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Fantasy Baseball: NL East Avoid List

In response to the reader survey, I am starting the Avoid List, starting with the NL East:

Phillies-the player I am avoiding in drafts is Raul Ibanez. I am not sold on him repeating his 2009 season, even playing in Citizen's Bank Park and in that lineup. As a 37 year old, Ibanez hit 34 HRs and drove in 93, with a slash line of .272-.347-.552. Ibanez had a monster first half of 2009 going 22-60-.309-.367-.649, but slumped in the second half going 12-33-.232-.343-.587. Strange that he hit 21 of his 34 HRs on the road. He didn't hit higher than .258 in any of the last four months of the season. Note-I am also avoiding J.A. Happ. I don't see him repeating his 2009 season, and his 85% strand rate, in 2010.

Marlins-Chris Coghlan is the Marlin I am avoiding and I wrote about him here. He won't repeat the 40% Hit rate that he had in the second half of 2009, and he doesn't hit for much power.

Mets-Jose Reyes is the Mets player I am avoiding as the injruy risk is too much for me. I wrote about him recently here. The fact that manager Jerry Manuel is thinking about batting Reyes third in the Mets lineup tells me he may not run as much in 2010. Well, that and his injury history. Note-I am also avoiding closer Francisco Rodriguez and his declining K rate. I wroite about him here.

Braves-I am avoiding any outfielder not named Nate McLouth as one of Matt Diaz, Melky Cabrera with outfield prospect Jason Heyward just a phone call away. Heyward, if he doesn't win the RF job out of spring training, should be called up by June 1st at the latest. Draft accordingly.

Nationals-I am avoiding Christian Guzman and Adam Kennedy as they are the projected starters at SS and 2B, but with Ian Desmond in AAA, and the youth of the team, I could see Desmond getting more at bats than both of them in 2010.