Tuesday is the trade deadline in my big money 5 x 5 league and I received the following offer last evening:
I give up: Tim Hudson and Carlos Lee
I get: Matt Kemp and Jeff Francis
I currently sit in 5th place, one point out of 4th place, and 5 points out of 3rd place. I am 5 HRs from 3 points in HRs, 3 RBIs from another point in RBIs, and 11 runs from another point in runs.
On the pitching side, I am 6 wins ahead of the guy behind me (I have 9 starters now), and am 11 strikeouts ahead of the guy behind me.
Checking out fangraphs, Hudson has an FIP of 4.01 and an 84% LOB%, while Francis has an FIP of 3.49 and a LOB% OF 64%. Is it possible both are due to regress to the mean, where Francis pitches to his FIP of 3.49 and Hudson finally implodes and pitches to his 4.01 FIP? Their strand rates tell you they should, no?
Can Matt Kemp outperform Carlos Lee going forward? Silly question on paper, I know, but looking at their stats tell a different story. Kemp has gone 18-62-61-16-.258-.315-.449, while Lee has gone 14-48-56-2-.248-.296-.403.
I am leaning toward pulling the trigger, but what do Fake Teamers think?