-breaker for you.
The metrics were extremely realistic, including [Boesch's] 11.9% HR/FB rate and 38.9% fly ball rate, meaning the power and average are easily repeatable, though that doesn’t mean we should assume it’s going to improve. Exactly how far could his power grow?
Follow the jump for more of the latest fantasy baseball news and analysis from around the web.
Still, it’s not as if A-Rod showed huge signs of decline in 2011. When healthy, A-Rod basically lived up to expectations. His decline in slugging percentage is worrisome, but some of that can probably be chalked up to his injuries. If we expect Rodriguez to remain healthier next season, we should be able to expect somewhat of a return to his 2010 numbers. He might not reach 30+ home runs next season, but 25 seems reasonable.
However, would it surprise anyone to see the Braves trade Minor in order to bolster the lineup? If that were to happen, Teheran could break camp as the Braves #5 starter. It’s a storyline worth watching. Obviously, we’ll re-address this later in the offseason, but Teheran is a pitcher that should definitely be at the forefront of fantasy owner’s minds. If he opens the year with the Braves, he has the potential to be 2011’s version of Michael Pineda.
The bottom line on Minor is that he has shown pretty good skills that have carried over well from the minors, but the BABIP bug has bitten him hard. It seems much too early to claim he is a true talent high-BABIPer, so you have to expect that to come down to the league average next season. His overall value will obviously depend a lot on whether he has a rotation spot coming out of spring training, and what team that spot is even with. He could very well turn a nice profit for NL-Only leaguers and I still believe he could generate some mixed league value as well.
Nova really is only good at doing one thing on the mound and that is inducing ground balls. But this is not the next Chien-Ming Wang. Wang was able to sustain pretty good success because he was an extreme ground ball pitcher at his peak, regularly posting a GB% in the upper 50% to lower 60% range, which was at or near the MLB lead. Although Nova’s GB% is pretty good around 52%, that is simply not good enough when you sport a weak K% and league average control.
Five Things I Learned During The 2011 Baseball Season | Rotoprofessor
Some good stuff here. Will second base be the shallowest position in 2012?
Top 20 Catchers, 2011 Fantasy Baseball | Razzball
A look at how the top 20 catchers did last year for 2011 fantasy baseball. The biggest question going forward in my mind is what to do with Alex Avila.
Your 2012 AL ROY Candidates | FanGraphs Baseball
Who you got? Of course, you should keep these guys in mind on draft day, but don't be the guy that overpays.
Your 2012 NL ROY Candidates | FanGraphs Baseball
Ditto the NL. I can see Bryce Harper shooting up draft boards already.
Milwaukee Brewers 2011 Minor League Review | Razzball
Looks like we're going to get one of these for each team over the winter. As far as the Brewers are concerned, it looks like this year is their window.
Florida Marlins 2011 Minor League Review | Razzball
Hey, their rookie team did really well!
THT’s top 100 prospects, part 4 | The Hardball Times
Parts 1-3 can be found on previous editions of FTHtFBL.
Successfully Making Trades in the Information Age | Fantasy Sharks
This is written from the perspective of fantasy football, but it definitely applies across the board. A short summary: Don't insult potential trade partners with ridiculous trade offers.
Streaming Starting Pitchers | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball
Where do you guys stand on this issue? I personally have no problem with streaming, but in one of my leagues some concerns have been brought up. Help me understand what the problem is here.
Baseball ProGUESTus: A New Take on Plate Discipline--Redefining the Zone | Baseball Prospectus
This probably doesn't have much fantasy relevance (yet), but it's incredibly fascinating.
Manufactured Runs: The Problem of Pain | Baseball Prospectus
Beautifully written. Any time C.S. Lewis can be linked with baseball, it's a good thing.