A few months back, I posted an article listing the leaders in K/100 pitches as some feel it is a stat that is a good predictor of success for a starting pitcher. This is an excerpt from my initial article:
Here is a quote from Rich Lederer's article over at Baseball Analysts:
As detailed in Strikeout Proficiency (Part Two), K/P has the highest correlation in each of the five run measures (ERA, R/G, ERC, FIP, and DIPS). K/BF has the second-highest correlation and K/IP has the lowest correlation. In any other words, K/P > K/BF > K/IP.
So, Lederer feels that his K/P is a better metric to rank starting pitchers than K/9 or K/IP. To calculate K/P, I used the following formula:
(K/Pitches thrown) * 100
I plan to take a look at this metric again at the end of the season providing year to date data along with second half data. It is not a surprise to see many of the top pitchers in baseball in the table above. I hope the second half data can provide some sleepers for 2011 fantasy drafts.
Here is a look at the K/100 pitches leaders for all of 2010:
|Morrow, Brandon SP TOR||146.3||2523||178||4.49||1.3804||10.95||15||10||7.055093|
|Lincecum, Tim SP SF||212.3||3437||231||3.433||1.2716||9.79||22||16||6.720978|
|Lester, Jon SP BOS||208||3357||225||3.245||1.2019||9.74||20||19||6.702413|
|Liriano, Francisco SP MIN||191.7||3021||201||3.616||1.2626||9.44||20||14||6.653426|
|Latos, Mat SP SD||184.7||2965||189||2.924||1.083||9.21||21||14||6.374368|
|Wainwright, Adam SP STL||230.3||3356||213||2.423||1.0507||8.32||25||20||6.346841|
|Sanchez, Jonathan SP SF||193.3||3233||205||3.072||1.231||9.54||14||13||6.34086|
|Weaver, Jered SP ANA||224.3||3713||233||3.009||1.0743||9.35||27||13||6.275249|
|Hamels, Cole SP PHI||208.7||3368||211||3.062||1.1789||9.1||21||12||6.264846|
|Kershaw, Clayton SP LA||204.3||3390||212||2.907||1.1794||9.34||23||13||6.253687|
|Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL||185||3199||200||3.843||1.3676||9.73||17||14||6.251954|
|Johnson, Josh SP FLA||183.7||2987||186||2.303||1.1053||9.11||23||11||6.226984|
|Hernandez, Felix SP SEA||249.7||3731||232||2.271||1.0574||8.36||30||13||6.218172|
|Lee, Cliff SP TEX||212.3||2981||185||3.179||1.0031||7.84||18||12||6.205971|
|Halladay, Roy SP PHI||250.7||3568||219||2.442||1.0412||7.86||25||21||6.137892|
|Oswalt, Roy SP PHI||211.7||3194||193||2.764||1.0252||8.21||24||13||6.04258|
|Chacin, Jhoulys SP COL||137.3||2304||138||3.277||1.2743||9.04||11||9||5.989583|
|Jimenez, Ubaldo SP COL||221.7||3600||214||2.883||1.1549||8.69||25||19||5.944444|
|Nolasco, Ricky SP FLA||157.7||2475||147||4.51||1.2812||8.39||16||14||5.939394|
|Lewis, Colby SP TEX||201||3301||196||3.716||1.1891||8.78||20||12||5.937595|
A couple guys that standout for me are the Giants Jonathan Sanchez, the Blue Jays Brandon Morrow and the Rockies Jhoulys Chacin. Also, 13 of the 20 pitchers listed are from the National League. And, of those 13, 6 pitch in the NL West, 3 pitch for the Phillies, and the Rockies and Giants have 2 pitchers apiece appearing on the list.
Morrow, he of the 18 K game in 2010, also led the majors with a 10.95 K/9 rate. He had an ERA of 4.49, but had an excellent FIP of 3.16 and xFIP of 3.63 in 2010. He is a sleeper for 2011 drafts.
Sanchez had a solid 2010 season, winning 13 games with an excellent 3.06 ERA, FIP of 4.00 and xFIP of 4.11. Was his 2010 season a bit fluky, or can we expect more of the same from Sanchez in 2011?
As I stated in the Tuesday night chat, I like Rockies starter Jhoulys Chacin alot. He started 21 games in 2010, winning 9 of them, with an ERA of 3.28, FIP of 3.54 and an xFIP of 3.74. As a starter in 2010, he held opponents to a triple slash line of .226/.319/.322 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.271 WHIP.