I was flipping through the Ron Shandler Baseball Forecaster yesterday and stopped to see what Shandler had to say about Nelson Cruz. Let's just say he likes him....alot.
Cruz had a very solid 2009 season hitting 33-76-20-.260-.331-.524, a Shandler PX (power) 160, and a SX (speed) 99. He increased his FB% from 37.9% in 2008 to 45.6% in 2009 and maintained his HR/FB% at 21.2% for oth 2008 and 2009. His BABIP was a little low at .280, so we could see an increase in his BA in 2010. He does strike out alot (K% of 25%) but walks a decent amount as well (BB% of 10%).
This is what Shandler had to say about Cruz:
Battled through nagging injuries and proved his '08 breakout was no fluke. Elite power and speed combo, and after another PX 160, power is legit, especially with added FB. Faded in Sept, but this was his first full season. UP-40 HR
Shandler projects him to go 36-103-18-.274-.341-.540 in 2010. Bill James has him projected for very similar numbers-36-98-21-.284-.354-.541.
Jayson Werth had a breakout season in 2009 hitting 36-99-.20-.268-.373-.506. Werth strikes out alot-K% of 27% but also walks alot-BB% of 13%. Like Cruz, Werth increased his FB% from 38% in 2008 to 44.4% in 2009, while his HR/FB% dropped slightly from 21.2% in 2008 to 19.3% in 2009. With that said Shandler sees a repeat in 2010.
Here are his comments:
FB% spike, patience says he looked for balls to drive. HR spike and elite PX (power) says he was successful. 87% SBO says SB should keep coming. H% says he wasn't particularly lucky. We say pay it again.
Shandler projects Werth to hit 35-98-20-.262-.361-.492, while Bill James see a slight regression to 28-88-17-.269-.369-.490 in 2010.