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Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitchers Who Could Underperform Going Forward

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A few days ago, I posted an article discussing some pitchers who you may want to buy on the cheap as they could outperform going forward. Today, I give you some pitchers who could underperform going forward.

The stats are season to date stats courtesy of Fangraphs:

Name K/BB WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA FIP E-F xFIP ERA - XFIP
Livan Hernandez 0.85 1.02 0.19 97.60% 0.99 4.62 -3.63 5.35 -4.36
Doug Fister 3.20 0.80 0.22 82.80% 1.29 2.68 -1.4 3.97 -2.68
Jon Garland 1.15 1.37 0.25 75.30% 2.06 4.60 -2.54 4.69 -2.63
Jaime Garcia 1.77 1.00 0.22 81.80% 1.13 2.96 -1.83 3.72 -2.59
Barry Zito 2.33 0.92 0.23 82.10% 1.49 2.61 -1.12 4.06 -2.57
C.J. Wilson 1.92 1.19 0.28 81.40% 1.65 3.11 -1.46 4.16 -2.51
Jeff Niemann 2.18 0.99 0.21 89.80% 2.23 4.35 -2.12 4.61 -2.38
Ubaldo Jimenez 2.75 1.02 0.26 90.70% 0.87 2.19 -1.31 3.14 -2.27
Rich Harden 1.35 1.50 0.26 81.50% 3.52 5.49 -1.97 5.71 -2.19
A.J. Burnett 2.55 1.16 0.29 80.30% 1.99 3.06 -1.06 4.01 -2.02
Mitch Talbot 0.80 1.25 0.21 83.30% 2.88 5.59 -2.7 4.89 -2.01
Andy Pettitte 2.08 1.21 0.29 83.70% 2.08 3.11 -1.03 4.07 -1.99
John Danks 3.09 1.07 0.28 82.50% 1.98 2.86 -0.89 3.96 -1.98
Zack Greinke 4.71 0.98 0.26 80.20% 2.27 3.56 -1.29 4.21 -1.94
Brad Penny 3.00 1.13 0.28 83.30% 1.99 3.13 -1.14 3.87 -1.88
Matt Garza 2.79 1.07 0.26 84.50% 2.09 3.29 -1.2 3.94 -1.85
Mike Pelfrey 1.50 1.33 0.28 82.90% 2.40 3.51 -1.11 4.22 -1.82
Wade Davis 1.38 1.28 0.23 85.40% 2.79 4.56 -1.77 4.58 -1.79
David Price 2.70 1.01 0.25 80.80% 2.34 3.14 -0.8 3.96 -1.62
Francisco Liriano 2.77 1.08 0.28 84.60% 1.50 2.16 -0.66 3.07 -1.57



A couple guys on this list are obvious candidates to regress-Livan Hernandez, Barry Zito and Jon Garland to name a few. Others, like Ubaldo Jimenez should underperform only because he can't pitch any better than he is right now, but you will never get full value for him if you traded him. I would keep him if I had him on any of my teams today.

Mike Pelfrey is also on this list, but I have a feeling he can pitch well for the rest of the season. Maybe not 2.40 ERA-like, but would a mid-3 ERA upset fantasy owners? I also wonder if Francisco Liriano, Wade Davis and David Price can keep up the nice work going forward.