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Fantasy Baseball: Midseason Starting Pitcher Rankings

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By Seth Walder
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After much stat crunching, a lot of thinking and a decent amount of math, the starting pitcher rankings are finished. The four of us ranked what we believed to be our top 70 pitchers, though 80 pitchers were ranked overall. 

I felt that if you looked at the rankings as a whole, there were effectively three broad tiers of players. Inside the tiers we tended to disagree, but at the macro level I got the sense that there was a certain amount of consensus. I think as you go through the individual rankings you may notice the same thing. 

As always I will point out that these rankings reflect what we believe these players will do from this point onward. Actually, since each of us actually created our own rankings over a week ago, you ought to take them as "from a week ago onward." In the same vein, keep in mind that the rankings were done before a number of injuries, such as the ones to Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett and the rankings do not reflect the players' status post-injury.

Because of the scale of the chart, I will not put it on the front page, just click on the jump to find it.

Rank Player Ray Jason Brian Seth Average
1 Roy Halladay 2 1 2 1 1.5
2 Adam Wainwright 3 3 4 2 2.75
3 Josh Johnson 1 4 3 4 3
4 Tim Lincecum 5 2 6 5 4.5
T-5 Cliff Lee 4 5 9 3 5.25
T-5 Ubaldo Jimenez 8 6 1 6 5.25
7 Felix Hernandez 10 7 5 8 7.5
8 Jon Lester 11 8 7 7 8.25
9 C.C. Sabathia 9 9 10 9 9.25
10 David Price 6 12 11 13 10.5
11 Jered Weaver 12 10 12 10 11
12 Justin Verlander 13 11 8 14 11.5
13 Clayton Kershaw 7 20 13 18 14.5
14 Yovani Gallardo 23 14 16 20 18.25
15 Chris Carpenter 32 13 17 12 18.5
16 Dan Haren 29 16 18 15 19.5
17 Roy Oswalt 17 23 15 16 17.75
18 Zack Greinke 24 17 27 17 21.25
19 Tommy Hanson 26 15 31 19 22.75
20 Phil Hughes 20 22 14 24 20
T-21 Stephen Strasburg 14 18 29 21 20.5
T-21 Johan Santana 15 19 23 25 20.5
T-23 Francisco Liriano 30 27 25 11 23.25
T-23 Clay Buchholz 16 24 20 33 23.25
25 Matt Cain 19 25 26 26 24
26 Mat Latos 25 21 36 22 26
27 John Danks 37 26 19 23 26.25
28 Andy Pettitte 18 41 24 36 29.75
29 Tim Hudson 28 38 30 37 33.25
30 Matt Garza 34 34 21 47 34
31 Chad Billingsley 42 35 22 38 34.25
32 Colby Lewis 36 33 39 31 34.75
33 Ryan Dempster 43 29 41 29 35.5
34 Trevor Cahill 22 40 28 54 36
T-35 Jeff Niemann 35 30 38 45 37
T-35 Javier Vazquez 27 32 35 46 37
37 Ricky Romero 57 28 37 28 37.5
38 James Shields 33 39 34 48 38.5
T-39 Josh Beckett 41 31 54 40 41.5
T-39 Cole Hamels 60 44 32 30 41.5
41 Jaime Garcia 54 37 49 27 41.75
T-42 Max Scherzer 40 36 52 41 42.25
T-42 Ervin Santana 31 46 40 42 42.25
44 Johnny Cueto 47 47 33 49 44
45 Ricky Nolasco 21 52 62 44 44.75
46 Jonathan Sanchez 52 51 45 39 46.75
47 Hiroki Kuroda 42 48 66 34 47.5
48 Gavin Floyd 45 45 51 53 48.5
49 Shaun Marcum 44 59 NR 32 51.5
T-50 Carl Pavano 62 56 44 50 53
T-50 Ted Lilly 61 61 55 35 53
T-50 Brett Anderson 49 49 NR 43 53
T-50 Jair Jurrjens 48 54 42 68 53
54 C.J. Wilson 63 43 56 57 54.75
55 Edinson Volquez 47 58 58 59 55.5
56 Wandy Rodriguez NR 42 48 64 56.25
57 Clayton Richard 64 55 43 66 57
58 Bronson Arroyo 39 66 53 NR 57.25
59 Scott Baker NR 63 46 51 57.75
60 Mike Pelfrey 50 57 69 56 58
61 John Lackey NR 50 47 NR 59.75
62 Jason Hammel 55 62 70 58 61.25
63 Jorge De La Rosa 58 68 59 61 61.5
64 Carlos Silva NR 65 60 55 62.75
65 Joel Pineiro 51 NR 61 NR 63.5
T-66 Kris Medlen 67 64 64 62 64.25
T-66 A.J. Burnett NR NR 63 52 64.25
68 Barry Zito 66 NR 50 NR 64.5
T-69 Brandon Morrow NR 53 NR NR 66.5
T-69 Vicente Padilla 53 NR NR NR 66.5
71 Gio Gonzalez NR 60 65 NR 66.75
72 Edwin Jackson 69 NR 57 NR 67
T-73 Ian Kennedy 59 NR NR NR 68
T-73 Fausto Carmona 65 NR NR 65 68
75 Anibal Sanchez NR NR NR 60 68.25
76 Madison Bumgarner 68 67 68 NR 68.5
77 Jonathan Niese NR NR NR 63 69
78 Mike Leake 70 70 67 70 69.25
T-79 Brian Matusz NR NR NR 67 70
T-79 Brett Myers NR 69 NR 69 70

Not bad, right? 

My three "general" tiers would be 1-27 (Halladay to Danks), 28-49 (Pettitte to Marcum), 50-80 (Pavano to Myers). Obviously they can be broken down more than that, and while there was a little crossover, I think those tiers are reasonably accurate reflection of the rankings.

A couple of names that stuck out to me as players that we were split on: Clay Buchholz, Jaime Garcia, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Shaun Marcum and John Lackey. I'll be interested to see what the commenters have to say about those. 

As always, feel free to address each of us individually about some of decisions--such is the beauty of rankings!

I would like to add that the majority of the math was done in bed with a semi-questionable calculator. Apologies in advance if there are any mathematical errors. 

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