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Fantasy Baseball: OffSeason Keeper League Trade

I made my second offseason deal in the UBA NL-only keeper league on Thursday, a few days after trading Phillie outfield prospect Domonic Brown and Astros third baseman Chris Johnson for Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman.

So I dealt the #14 pick in the UBA minor league draft (the 2nd pick in the second round of the 2 round minor league draft) for Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez will carry a $29 S1 salary on my roster, but I was willing to deal for him for the following reasons:

1. Hit BABIP in 2010 was just .245, well below his career BABIP of .287.

2. Despite the career low BABIP and BA, he maintained a solid .211 ISO, which is just below his .217 ISO.

3. He hit a career high 57% flyballs, well above his career FB% of 46%. I don't think he can duplicate the 57% FB rate, but if he can maintain a FB% in the high 40% range, it increase his chances of hitting HRs.

4. Speaking of HRs, ARam hit 25 HRs in just 465 at bats. Can he hit 30 HRs in 2011?

5. In the last 3 months of the 2010 season, ARam hit .288-.331-.564 with 19 HRs and 60 RBIs. For the second half of 2010, his HR-RBI totals ranked 5th in the NL. Only guys like Albert Pujols, Adam Dunn and Carlos Gonzalez hit more second half HRs than Ramirez.

Some fellow UBA league owners have told me that Ramirez is a risk, and is on the downside of his career like Carlos Lee. Others said that Ramirez could have been had for less than $29 in the 2011 draft. All could prove to be correct. But I think Ramirez can hit 25-30 HRs and drive in 90-100 with a .280-290 BA in 2011. If so, he will be worth $29 in 2011.