Yesterday, I posted some players that I'd buy low if I was trying to add some help, and didn't want to give up too much (or anything at all in some cases, playing the Waiver Wire). Anyhow, today I want to focus on guys that I think are going to hit the wall, and that I think you can get more than what they're worth.
- Carlos Silva. The guy just went 8-0. Surprise story in the NL Central, as nobody was expecting this. The guy currently is sporting a 2.93 ERA and a 1.064 WHIP. This is a guy in his 9th season, and has a career ERA of 4.62, and a career WHIP is 1.39 or so. So what's the deal here? Well, I think the guy is pitching a little over his head. He is benefiting right now from switching to the NL without a doubt, but I can't tell if he'll sustain this. His strikeout rate is 50% higher than his career mark, although his walks and homeruns allowed are in line with his career numbers. His hits allowed is about 20% lower than his career average as well and his BAbip is .262. One last note as well, his average run support/game is 6.8. Most starting pitchers are going to stack wins with that kind of support. For me, I don't think it will last, and trade him for something I need, if I have a good staff of starting pitchers. If my starting pitching is weak, then I probably hang onto him and hope for the best.
- Ubaldo Jimenez. Trade a guy who's just dominating the league right now, huh? Unlike Silva, I think Ubaldo is a good, possibly great, pitcher. I think he'll finish the season towards the top of pitching and it's his race to lose for the NL Cy Young. But right now, you can get a ton of value for Ubaldo. Again, it depends on what the rest of your pitching looks like, for sure, but say you're in bottom quartile of your league and you have Ubaldo. At your rate, you aren't winning the league anyways. Trading him, you can get a handful of quality players that can really help your team out. People are going to pay for that .93 ERA and .93 WHIP and those 11 wins (even though they didn't accumulate them), but I think we all know that those numbers will go up... Unless you think he's the 2nd coming of Pedro in the late 90s/early 2000s. Also, if you trade him, trade him to a team that's pitching is already pretty good, so there is less movement than if you're trading him to the team that's near the bottom in pitching. You want to get better, but you also want to move up in the standings.
Scott Rolen. I'm not exactly sure what you can get for him. The guy is injury prone and 35 years old. If I had to bet, I'd guess he'd be spending some time on the DL. Even if he stayed health most of the season, I can't see him hitting more than 25 HRs on the year, and driving in more than 90 runs. Right now, he's performing like a Top-30 guy. He's going to regress and perform more like a Top 125 guy if I had to bet on it. Thing is, I'm not sure how much people are buying into Rolen right now anyways, and 3B can be tough to fill. Even if you're committed to keeping him, I'd be looking at other 3B options in the event he does go down.
- Jose Bautista. Kind of an obvious pick, I know. I don't know if anyone is buying into him too much as well, although I've seen some movement with him in a league I'm in, so obviously some people are believers. The guy has already hit his career high of HRs in a season. I don't think we're going to see 40+ HRs and 120+ RBI from him. Unload him, and hope that at least somebody in your league is buying into that.
- Jonathan Sanchez. Dude knows how to strike guys out. No doubt. 481.2 career innings pitched, 497 career strikeouts. You gotta give him that. His strike outs and walks are reasonable to his career totals. His hits allowed is way down though. His career mark is 8 hits allowed per 9, and this year it's 5.8 thus far. His career WHIP is 1.4, but he's pitching at 1.1 right now. His BAbip is .235 this year vs. his career average (and MLB average) of .299. In the past, his high WHIP was always a deal breaker. Strikeouts are harder to find via waivers than Wins, Saves, and WHIP. Here's the thing, he pitches on a team with a crappy offense, so there aren't going to be a ton of wins. Anyhow. I think he starts to give up more hits and runs. I think he pitches from here on out more like his career. If I owned him, I'd unload him while he's still ranked in the Top 25 of starting pitchers.
What about you guys? Who are your sell high candidates right now?