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Fantasy Baseball: Is Jason Heyward a Top 20 Pick in 2011?

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During our Tuesday night chat, one of the readers asked whether Jason Heyward is a Top 20 pick in 2012 fantasy drafts:

[Comment From Alec Trevelyan]
Does Jason Heyward become a top 20 pick for 2012?
Ray Guilfoyle:
I could see 2012, but did see him picked at 24 in a recent mock draft which is too high for me now
Jason Hunt:
Like the bond reference - I don't think he does by then - But probably close to there.

But let's see if Heyward is a Top 20 pick in 2011. In 2010, Heyward hit .277-.393-.456 with 18 HRs, 72 RBIs, 83 runs scored and 11 SBs. He struck out 25% of his ABs, but also had a healthy 15% walk rate. Bill James projects him to hit .295-.411-.493 with 22 HRs, 88 RBIs, 101 runs scored and 13 SBs in 2011.

In a recent mock draft, I saw guys like Mark Teixeira, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Howard, Felix Hernandez, Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia selected after the 20th pick. I think I would want each of these guys before drafting Heyward in a mixed league draft in 2011. Plus, Heyward has had his share of nagging injuries the last two season for me to not select him that high.

I would have to project Heyward to hit .300-25-100-15 to be considered in the Top 20 picks in 2011 fantasy drafts. I wouldn't be surprised he meets this projection, and i think he can hit 25 HRs in 2011, but am not sure he can reach 100 RBIs or hit .300.

For me, I could see taking him in the 3rd round of a 12 team, mixed league fantasy draft in 2011.