We move over to the American League East in the Avoida List series, starting with the Yankees:
Yankees: Derek Jeter stole 30 bases in 2009. 30 bases!!! That won't happen again, and he won't hit .334 in 2010. He benefitted from an elevated hit rate of 37% for the season, and a 41% hit rate in the second half of 2009 where he hit .358. Don't overpay, or over-draft, Jeter in 2010.
Red Sox: I would avoid J.D. "I can't go today, skip" Drew. OK, I am still bitter that he opted out of his contract a few years back in LA, but is he any better than Josh Willingham? Willingham can hit 25 bombs and drive in 70 runs in Washington's lineup. 'Nuff said.
Rays: What a great team name!! haha. Seriously, where did Jason Bartlett's power come from? And the BA? I don't see a repeat of his 14 bombs or .320 BA in 2010. Prior to 2009, the most HRs Bartett his in any season was 5. Bartett benefitted from an extremely high BABIP of .364 last year, compared to his career average BABIP of .327. Here are his HR/FB% over the last 5 years-4.6%, 2.0%, 3.2%, 0.9% and 8.7%. What number doesn't belong?
Orioles-here are Brian Roberts' SB totals the last three seasons-50-40-30, and his SB attempts-57-50-37. See the trend? He will be 33 years old in 2010, and reported to spring training with a herniated disc, which if persistent, will crush Roberts value in fantasy drafts, as his SB is trending down already.
Blue Jays: speaking of where did the power come from? Aaron Hill hit 36 HRs in 2009. How did he do it? Take a look at his HR/FB% trend over the last 5 years-4%, 4%, 9%, 2% 15%. Yep, 15% and his FB% happened to drop from 47% to 41% in 2009. The 36 HRs are more than double his career high. Don't pay for 36 HRs in 2010.
Who is LEAST likely to repeat their 2009 season?
This poll is closed