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I wasn't planning on writing a second part of the outfielder rankings, but there were plenty of guys I could have included in the 10-12 range, so I decided to add Part 2, or outfielders ranking from 13-24.
Here is the first part of the 2011 outfielder rankings.
Here is the second part of the outfielder rankings for 2011:
13. Alex Rios, CHW (RF)-Rios was solid in his first year in Chicago, hitting .284-.334-.457 with 21 HRs, 88 RBIs, 89 runs and 34 SBs. His 2010 BABIP and triple slash line was near his career averages, so I tend to think that his 2009 season was an aberration. His HR/FB rate was the highest of his career, so I think he can duplicate the power playing in Chicago's hitter-friendly stadium (I can't keep track of the ballpark names). Can he go 20-30 in 2011? I think so.
14. Corey Hart, MIL (RF)-Hart reached the 30 HR, 100 RBI level for the first time in 2010, and I wonder whether he can sustain that power heading into 2011. What I do believe is that he will be running more in 2011 under Ron Roenicke. Yes, I sound like a broken record, but Roenicke is an aggressive manager. Hart's HR/FB% ballooned to 16.8% from 8.8% in 2009, and his FB% also increased from 42% to 44%. I am not confident he can maintain the high HR/FB rate, but I see a 20-20 season as a possibility in 2011, and he could easily move up these rankings.
15. Andre Ethier, LAD (RF)-Ethier had a very hot start to the 2010 season which saw him hit .329 in April and .453 in May, but then he injured a pinky and was not the same hitter the rest of the season. As a result, his power numbers dropped from 31-106 to 23-82 in 2010, but his triple slash line improved slightly from .272-.361-.508 to .292-.364-.493. His K% and BB% stayed relatively constant, and his ISO dropped slightly from .237 to .201. If healthy, Ethier could approach 30 HRs again in 2011, with a solid BA and RBI totals.
16. Nelson Cruz, TEX (RF)-I wonder how many HRs Cruz would hit if he could stay healthy for 600 at bats. Cruz hit .318-.374-.576 with 22 HRs, 78 RBIs and 17 SBs in just under 400 at bats in 2010. He benefitted from a .348 BABIP, but had a solid K rate of 20% and walk rate around 9%. Cruz hits alot of flyballs with FB rates around 45% the last two seasons, and excellent HR/FB% , so he could have a 30 HR season in the near future. I won't be as optimistic as he is an injury risk, but I could see a 25 HR-85 RBI-15 SB season in 2011.
More after the jump:
17. Jay Bruce, CIN (RF)-Bruce's BABIP increased from .221 in 2009 to .334 in 2010, resulting in a bump in his triple slash line to .281-.353-.493. While many expected him to hit 30 HRs in 2010, he didn't come close, but did hit 25 HRs while driving in 70. Bruce hit 15 HRs in the last two months of the season while hitting .333 in August and .346 in September. Another promising stat is his BA against lefties-.277. Bruce is on the cusp of a 30 HR season, but could benefit from a few less strikeouts.
18. Shane Victorino, PHI (CF)-Victorino almost doubled his HR output from 10 HRs in 2009 to 18 HRs in 2010, and increased his SBs from 25 to 34, while his BABIP dropped from .315 to .273. As a result, his BA dropped from .292 to .259. So, is the power jump sustainable? Well, his FB rate increased from 33% to 38% and his HR/FB% almost doubled to 9.5%, so as long as he keeps hitting more flyballs, and he very well could, he could hit 15-18 HRs and steal 30+ bases again in 2011.
19. Jose Bautista, TOR, (LF)-Bautista went from hitting .235-.349-.408 with 13 HRs and 40 RBIs in 2009 to hitting .260-.378-.617 with 54 HRs and 124 RBIs with his BABIP DROPPING from .275 to .233! Explain that! Well, his FB% jumped from 42% to 55% and his HR/FB% increased from 12.3% to 21.7%. His K% dropped from 25% to 20% and he increased his BB% a bit as well. Can he repeat his 2010 season? Hell no. But, I see him hitting 30+ HRs, 90 ribbies with a low BA....let's say .250ish.
20. Nick Swisher, NYY (RF)-Swish-a-licious, as John Sterling likes to call him, had a very solid season in 2010, hitting .288-.359-.911 with 29 HRs and 89 RBIs. In his 6 big league seasons, he has average 25 HRs and 82 RBIs. His BABIP of .335 in 2010 was a career high, so I could see a regression in his BA in 2011, but he should be good for a season right around his career average of 25 HRs-80 RBIs.
21. Chris Young, ARI (CF)-Young proved that his performance after returning from a demotion to AAA in 2009 was for real, as he hit .257-.341-.452 with 27 HRs, 91 RBIs, 94 runs, and 28 SBs. Young enters his age 27 season in 2011, so he could repeat his excellent 2010 season, possibly approaching a 30-30 season. If he could just hit .280-.290, he would be a top 5 outfielder, and late first or second round pick in fantasy drafts.
22. Drew Stubbs, CIN (CF)-Stubbs is a clone of Chris Young, with slightly less power. Stubbs had a breakout season in 2010, hitting just .255-.329-.444 with 22 HRs, 77 RBIs and 30 SBs. The power came out of nowhere, but he has always had the speed to steal 30 bases. Stubbs is the outfield version of Mark Reynolds, as he strikes out a ton-33% in 2010, but he does get his fair share of walks-9.4% as well. Bill James projects him to hit 20 HRs and steal 35 bases in 2011, but with a .262 BA.
23. Juan Pierre, CHW-can you imagine where Pierre would rank if he hit double digit HRs every year? Top 5-6, maybe? Pierre stole 68 bases last year, and that is all you need to know about him as a hitter. Well, the triple slash line of .275-.341-.316 wasn't great, but with a guy like Pierre, all you want is for him to get on base, steal bases, and score runs. He scored 96 runs in 2010, and could score 100+ in 2011, as his BABIP and BA were his lowest since 2005 when he stole 57 bases and scored 96 runs. Look for Pierre to steal 60+ and score 100+ in 2011.
24. Colby Rasmus, STL (CF)-I was going to rank Bobby Abreu here, but I think Rasmus can has a better chance of 20 HRs and double digit SBs in 2011. He hit .276-.361-.498 with 23 HRs, 66 RBIs and 12 SBs last year, but, like Drew Stubbs and Chris Young, he strikes out alot. His K rate was 32% in 2010, which is very high, but he also had a nice BB rate at almost 12%. I think Rasmus is too good of a hitter to not continue to grow at the plate, reduce his Ks, and continue to hit for solid power. He could go 25-15 in 2011.
Here are the rest of my 2011 position rankings: