We move to the NL Central Avoid List today, starting with the Cardinals:
Cardinals-which of these numbers do not belong-5.10, 4.54, 3.04, 3.55, 1.92? These are Ryan Franklin's ERAs for the last 5 years, and I don't see him duplicating his 2009 season in 2010. His second half WHIP of 1.70 and K/BB rate of 1.00 are not numbers you want from your closer in 2010. I can see him losing the closer job in 2010.
Cubs-the Cubs signed outfielder Marlon Byrd to a 3 year deal after Byrd had a career year in 2009 in Texas. I don't see Byrd finishing the year as the Cubs starting center fielder in 2010. Byrd sacrificed his BB rate for more power in 2009, as his BB rate dropped from 10% to 5% while his HRs doubled from 10 to 20. Prior to 2009, Byrd's career high in HRs was 10, and now he is moving out of a hitter friendly ballpark to the Windy City. He did increase his FB% from 32% to 40% in 2009, but that was a career high.
Astros-Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom will battle for the Astros closer job in 2010, but I would not want to draft either of them. Neither are big strikeout pitchers and that is exaclty what you want from your closer. There are better options in 2010.
Brewers-Casey McGehee caught alot of fantasy owners by surprise in 2009 going 16-66-.301-.360-.499, all numbers he has never achieved in his minor league career. I can see him losing the 3B job in 2010,
Reds-Scott Rolen will turn 35 in April, and is not the power hitter he once was. He hit only 11 HRs and drove in 67 in 2009, with a slash line of .305-.368-.455, certainly not the power you want from a corner infielder. One has to wonder why the Reds extended him with Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco in AAA.
Pirates-Ryan Doumit had trouble staying healthy in 2009, and then had some character issues that lead to his benching at one point. Injury issues aside, Doumit is one of the few Pirates who has not been traded over the last few years, so it would not surprise me to see him dealt to make room for catching prospect Tony Sanchez who Kevin Goldstein feels is very close to being major league ready.