On Sunday, I had the first of two NL-only keeper league drafts. I have participated in this league for 15 years now, and went into the draft with a pitching heavy keeper list, and gave consideration to punting SBs before the draft, but as the auction draft unfolded I found myself buying guys who I thought were undervalued who could be very profitable in 2011. We draft players on the 40 man rosters in this league, so I was targeting some of the better prospects.
Here are my draft results:
My draft result analysis after the jump:
The first guy I drafted was Manny Ramirez at $27. I went into the draft targeting Manny or Carlos Lee and wanted to pay under $25 for one of them, but the Dodgers fan in me went the few extra bucks. As a comparison, Carlos Lee and Matt Holliday each went for $30, and Jason Bay went for $28.
The next guy I bought was Jason Heyward. I brought him up and thought he would go for around $20 in the draft. But as I was bidding, I found myself thinking how much value he would have in 2011 at under $20. For comparison purposes, Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez went for $17 apiece, Jay Bruce went for $24 and Chris Coghlan and Drew Stubbs went for $16 apiece.
Entering the draft I wanted to guage the price of the top SB guys in the draft. Jimmy Rollins went early at $28, Jose Reyes went for $26. I liked Andrew McCutchen enough to pay $24, and then drafted Everth Cabrera for $17. I think McCutchen can steal 35+ bases this year, while E-Cab could steal 40+.
I also brought up Stephen Strasburg's name for bidding, and felt coming into the draft that he would go for close to $20, so I decided to price enforce up to $18 or so. I was happy to get him at $14, and had thoughts of him being a top 10 pitcher going into 2011 drafts. An owner sitting next to me kept commenting how expensive the starting pitchers were in this year's draft. He is right as Roy Halladay went for $32, Cole Hamels-$24, Tommy Hanson-$24, an injured Brandon Webb-$12, Jorge de la Rosa and Edwin Jackson-$14 and Aaron Harang-$12. I think Strasburg could be quite a value going into 2011 drafts at $14.
After buying Strasburg, McCutchen and Cabrera, my initial plan of going with a pitching and power heavy strategy went out the window. I had targeted Kyle Blanks coming into the draft, but he went off the board at $19 at a time when I had about $45 left on the table and about 8-9 spots to fill.
Buster Posey was another player I targeted coming into the draft, as I felt even though he may not see much action in 2010, he will see alot of time in 2011. I was surprised I was able to buy Posey so cheap at $5, but catchers do go pretty cheap in this league. As a comparison, Geovany Soto and Russell Martin went for $11 and $10, respectively. I think a full season of Posey will outperform both in 2010 and 2011.
With several of the top available third baseman off the board-David Wright at $30, Chipper Jones at $15 and Aramis Ramirez at $22, I found myself entering the bidding for Pedro Feliz and got caught price enforcing at $4. I didn't overpay for him, but I did not target him for sure.
To fill out my roster, I was also able to draft three other guys I targeted entering the draft with Ian Desmond at $4, Padres reliever Mike Adams at $1 and Nationals starter Jordan Zimmerman at $1. I had a chance to draft Edison Volquez at $2 or $3, but decided to pass to get Zimmerman. I am not sure that was the right decision or not, but time will tell. I also drafted Blake Dewitt at $1 as my corner guy.
I am not sure how this team will do this season, but as a fellow owner stated a few times during the draft, I could be the favorite heading into the 2011 season.