Back on November 4th, I wrote this trade rumor article discussing the return would be should the Padres deal Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. In my proposed deal, I speculated that the Red Sox would have to deal Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Iglesias and Jed Lowrie for Gonzalez. Maybe it was too much, but Gonzalez won't come cheap.
On Friday night, we heard from ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes on what the Red Sox would have to give up in a deal for Gonzalez:
Trading Gonzalez now would allow Hoyer to address the multiple holes the club has entering the season while acquiring low-cost players that would remain under the team's control for up to six years.
According to the source familiar with the negotiations, the proposed deal centers only on minor leaguers, meaning the Red Sox would not lose star young reliever Daniel Bard. Hoyer and his assistant, Jason McLeod, who served as Boston's scouting director until going to San Diego, are intimately familiar with the Red Sox system. They almost certainly would seek pitcher Casey Kelly and first baseman Anthony Rizzo in any deal, with outfielder Ryan Kalish, shortstop Jose Iglesias, outfielder Josh Riddick, 19-year-old outfielder Reymond Fuentes, pitcher Stolmy Pimentel, and catcher Ryan Lavarnway also potential targets.
It is reasonable to assume it may take at least three top prospects to make a deal, with perhaps another minor leaguer or two of lesser skills included.
After reading this, maybe my speculated offer wasn't enough. Well, Lowrie is a major leaguer already, so he more than likely will not be included based on Edes article.
Taking a look at the Padres roster, I see alot of holes, especially in the infield. Once they deal Gonzalez, they will obviously need a first baseman, so Rizzo fills a need at first. They also need a second baseman, shortstop, and a younger outfielder. Iglesias could fill the need at shortstop, and Ryan Kalish could fill the need in the outfield. The Padres have plenty of outfielders on their 40 man roster, but Kalish's presence could push GM Jed Hoyer to deal right fielder Ryan Ludwick as well.
What follows is pure speculation, but does Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Ryan Kalish get a deal done? Or do the Red Sox have to throw on a few lower level prospects in addition to the 3 top prospects?
UPDATE (Saturday 8:44am): according to Nick Cafardo from the Boston Globe, the Red Sox and Padres have agreed upon a deal that would send Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. No word yet on who the Padres receive in return, but AGonz is in Boston for a physical today. According to Buster Olney, the players involved have all been agreed up and the Red Sox have been granted a negotiation window to extend a long term contract to Gonzalez.
UPDATE (Saturday 10:20am): Dan Hayes from the San Diego North County Times tweeted the following:
Hearing that #RedSox package for Adrian Gonzalez includes: Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and
Fuentes is the Red Sox 6th rated prospect according to Baseball America, who hit .270-.328-.377 with 5 HRs, 41 RBIs and 42 SBs in 47 attempts. BA compares him to Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran.