After much stat crunching, a lot of thinking and a decent amount of math, the starting pitcher rankings are finished. The four of us ranked what we believed to be our top 70 pitchers, though 80 pitchers were ranked overall.
I felt that if you looked at the rankings as a whole, there were effectively three broad tiers of players. Inside the tiers we tended to disagree, but at the macro level I got the sense that there was a certain amount of consensus. I think as you go through the individual rankings you may notice the same thing.
As always I will point out that these rankings reflect what we believe these players will do from this point onward. Actually, since each of us actually created our own rankings over a week ago, you ought to take them as "from a week ago onward." In the same vein, keep in mind that the rankings were done before a number of injuries, such as the ones to Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett and the rankings do not reflect the players' status post-injury.
Because of the scale of the chart, I will not put it on the front page, just click on the jump to find it.
Rank | Player | Ray | Jason | Brian | Seth | Average |
1 | Roy Halladay | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 |
2 | Adam Wainwright | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2.75 |
3 | Josh Johnson | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
4 | Tim Lincecum | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4.5 |
T-5 | Cliff Lee | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 5.25 |
T-5 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 8 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5.25 |
7 | Felix Hernandez | 10 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 7.5 |
8 | Jon Lester | 11 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8.25 |
9 | C.C. Sabathia | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9.25 |
10 | David Price | 6 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 10.5 |
11 | Jered Weaver | 12 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
12 | Justin Verlander | 13 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 11.5 |
13 | Clayton Kershaw | 7 | 20 | 13 | 18 | 14.5 |
14 | Yovani Gallardo | 23 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 18.25 |
15 | Chris Carpenter | 32 | 13 | 17 | 12 | 18.5 |
16 | Dan Haren | 29 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 19.5 |
17 | Roy Oswalt | 17 | 23 | 15 | 16 | 17.75 |
18 | Zack Greinke | 24 | 17 | 27 | 17 | 21.25 |
19 | Tommy Hanson | 26 | 15 | 31 | 19 | 22.75 |
20 | Phil Hughes | 20 | 22 | 14 | 24 | 20 |
T-21 | Stephen Strasburg | 14 | 18 | 29 | 21 | 20.5 |
T-21 | Johan Santana | 15 | 19 | 23 | 25 | 20.5 |
T-23 | Francisco Liriano | 30 | 27 | 25 | 11 | 23.25 |
T-23 | Clay Buchholz | 16 | 24 | 20 | 33 | 23.25 |
25 | Matt Cain | 19 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 24 |
26 | Mat Latos | 25 | 21 | 36 | 22 | 26 |
27 | John Danks | 37 | 26 | 19 | 23 | 26.25 |
28 | Andy Pettitte | 18 | 41 | 24 | 36 | 29.75 |
29 | Tim Hudson | 28 | 38 | 30 | 37 | 33.25 |
30 | Matt Garza | 34 | 34 | 21 | 47 | 34 |
31 | Chad Billingsley | 42 | 35 | 22 | 38 | 34.25 |
32 | Colby Lewis | 36 | 33 | 39 | 31 | 34.75 |
33 | Ryan Dempster | 43 | 29 | 41 | 29 | 35.5 |
34 | Trevor Cahill | 22 | 40 | 28 | 54 | 36 |
T-35 | Jeff Niemann | 35 | 30 | 38 | 45 | 37 |
T-35 | Javier Vazquez | 27 | 32 | 35 | 46 | 37 |
37 | Ricky Romero | 57 | 28 | 37 | 28 | 37.5 |
38 | James Shields | 33 | 39 | 34 | 48 | 38.5 |
T-39 | Josh Beckett | 41 | 31 | 54 | 40 | 41.5 |
T-39 | Cole Hamels | 60 | 44 | 32 | 30 | 41.5 |
41 | Jaime Garcia | 54 | 37 | 49 | 27 | 41.75 |
T-42 | Max Scherzer | 40 | 36 | 52 | 41 | 42.25 |
T-42 | Ervin Santana | 31 | 46 | 40 | 42 | 42.25 |
44 | Johnny Cueto | 47 | 47 | 33 | 49 | 44 |
45 | Ricky Nolasco | 21 | 52 | 62 | 44 | 44.75 |
46 | Jonathan Sanchez | 52 | 51 | 45 | 39 | 46.75 |
47 | Hiroki Kuroda | 42 | 48 | 66 | 34 | 47.5 |
48 | Gavin Floyd | 45 | 45 | 51 | 53 | 48.5 |
49 | Shaun Marcum | 44 | 59 | NR | 32 | 51.5 |
T-50 | Carl Pavano | 62 | 56 | 44 | 50 | 53 |
T-50 | Ted Lilly | 61 | 61 | 55 | 35 | 53 |
T-50 | Brett Anderson | 49 | 49 | NR | 43 | 53 |
T-50 | Jair Jurrjens | 48 | 54 | 42 | 68 | 53 |
54 | C.J. Wilson | 63 | 43 | 56 | 57 | 54.75 |
55 | Edinson Volquez | 47 | 58 | 58 | 59 | 55.5 |
56 | Wandy Rodriguez | NR | 42 | 48 | 64 | 56.25 |
57 | Clayton Richard | 64 | 55 | 43 | 66 | 57 |
58 | Bronson Arroyo | 39 | 66 | 53 | NR | 57.25 |
59 | Scott Baker | NR | 63 | 46 | 51 | 57.75 |
60 | Mike Pelfrey | 50 | 57 | 69 | 56 | 58 |
61 | John Lackey | NR | 50 | 47 | NR | 59.75 |
62 | Jason Hammel | 55 | 62 | 70 | 58 | 61.25 |
63 | Jorge De La Rosa | 58 | 68 | 59 | 61 | 61.5 |
64 | Carlos Silva | NR | 65 | 60 | 55 | 62.75 |
65 | Joel Pineiro | 51 | NR | 61 | NR | 63.5 |
T-66 | Kris Medlen | 67 | 64 | 64 | 62 | 64.25 |
T-66 | A.J. Burnett | NR | NR | 63 | 52 | 64.25 |
68 | Barry Zito | 66 | NR | 50 | NR | 64.5 |
T-69 | Brandon Morrow | NR | 53 | NR | NR | 66.5 |
T-69 | Vicente Padilla | 53 | NR | NR | NR | 66.5 |
71 | Gio Gonzalez | NR | 60 | 65 | NR | 66.75 |
72 | Edwin Jackson | 69 | NR | 57 | NR | 67 |
T-73 | Ian Kennedy | 59 | NR | NR | NR | 68 |
T-73 | Fausto Carmona | 65 | NR | NR | 65 | 68 |
75 | Anibal Sanchez | NR | NR | NR | 60 | 68.25 |
76 | Madison Bumgarner | 68 | 67 | 68 | NR | 68.5 |
77 | Jonathan Niese | NR | NR | NR | 63 | 69 |
78 | Mike Leake | 70 | 70 | 67 | 70 | 69.25 |
T-79 | Brian Matusz | NR | NR | NR | 67 | 70 |
T-79 | Brett Myers | NR | 69 | NR | 69 | 70 |
Not bad, right?
My three "general" tiers would be 1-27 (Halladay to Danks), 28-49 (Pettitte to Marcum), 50-80 (Pavano to Myers). Obviously they can be broken down more than that, and while there was a little crossover, I think those tiers are reasonably accurate reflection of the rankings.
A couple of names that stuck out to me as players that we were split on: Clay Buchholz, Jaime Garcia, Matt Garza, Ricky Nolasco, Shaun Marcum and John Lackey. I'll be interested to see what the commenters have to say about those.
As always, feel free to address each of us individually about some of decisions--such is the beauty of rankings!
I would like to add that the majority of the math was done in bed with a semi-questionable calculator. Apologies in advance if there are any mathematical errors.