Fantasy Baseball: NL West Avoid List

Continuing in the Avoid List series, I take a look at the NL West today:

Dodgers-I have been down on Russell Martin for more than a year now. Martin's numbers are down across the board since his 2007 season where he was one HR away from a 20-20 season. Here are his trends-HR-19-13-7, RBI-87-69-53, BA-.293-.280-.250, SB-21-18-11, SB attempts-30-24-17 and SLG-.469-.396-.329. These are trends I want to stay away from.

Rockies-I am not a buyer of Dexter Fowler in 2010. Although he has a good BB rate of 13%, I think the Rockies outfield situation could lead Fowler to being the odd man out. Fowler will have to improve his switch hitting splits in 2010 to keep his starting job. In 296 ABs hitting left-handed, Fowler produced a slash line of .240-.357-.372. His slash line hitting right-handed was .321-.377-.482 in 137 ABs. Could his difficulties hitting left-handed lead to more playing time for Seth Smith in 2010? 

Giants-Matt Cain had a very good season in 2009, going 14-8 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and 171 Ks. His K/BB ratio increased to a career high of 2.34, but he still only strikes out just over 7 batters per 9 innings. He lowered his BB rate from 3.76 in 2008 to 3.02 in 2009. Cain's LOB%, or strand rate, was 82% in 2009, and I don't see him duplicating that in 2010. In addition, his FIP was a run higher than his ERA at 3.89.

Diamondbacks-Conor Jackson missed all of 2009 due to Valley Fever. In 2010, he will have to prove himself to fantasy owners that he can become a 20 HR threat yet he has never hit more than 15 HRs in a season. I don't see him reaching 20 HRs in 2010, and he could become a platoon player should the power potential not be realized.

Padres-Here are some disturbing trends for starting pitcher Chris Young-ERA-3.12-3.96-5.21, BB%-3.75-4.22-4.74, K%-8.69-8.18-5.92. HR/FB%-4.1%-8.7%-10%. That's all you need to know to stay away from Young in 2010.