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Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitchers To Buy On The Cheap??

I wanted to get this out last weekend, but here you go. Here is a list of pitchers who should show improvement in their ERA/WHIP going forward based on their xFIP. If you need a refresher, I wrote about xFIP here.

These stats are through April 30th courtesy of Fangraphs:

Name K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 WHIP BABIP LOB% ERA xFIP ERA - xFIP
Edwin Jackson 4.73 2.78 1.70 1.39 1.76 0.362 57.70% 8.07 4.59 3.48
Aaron Harang 7.22 1.87 3.86 1.87 1.51 0.353 61.10% 6.68 3.84 2.84
Gavin Floyd 6.89 3.86 1.79 0.83 1.81 0.385 58.40% 6.89 4.31 2.58
Justin Masterson 10.46 4.05 2.58 1.35 1.80 0.42 65.30% 5.40 3.11 2.29
Joel Pineiro 4.85 1.52 3.20 1.21 1.52 0.347 64.40% 5.76 3.91 1.85
Josh Beckett 6.56 3.28 2.00 1.01 1.57 0.343 61.10% 6.31 4.46 1.85
Max Scherzer 5.91 3.09 1.91 1.69 1.56 0.323 58.30% 6.47 4.80 1.67
Joe Saunders 3.82 4.11 0.93 2.05 1.79 0.316 64.90% 7.04 5.40 1.64
Brandon Morrow 10.61 5.14 2.06 0.96 1.46 0.324 67.00% 5.46 3.83 1.63
Ben Sheets 4.75 4.75 1.00 1.78 1.91 0.341 66.50% 7.12 5.64 1.48
Homer Bailey 8.58 4.13 2.08 1.27 1.76 0.384 69.00% 6.04 4.60 1.44
Bronson Arroyo 6.38 3.44 1.86 0.98 1.36 0.293 58.20% 6.14 4.73 1.41
Tim Wakefield 5.60 2.63 2.13 1.65 1.57 0.333 62.20% 6.59 5.23 1.36
Jake Peavy 7.82 5.30 1.48 1.01 1.60 0.315 64.30% 6.31 5.02 1.29
Jamie Moyer 4.50 1.50 3.00 2.10 1.33 0.287 66.30% 5.70 4.44 1.26
Dan Haren 9.23 2.25 4.10 1.35 1.30 0.334 71.10% 4.50 3.33 1.17
Scott Baker 6.62 2.55 2.60 1.02 1.50 0.346 67.50% 5.35 4.21 1.14
Cole Hamels 10.24 2.79 3.67 1.63 1.42 0.356 77.90% 4.42 3.31 1.11
Zach Duke 4.50 4.24 1.06 1.32 1.71 0.319 67.90% 6.09 5.00 1.09
Jake Westbrook 6.03 4.88 1.24 1.15 1.69 0.322 70.00% 5.74 4.72 1.02

As you can see, most of these pitchers have experienced abnormally high BABIP and extremely low LOB% for the first month of the season, and could provide value going forward should you get them on the cheap.

Since the beginning of May, Edwin Jackson, Ben Sheets and Max Scherzer have not fared too well, but may be available on the waiver wire in mixed leagues. Cole Hamels and Jake Peavy both pitched very well in their first May starts.